The Alliance certainly seem to be getting lots of volunteers out campaigning, if social media is indicative at least. Often a younger age profile too than one sees elsewhere.
Excellent analysis of the Northern Ireland state of play. I'm from Belfast and although I moved to London after Uni I still closely follow the politics. (I can't not) I've watched the Alliance Party grow from strength to strength and really hope they do well this GE. I'm one of those rare people from a 'mixed' background and so they are my natural home. FYI I'm really enjoying these posts and seat-by-seat analysis.
On Tiverton and Minehead, I spent a week helping an old friend who is a Conservative County Councillor in the 2022 county election (a year after the rest because of a change to unitary authority) in a division which was part of Liddell Grainger's old seat. As you observe, this is a seat where a split in the anti-Conservative vote gives Liddell-Grainger a chance. However I was forcefully struck by how many people expressed vehement dislike of Liddell-Grainger and complained of his lack of attention to constituents and failure to provide substantive responses to them. I was sufficiently concerned about one case (where I was shown clear evidence of a failure to help on a serious matter) that I wrote to the then Chief Whip about it. I am inclined to think that one reason the Conservatives may be in trouble generally is that such matters came to their attention at a high level they did nothing. I think Liddell Grainger may be vulnerable on this count.
Quick suggestion for the NI seats: given that they do end up being predictions, might it be worth adding the "Current Holder / Majority / Prediction" information in those, in the same way as for Sam's predictions for GB? (Unless Sam's planning on writing his own predictions for NI?)
I’m now very aware that I’m exposing my technical numptitude to the entire world but..I’ve put Election Briefing into the Substack search engine & it only refers to ITV…
Click on the Substack name at the top (Comment is Freed) and then it will take you to the home page, where there are 5 smaller titles, and click on Election Briefing and you should find it.
I think the briefings are quite hard to find in the Substack app, compared with using the Substack website via a web browser. The two interfaces differ significantly! The instructions others suggest, such as going to the ‘Comment is freed’ main page and looking for the ‘Election briefing’ channel, don’t actually work in the app (iOS user here, Android users interface may be different again). I tend to keep posts I want to re-read in my Substack app inbox so I can find them easily.
I can confirm that the Android app navigation is equally dreadful. I can get to individual election briefing posts via Sam's emails but I just can't find the whole series.
Sam…am I dreaming or did you put a post out yesterday about the Surge of Reform & discussing SW constituencies?! I went to read it again & can’t find it!
France has joined in the UK's fun and games . Union of the left with their anti-semite radical Melonchonite colleagues is apparently "moral" whilst a similar union on the right with their supposedly radical colleagues who outgrew their anti-semitism after the war is "immoral". The tendency will be for France to head in the opposite direction to the UK as the people generally want to be shot of Macron and his set of empty and vapid clones.
The Alliance certainly seem to be getting lots of volunteers out campaigning, if social media is indicative at least. Often a younger age profile too than one sees elsewhere.
Also, it’s not just that the Labour Party doesn’t field candidates in Northern Ireland. You literally cannot join it.
I’ve written three essays on the election in NI already. It’s fascinating and the outcome could have profound effects.
Excellent analysis of the Northern Ireland state of play. I'm from Belfast and although I moved to London after Uni I still closely follow the politics. (I can't not) I've watched the Alliance Party grow from strength to strength and really hope they do well this GE. I'm one of those rare people from a 'mixed' background and so they are my natural home. FYI I'm really enjoying these posts and seat-by-seat analysis.
On Tiverton and Minehead, I spent a week helping an old friend who is a Conservative County Councillor in the 2022 county election (a year after the rest because of a change to unitary authority) in a division which was part of Liddell Grainger's old seat. As you observe, this is a seat where a split in the anti-Conservative vote gives Liddell-Grainger a chance. However I was forcefully struck by how many people expressed vehement dislike of Liddell-Grainger and complained of his lack of attention to constituents and failure to provide substantive responses to them. I was sufficiently concerned about one case (where I was shown clear evidence of a failure to help on a serious matter) that I wrote to the then Chief Whip about it. I am inclined to think that one reason the Conservatives may be in trouble generally is that such matters came to their attention at a high level they did nothing. I think Liddell Grainger may be vulnerable on this count.
Northern Ireland is one of the most intriguing provinces in the world
Quick suggestion for the NI seats: given that they do end up being predictions, might it be worth adding the "Current Holder / Majority / Prediction" information in those, in the same way as for Sam's predictions for GB? (Unless Sam's planning on writing his own predictions for NI?)
I'm going to do my own ones with predictions - albeit heavily influenced by Jon!
I’m now very aware that I’m exposing my technical numptitude to the entire world but..I’ve put Election Briefing into the Substack search engine & it only refers to ITV…
Click on the Substack name at the top (Comment is Freed) and then it will take you to the home page, where there are 5 smaller titles, and click on Election Briefing and you should find it.
Here’s a direct link to the piece you’re looking for: https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/understanding-the-reform-surge and it’s part of the ‘Election briefing’ series which can all be found here: https://samf.substack.com/s/comment-is-freed-election-briefing
I think the briefings are quite hard to find in the Substack app, compared with using the Substack website via a web browser. The two interfaces differ significantly! The instructions others suggest, such as going to the ‘Comment is freed’ main page and looking for the ‘Election briefing’ channel, don’t actually work in the app (iOS user here, Android users interface may be different again). I tend to keep posts I want to re-read in my Substack app inbox so I can find them easily.
I can confirm that the Android app navigation is equally dreadful. I can get to individual election briefing posts via Sam's emails but I just can't find the whole series.
I was stumbling towards that conclusion but you have both confirmed it & expressed it very clearly. Thanks stranger! 👍🏻
Sam…am I dreaming or did you put a post out yesterday about the Surge of Reform & discussing SW constituencies?! I went to read it again & can’t find it!
You need to look under Election Briefing!
France has joined in the UK's fun and games . Union of the left with their anti-semite radical Melonchonite colleagues is apparently "moral" whilst a similar union on the right with their supposedly radical colleagues who outgrew their anti-semitism after the war is "immoral". The tendency will be for France to head in the opposite direction to the UK as the people generally want to be shot of Macron and his set of empty and vapid clones.