(Photo by Contributor/Getty Images) In my last post I asked whether Ukraine could win this war, to which I answered it could, although it was not yet clear whether it would. In this post I want to expand on one of the reasons I came to this conclusion.
The idea that the Russian military is holding back some significant, potentially game-changing, forces is risible. Likewise the idea that they can generate new well-trained units faster than they're losing them. The entire Russian state lacks sustainability, even though in some areas they put more thought into it that Western nations. The Russian economy is based on resource extraction, and yet in most areas it cannot extract, never mind refine, these resources without heavy reliance on Western technology and plant. The fact that the Russian Army is stripping it's training establishments to form ad-hoc battalions should be all the evidence we need to understand that they are going all-in, and in a very unsustainable manner. If Russia can't claim a victory and negotiate a peace treaty within the next 2-3 months then they will cease to be able to raise news units. Or rather, they could decide to formally call up the reserves and deploy conscripts, but there will be very little institutional infrastructure remaining to train them, and they will be next to useless. Russia may be holding back, or at least carefully husbanding, some of it's aviation and strategic missile assets, but at this stage I don't think deploying them would make much difference to the big picture. If Western support continues at the current rates, Russia will not be able to make any significant advances, and Ukraine will gain the strategic initiative and probably start to push Russian forces back. As that happens, and I know this isn't a very popular view, there will have to be conversations about whether Western support extends to removing Russian control over *all* of the Donbass, and possibly Crimea, as I think the Russian reaction to that could be extreme and highly damaging for all parties.
What it's really about is the last gasp of a second failed state in 32 years. In my opinion Russia has been so looted that Putin needs continuous distractions for his people. I won't be surprised if he's about to give Iran a nuke, or some form of crisis, as the latest crisis to draw attention away. Regardless, agree on most points, solid analysis.
The idea that the Russian military is holding back some significant, potentially game-changing, forces is risible. Likewise the idea that they can generate new well-trained units faster than they're losing them. The entire Russian state lacks sustainability, even though in some areas they put more thought into it that Western nations. The Russian economy is based on resource extraction, and yet in most areas it cannot extract, never mind refine, these resources without heavy reliance on Western technology and plant. The fact that the Russian Army is stripping it's training establishments to form ad-hoc battalions should be all the evidence we need to understand that they are going all-in, and in a very unsustainable manner. If Russia can't claim a victory and negotiate a peace treaty within the next 2-3 months then they will cease to be able to raise news units. Or rather, they could decide to formally call up the reserves and deploy conscripts, but there will be very little institutional infrastructure remaining to train them, and they will be next to useless. Russia may be holding back, or at least carefully husbanding, some of it's aviation and strategic missile assets, but at this stage I don't think deploying them would make much difference to the big picture. If Western support continues at the current rates, Russia will not be able to make any significant advances, and Ukraine will gain the strategic initiative and probably start to push Russian forces back. As that happens, and I know this isn't a very popular view, there will have to be conversations about whether Western support extends to removing Russian control over *all* of the Donbass, and possibly Crimea, as I think the Russian reaction to that could be extreme and highly damaging for all parties.
What it's really about is the last gasp of a second failed state in 32 years. In my opinion Russia has been so looted that Putin needs continuous distractions for his people. I won't be surprised if he's about to give Iran a nuke, or some form of crisis, as the latest crisis to draw attention away. Regardless, agree on most points, solid analysis.
Thank You Sir. Equanimous, eagle-eyed, agglomerated. Something a Physician can entrust and appreciate.
thank you
Excellent analysis as always, thank you.