Germany’s baffling reluctance to authorise the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine has highlighted Chancellor Scholz’s confusion over what is at stake in this war, but also Ukraine’s dependence on this sort of decision-making. This has been a difficult couple of weeks for Ukraine, with many civilian deaths and its hold on Bakhmut weakening. President Zelensky has warned that only with a major package of support can Russian forces, apparently indifferent to casualties, be overcome as they seek to consolidate their occupation of Ukrainian territory.
It’s not a proxy war. Ukraine is a victim. Victims who defend themselves are acting primarily in their own interests, since it is their lives, prosperity, future, dignity that are at stake. A proxy is one who acts primarily in the interests of a patron, which a victim under attack is not doing. Helping a victim makes her a beneficiary, not a proxy
Point 1. If Russia is hurting badly in this war and wants the ‘Western Inspired’ damage to cease it has the sure cure. It could stop this war of aggression, bring the troops back alive and unharmed (physically) and return to its borders. Bingo. No more war, no more damage from the West and glory be they’ll find that the Ukrainians and NATO have no intention of invading and endangering Moscow. If Russia doesn’t like being in a damaging ‘proxy war’ with the West they could stop it tomorrow with the only cost being embarrassment.
Point 2. I suggest that anyone who thinks the West (or anyone) could successfully lean on the Ukrainians to cede territory grossly over-estimate foreign influence and are dismally ignorant of Ukrainian politics. Any Ukrainian politician who suggested it would be run out of town!
Point 3 Only the naïve or Kremlin groupies can seriously think negotiations for a lasting peace are a chance with Putin. He is not a man to keep promises and all he cares about is Russian geo-strategic influence and staying in power.
Point 4 I see only two possibilities with Putin in power: a frozen conflict/bloody stalemate or the ejection of Russian forces from Ukraine. I think we can put aside the prospect of Russia conquering Ukraine or even substantial parts of it. They’ve blown their chance of it and their army is way too beaten up to achieve this in the foreseeable future.
It is a war between democracy and autocracy. Those lined up behind Russia are predominantly quasi fascist states (e.g., Iran, North Korea) and those behind Ukraine are universally democratic. If it is a proxy war, Russia is fighting for the rule of dictators and Ukraine is fighting for freedom. So, then, "proxy" loses its meaning.
While victory remains possible - however unlikely and costly - Putin will continue his war. This is because the costs are already so huge that only victory can possibly justify them. So the war can only end with Putin winning or his victory becoming manifestly and obviously impossible.
I construct this little narrative from my understanding of the Central Powers in WW1 with Russia as the Central Powers, .
Will NATO always try to provide support to prevent Putin's victory while at the same time never doing so enough to make his defeat obvious (fearful of "escalation")? This implies a long war and a wholly uncertain outcome.
Baffling? Not at all. Tanks (“landships”), much like ships on the water, have distinctive aesthetics that can be sorted by nationality. Russian tanks are a fine example of this: the T-55 resembles the T-62 or T-72 or T-80 or T-90 closely enough that all five would be recognizable as the products of a single material culture by a future “tank archaeologist.” Although similar in function, the Leopard 2 and the M1 Abrams are distinctive enough in design that the same expert would understand they came from different organizing societies. German politicians do not want distinctively-German tanks leading the assault against Russian positions in the Donbas.
As I understand it, the German stance is that the US must also commit to providing MBT before it allows Leopards to be supplied. What I don't understand is why the U.S. doesn't just pull some surplus Abrams out of storage (there are apparently hundreds if not thousands) and send them along with the full expectation that they will be merely symbolic. Don't worry about upgrades, the fuel economy or supply logistics, just let them sit in Kyiv or be photographed driving around a bit. If it unlocks this deadlock over Leopards it would be worth it.
Again, I greatly appreciate your explaining and analyzing war strategies, etc. in terms that neophytes such as I can understand. I follow news about the war to understand who did what where; I follow you to understand what it all means.
Great piece! Well written taking up different angles and lays out the forces at play and the complexity going forward.
You forget to mention the 50 CV90s IFVs from Sweden announced this week. Should enhance capabilities quite a bit since its considered one of if not the absolute best IFVs out there.
Outstanding article by Freedman. He simply cuts apart the proxy arguments of the appeasers and the anti-NATO critics. The simplistic, superficial reductionism of their positions is made obvious! Thank you Mr. Freedman!!! The cant that flies about over this issue is often overwhelming.
I see many writers, particularly Americans and those who aren’t paying attention to modern history, call baffling the German reluctance to provide Ukraine with main battle tanks. I think they are forgetting something.
WWII, the Great Patriotic War in Russian parlance, is still well remembered in Russia. The victory of Allied forces, of which the Soviet Union was part, is celebrated every year. During that war, countries bordering the Soviet Union, like Ukraine and Finland, actually sided with the nazis against what they considered the greater foe, i.e. the USSR. Russia has not forgotten that. Where do you think the talk of denazification comes from?
Neither have the Germans. The very idea of having German tanks battling Russian forces probably nauseates German politicians. It would perpetuate the old conflict and validate Russian claims of this being a fight against nazis (never mind that the political situation has changed since WWII).
I really hope the Leopards will be sent into Ukraine from Poland and other NATO states, letting Germany off the hook for right now.
1. The Ukrainian armed forces are the only armed forces that will directly drive Russia from Ukrainian territory, which is the result desired, for different reasons, by Ukraine and NATO.
2. This result will only be achieved by a decisive offensive victory or a series of decisive offensive victories on the ground.
3. An essential component of any decisive offensive victory is the possession of a sufficient number of main battle tanks preferably superior in quality to those possessed by the Russian forces, with the availability of the resupply of losses.
4. Ukraine lacks such a component and cannot produce it from its own industrial resources. Its present tank force is depleted and comprises inferior Russian models.
5. NATO is capable of providing such a component to Ukrainian forces.
6. The German Leopard 2 MBT is, by common consent, the best MBT available from within NATO. Firstly, it was apparently designed specifically to counter Russian tanks. Secondly, it is easier to operate that other available models such as the Abrams. Thirdly, it is, apparently, available in significant numbers within NATO forces; several thousand have been built and I understand Ukraine has asked for 300.
7. To achieve the common Ukrainian/NATO desired result, Leopard 2 MBTs should be supplied to Ukraine by Germany and other NATO countries which operate it, with German permission.
8. NATO must, therefore, ensure German commitment to this plan in the shortest period possible and, in any event well before a projected Spring start date for offensive action (including very possible Russian offensives).
9. This is by no means the only weapons system that Ukraine requires so Germany is not alone! As I have boringly argued before, NATO should seek to identify and supply redundant F15, 16 and 18 aircraft. The weakness in this view is that I don't know how easy it would be for Ukrainian pilots to learn to fly them effectively. Further, artillery systems should b enhanced to attack force concentrations in Russia; this is not January/February 2022, with any room for a will they, won't they invade argument. We know they will go to Ukraine unless stopped.
The proxy vs puppet concept appears to be flawed. Ukraine is fighting a war of independence from a former Imperial power. Russia after 30 years of granting its former colony independence reconsidered and embarked on the war to reconquer its ex-colony. Control of resources is proceeding hand in hand with subjugation, displacement and destruction of population. Western military aid is designed to prevent secondary conquest. Germany’s unwillingness to provide tanks is not related to the nature of war and is explained in part by uncertain popular support for delivery of offensive weapons. Eastern part of Germany after reunification maintains strongly anti American attitudes and more supportive of Russia. Ukraine’s future survival is on the line. This is the tragedy of the current phase of this war.
It’s not a proxy war. Ukraine is a victim. Victims who defend themselves are acting primarily in their own interests, since it is their lives, prosperity, future, dignity that are at stake. A proxy is one who acts primarily in the interests of a patron, which a victim under attack is not doing. Helping a victim makes her a beneficiary, not a proxy
Point 1. If Russia is hurting badly in this war and wants the ‘Western Inspired’ damage to cease it has the sure cure. It could stop this war of aggression, bring the troops back alive and unharmed (physically) and return to its borders. Bingo. No more war, no more damage from the West and glory be they’ll find that the Ukrainians and NATO have no intention of invading and endangering Moscow. If Russia doesn’t like being in a damaging ‘proxy war’ with the West they could stop it tomorrow with the only cost being embarrassment.
Point 2. I suggest that anyone who thinks the West (or anyone) could successfully lean on the Ukrainians to cede territory grossly over-estimate foreign influence and are dismally ignorant of Ukrainian politics. Any Ukrainian politician who suggested it would be run out of town!
Point 3 Only the naïve or Kremlin groupies can seriously think negotiations for a lasting peace are a chance with Putin. He is not a man to keep promises and all he cares about is Russian geo-strategic influence and staying in power.
Point 4 I see only two possibilities with Putin in power: a frozen conflict/bloody stalemate or the ejection of Russian forces from Ukraine. I think we can put aside the prospect of Russia conquering Ukraine or even substantial parts of it. They’ve blown their chance of it and their army is way too beaten up to achieve this in the foreseeable future.
It is a war between democracy and autocracy. Those lined up behind Russia are predominantly quasi fascist states (e.g., Iran, North Korea) and those behind Ukraine are universally democratic. If it is a proxy war, Russia is fighting for the rule of dictators and Ukraine is fighting for freedom. So, then, "proxy" loses its meaning.
While victory remains possible - however unlikely and costly - Putin will continue his war. This is because the costs are already so huge that only victory can possibly justify them. So the war can only end with Putin winning or his victory becoming manifestly and obviously impossible.
I construct this little narrative from my understanding of the Central Powers in WW1 with Russia as the Central Powers, .
Will NATO always try to provide support to prevent Putin's victory while at the same time never doing so enough to make his defeat obvious (fearful of "escalation")? This implies a long war and a wholly uncertain outcome.
Baffling? Not at all. Tanks (“landships”), much like ships on the water, have distinctive aesthetics that can be sorted by nationality. Russian tanks are a fine example of this: the T-55 resembles the T-62 or T-72 or T-80 or T-90 closely enough that all five would be recognizable as the products of a single material culture by a future “tank archaeologist.” Although similar in function, the Leopard 2 and the M1 Abrams are distinctive enough in design that the same expert would understand they came from different organizing societies. German politicians do not want distinctively-German tanks leading the assault against Russian positions in the Donbas.
As I understand it, the German stance is that the US must also commit to providing MBT before it allows Leopards to be supplied. What I don't understand is why the U.S. doesn't just pull some surplus Abrams out of storage (there are apparently hundreds if not thousands) and send them along with the full expectation that they will be merely symbolic. Don't worry about upgrades, the fuel economy or supply logistics, just let them sit in Kyiv or be photographed driving around a bit. If it unlocks this deadlock over Leopards it would be worth it.
Again, I greatly appreciate your explaining and analyzing war strategies, etc. in terms that neophytes such as I can understand. I follow news about the war to understand who did what where; I follow you to understand what it all means.
Great piece! Well written taking up different angles and lays out the forces at play and the complexity going forward.
You forget to mention the 50 CV90s IFVs from Sweden announced this week. Should enhance capabilities quite a bit since its considered one of if not the absolute best IFVs out there.
Outstanding article by Freedman. He simply cuts apart the proxy arguments of the appeasers and the anti-NATO critics. The simplistic, superficial reductionism of their positions is made obvious! Thank you Mr. Freedman!!! The cant that flies about over this issue is often overwhelming.
That seems like a very childish way of provoking me. You know better.
A Mushroom cloud or 2 might soon be hovering over Ukraine.
I see many writers, particularly Americans and those who aren’t paying attention to modern history, call baffling the German reluctance to provide Ukraine with main battle tanks. I think they are forgetting something.
WWII, the Great Patriotic War in Russian parlance, is still well remembered in Russia. The victory of Allied forces, of which the Soviet Union was part, is celebrated every year. During that war, countries bordering the Soviet Union, like Ukraine and Finland, actually sided with the nazis against what they considered the greater foe, i.e. the USSR. Russia has not forgotten that. Where do you think the talk of denazification comes from?
Neither have the Germans. The very idea of having German tanks battling Russian forces probably nauseates German politicians. It would perpetuate the old conflict and validate Russian claims of this being a fight against nazis (never mind that the political situation has changed since WWII).
I really hope the Leopards will be sent into Ukraine from Poland and other NATO states, letting Germany off the hook for right now.
This is relevant:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/22/vladimir-putin-ukraine-west-russia-president
1. The Ukrainian armed forces are the only armed forces that will directly drive Russia from Ukrainian territory, which is the result desired, for different reasons, by Ukraine and NATO.
2. This result will only be achieved by a decisive offensive victory or a series of decisive offensive victories on the ground.
3. An essential component of any decisive offensive victory is the possession of a sufficient number of main battle tanks preferably superior in quality to those possessed by the Russian forces, with the availability of the resupply of losses.
4. Ukraine lacks such a component and cannot produce it from its own industrial resources. Its present tank force is depleted and comprises inferior Russian models.
5. NATO is capable of providing such a component to Ukrainian forces.
6. The German Leopard 2 MBT is, by common consent, the best MBT available from within NATO. Firstly, it was apparently designed specifically to counter Russian tanks. Secondly, it is easier to operate that other available models such as the Abrams. Thirdly, it is, apparently, available in significant numbers within NATO forces; several thousand have been built and I understand Ukraine has asked for 300.
7. To achieve the common Ukrainian/NATO desired result, Leopard 2 MBTs should be supplied to Ukraine by Germany and other NATO countries which operate it, with German permission.
8. NATO must, therefore, ensure German commitment to this plan in the shortest period possible and, in any event well before a projected Spring start date for offensive action (including very possible Russian offensives).
9. This is by no means the only weapons system that Ukraine requires so Germany is not alone! As I have boringly argued before, NATO should seek to identify and supply redundant F15, 16 and 18 aircraft. The weakness in this view is that I don't know how easy it would be for Ukrainian pilots to learn to fly them effectively. Further, artillery systems should b enhanced to attack force concentrations in Russia; this is not January/February 2022, with any room for a will they, won't they invade argument. We know they will go to Ukraine unless stopped.
The proxy vs puppet concept appears to be flawed. Ukraine is fighting a war of independence from a former Imperial power. Russia after 30 years of granting its former colony independence reconsidered and embarked on the war to reconquer its ex-colony. Control of resources is proceeding hand in hand with subjugation, displacement and destruction of population. Western military aid is designed to prevent secondary conquest. Germany’s unwillingness to provide tanks is not related to the nature of war and is explained in part by uncertain popular support for delivery of offensive weapons. Eastern part of Germany after reunification maintains strongly anti American attitudes and more supportive of Russia. Ukraine’s future survival is on the line. This is the tragedy of the current phase of this war.
Is Russia also a proxy for Iran and North Korea? Is this a proxy war between The USA and NATO on one side and Iran + North Korea on the other?