Great piece. One (minor) caveat - can we all, including you, stop making excuses or using euphemisms for the dreadful John Mearsheimer? He is not 'inimitable' he is a Russian apologist. He is so lost in his fixation with 'offensive realism' that he has lost his moral compass. Having been so central to this particular spin on neorealism he would now rather see Ukraine lose than have his academic prognostications challenged. As Lenin realised there is no idiot more useful than the intelligent idiot in love with their own intellect.
For sure. My feeling though is Mearsheimer needs to be called out very directly. Too many, not Dr Freedman of course, still accord him some academic credibility.
"Strategically naïve" is a perfect description of the NYT coverage of the war and of the cited critics in this article. The dectruction of the Seym River bridges means that Ukrainian forces have a protected flank are not going to be "surrounded by superior forces," at least not in the short term and unlikely in the longer term in a manner that Ukraine will be unable to adjust their strategy to. Time will tell if this attack by Ukraine was the right move but I admire their aggressive and courageous spirit!
As so often before Lawrence, your always excellent analysis suggests that the Ukrainians know their enemy much better than the twitterati in the West. Perhaps we should listen to them more carefully
Like Hobbits, they bemoan disruption of the beloved yesteryear order, and pine for the good old times in The Shire, where everyone and everything had its place.
The commentators mainly on X, some of whom you quote, are hard to follow. So it is a great relief to read your balanced, clear and honest post rather than the word salad of acronyms identifying forces of either side, equipment and assumptions or guesses as to what is happening.
An excellent piece that shows the virtue of resisting "quick judgments" and systematically looking at future possibilities.
Besides increasing the exchange fund with POW Russian conscripts who give up, other conscripts are dying as Ukraine is imposing attrition on the conscript-manned Russian forces moving to the battle. The destroyed convoy of the 44th Corps was probably full of conscripts. These are the men who were promised they would not go to the SMO. Some deaths matter more than others in Russia, and this is another Putin promise that is not working out. Real pain is at the heart of attrition beyond the simple exchange ratio.
I did think Ukraine embarked on a very risky campaign but Russian response has been inept so far . Perhaps another surprise Ukrainian mini- offensive is in the offing ?
Great piece. One (minor) caveat - can we all, including you, stop making excuses or using euphemisms for the dreadful John Mearsheimer? He is not 'inimitable' he is a Russian apologist. He is so lost in his fixation with 'offensive realism' that he has lost his moral compass. Having been so central to this particular spin on neorealism he would now rather see Ukraine lose than have his academic prognostications challenged. As Lenin realised there is no idiot more useful than the intelligent idiot in love with their own intellect.
Agreed, though I think that Dr Freedman may have been using the term with deep irony...
For sure. My feeling though is Mearsheimer needs to be called out very directly. Too many, not Dr Freedman of course, still accord him some academic credibility.
"Strategically naïve" is a perfect description of the NYT coverage of the war and of the cited critics in this article. The dectruction of the Seym River bridges means that Ukrainian forces have a protected flank are not going to be "surrounded by superior forces," at least not in the short term and unlikely in the longer term in a manner that Ukraine will be unable to adjust their strategy to. Time will tell if this attack by Ukraine was the right move but I admire their aggressive and courageous spirit!
As so often before Lawrence, your always excellent analysis suggests that the Ukrainians know their enemy much better than the twitterati in the West. Perhaps we should listen to them more carefully
Listen to the Ukrainians that is
NYT, WaPo, WSJ - so disappointing, so overrated ...
Like Hobbits, they bemoan disruption of the beloved yesteryear order, and pine for the good old times in The Shire, where everyone and everything had its place.
Thank you for your excellent summary.
The commentators mainly on X, some of whom you quote, are hard to follow. So it is a great relief to read your balanced, clear and honest post rather than the word salad of acronyms identifying forces of either side, equipment and assumptions or guesses as to what is happening.
An excellent piece that shows the virtue of resisting "quick judgments" and systematically looking at future possibilities.
Besides increasing the exchange fund with POW Russian conscripts who give up, other conscripts are dying as Ukraine is imposing attrition on the conscript-manned Russian forces moving to the battle. The destroyed convoy of the 44th Corps was probably full of conscripts. These are the men who were promised they would not go to the SMO. Some deaths matter more than others in Russia, and this is another Putin promise that is not working out. Real pain is at the heart of attrition beyond the simple exchange ratio.
It would seem an excellent moment for Georgia to go and retrieve the 20% of their country Russia stole.
Hmm, not thought of that. I bet the Georgians have.
I did think Ukraine embarked on a very risky campaign but Russian response has been inept so far . Perhaps another surprise Ukrainian mini- offensive is in the offing ?