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Baltic Perspective's avatar

Interesting interpretation, but to me this reads as though the author is detached both temporally and spacially from what is the actual reality on the ground. As a native from Baltics I cannot afford the same interpretation.

Firstly, the whole conflict started eight years ago. What happened in the last eight months shocked the west, but do not make this your reference point. Orcs had eight years to numb any feelings or thoughts of peace.

Secondly, they lie. About everything. To everyone. This is the soviet legacy. They lie, others know that they lie, they know that others know that they lie, and others know that they know that others know that they lie. This is why the USSR collapsed. So unless orcs are given no other choice but to accept their failure, they will lie until they get their way. And it is pointless to speculate otherwise, make western-logic based considerations, or consider the leadership to be anything more than a group of orcs.

Thirdly, assess the factual evidence. Ukraine has natural resources which could rival Russia, and that is an existential threat to orcs. They commit war crimes. They attack civilians. They destroy civilian infrastructure. They wage hybrid war. They oppress their own population. They threaten nuclear holocaust. And they know all this themselves. Does this limited amount of factors even play into "let's make peace" equation? Because if it does, there would be absolutely no doubt that peace is not an option for orcs. Never was, and never will be.

So forget the naive notions of any negotiated outcomes. Peace must be imposed by means of superior firepower. Help Ukraine achieve this and stop detracting by speculating otherwise.

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Michael Wild's avatar

Thanks for another great article that deals with an important but rarely asked question – why is Putin not showing no interest in genuine negotiations. My guess is there is no well thought out strategy going on here. It’s just a matter of kicking the can down the road and hoping that Ukraine and Western backers will fold. I think Lawrence is right – Putin won’t want to risk anything but clear success while the present situation of losing slowly seems bearable in the short and medium term.

That said I’m not sure Putin’s hope for Ukraine and his allies folding is well founded. The Ukrainians will be motivated to fight for a very long time. As for the allies, I’m suspect they’ll think that Russia’s military and economic strength dissipating in a long war is a much preferable to dealing with Russia if it succeeds in Ukraine. The Baltic Nations and Poland will argue this strongly. As long as Western soldiers aren’t dying I think public opinion will tolerate a long war and Putin has made himself so toxic to Western public opinion that doing what he would like would be politically costly.

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