Basically, Russia's offensive went poorly enough that Ukraine is on track. Not sure if Ukraine has the artillery it needs. Or longer range missiles yet to back up the Russian supply chain again.
Thank you Lawrence, a great paper (as usual) but this one has struck me as standing even higher than others; perhaps amongst the most insightful and thoughtful of any articles, by any author, on the war I have yet seen. Cheers!
Sit down negotiate the best possible deal than have the people vote on it in Ukraine and maybe even Russia. Cease fire with no movement or arms supplies til post decision.
Nothing to lose....much to gain: no more needless deaths.
Thank you for this... I suspect we want Ukraine to win just enough to negotiate, but not completely. Our own geopolitics may be more about what kind of Russia and China come out of this. There is too much reluctance, it seems, to give Ukraine what it needs to prevail and kick the Russians out completely. I hope I am wrong. Time is not on Russia's side nor Ukraine's but I think Ukraine is and will be suffering more.
A sobering read, as always. However, Ukraine is still condemned to fight with an arm and a leg tied behind its back, as the West remains in self-deterrence mode, yet increasingly appearing to expect a success. I smell a rather perfidious strategy here.
It is tempting to think of defence as simpler than offence: the defenders simply have to sit back and wait until the attackers act and then respond. But defence requires a great deal of skill in anticipating the offensive actions and being prepared and ready to respond, in the right way, at the right time, in the right position. It also requires significant leadership in maintaining morale and discipline, not only when artillery attacks but perhaps more so when nothing is or appears to be happening. One of the themes I recall from early in the war concerned the relative poverty in skill and leadership of Russian junior officers and NCOs. A few weeks ago, the Institute for the Study of War observed that the Russian officer class had been "eviscerated" in the war. One example on the path to becoming eviscerated is the fate of the Spesnatz brigade commander referred to in the article above. Another example is the assembling of the armour behind the smokescreen at Vuldehar (although perhaps it was difficult to know what else to do in the circumstances and "doing something" rather than nothing may have had some attraction, for a brief moment). All in all, it does not appear that the skill set has been enhanced or the numbers with the requisite skills enlarged over the past year and therefore the prospects for a successful Russian defence look bleak. It may be one thing to force your troops to attack with guns at their backs; it will less easy to prevent them clandestinely exiting camp by night.
Meanwhile, Zelensky can continue to channel his inner Churchill: "Give us the tools, and we will finish the job." There may be a time for considering whether the Ukrainians can succeed in liberating their country but that time is not now. Now is the time for NATO to make maximum effort to ensure they succeed.
"The more robust Russian redoubts may require a preparatory stage of artillery strikes that goes on for days, so that by the time Ukrainian troops move forward they are taking on an exhausted enemy caught among shattered fortifications."
Brilliant, as always. Thank you!
Even if Putin falls, if personalities like Dugin dominate Russian thinking, we are set for many years of a very pricklish neighbour.
Chances for success? Our academic prediction market has Ukraine's odds of taking back at least one major city at 35-44%. https://insightprediction.com/m/201557/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-seiveirodonetsk-kreminna-lysychansk-melitopol-mariupol-tokmak-donetsk-or-svatove-by-september-15th And 20-25% for cutting the land bridge.
Basically, Russia's offensive went poorly enough that Ukraine is on track. Not sure if Ukraine has the artillery it needs. Or longer range missiles yet to back up the Russian supply chain again.
Thank you Lawrence, a great paper (as usual) but this one has struck me as standing even higher than others; perhaps amongst the most insightful and thoughtful of any articles, by any author, on the war I have yet seen. Cheers!
Excellent
Sit down negotiate the best possible deal than have the people vote on it in Ukraine and maybe even Russia. Cease fire with no movement or arms supplies til post decision.
Nothing to lose....much to gain: no more needless deaths.
Thank you for this... I suspect we want Ukraine to win just enough to negotiate, but not completely. Our own geopolitics may be more about what kind of Russia and China come out of this. There is too much reluctance, it seems, to give Ukraine what it needs to prevail and kick the Russians out completely. I hope I am wrong. Time is not on Russia's side nor Ukraine's but I think Ukraine is and will be suffering more.
A sobering read, as always. However, Ukraine is still condemned to fight with an arm and a leg tied behind its back, as the West remains in self-deterrence mode, yet increasingly appearing to expect a success. I smell a rather perfidious strategy here.
It is tempting to think of defence as simpler than offence: the defenders simply have to sit back and wait until the attackers act and then respond. But defence requires a great deal of skill in anticipating the offensive actions and being prepared and ready to respond, in the right way, at the right time, in the right position. It also requires significant leadership in maintaining morale and discipline, not only when artillery attacks but perhaps more so when nothing is or appears to be happening. One of the themes I recall from early in the war concerned the relative poverty in skill and leadership of Russian junior officers and NCOs. A few weeks ago, the Institute for the Study of War observed that the Russian officer class had been "eviscerated" in the war. One example on the path to becoming eviscerated is the fate of the Spesnatz brigade commander referred to in the article above. Another example is the assembling of the armour behind the smokescreen at Vuldehar (although perhaps it was difficult to know what else to do in the circumstances and "doing something" rather than nothing may have had some attraction, for a brief moment). All in all, it does not appear that the skill set has been enhanced or the numbers with the requisite skills enlarged over the past year and therefore the prospects for a successful Russian defence look bleak. It may be one thing to force your troops to attack with guns at their backs; it will less easy to prevent them clandestinely exiting camp by night.
Meanwhile, Zelensky can continue to channel his inner Churchill: "Give us the tools, and we will finish the job." There may be a time for considering whether the Ukrainians can succeed in liberating their country but that time is not now. Now is the time for NATO to make maximum effort to ensure they succeed.
"The more robust Russian redoubts may require a preparatory stage of artillery strikes that goes on for days, so that by the time Ukrainian troops move forward they are taking on an exhausted enemy caught among shattered fortifications."
http://espritdecorps.ca/history-feature/the-majillses-go-to-war-mcgill-universitys-7th-siege-battery-at-vimy
Morning of August 8 1918 Amiens, with good engineering, less than three hours. Ring a bell?
Would have rung a bell for my grandfather.
https://www.lermuseum.org/first-world-war-1914-18/1918/amiens-the-black-day-of-the-german-army-8-aug-1918/
https://www.lermuseum.org/first-world-war-1914-18/1917/flash-spotting-and-sound-ranging-jan-mar-1917
https://www.bac-lac.gc.ca/eng/discover/military-heritage/first-world-war/first-world-war-1914-1918-cef/Pages/item.aspx?IdNumber=370482
PS the Ukraine fights like our two mobs fought , ' I dips me lid to the Ukraine'
Let's hope it's over soon.
along with meticulous coordination suprise was a big factor in Amiens
Can the Ukraine do that, time will tell.
Indeed