In my previous post I explained why I thought that this war had begun badly for Russia and was likely to end badly. Even if the military campaign progressed with greater efficiency Putin was still likely to lose because he was following a delusional strategy – reflecting his belief that Ukraine was a non-state with no national identity, that Kyiv could be taken quickly, so that President Zelensky could be deposed, and that a compliant puppet regime could be installed in his stead. Nothing has yet happened to make me change that view.
This article has aged very badly. Perhaps most absurd is the claim that "we now enter the next stage of urban warfare" in Kiev and Kharkov, for which cases there has been no evidence of any attempted urban assault by Russian forces, much less planning or deployment to that end. Further, this bizarre assertion: "the first stage of conventional warfare to the next stage of urban warfare". Since when was urban warfare per se not conventional? "Incompetent" may seem charitably brief and restrained, as is my very selective sample here from this self-indulgent article's grossly partisan and misleading claims
When I look at the maps and the photos of the convoy I was at first puzzled. Why are the Russians so stuck north of Kiev while they are doing so well in creating the land bridge to Crimea.
1. Putin gets the war on track and takes Kiev, forcing Zelensky to flee the capital, installs a puppet government and calls a cease fire. Then there is a long insurgency.
2. Putin is overthrown as the oligarchs, the military and the public turn on him.
3. Putin sends a message to Biden telling him that if his is not able to take Kiev, force Zelensky to flee the capital, etc. then he will use an NEMP over Kiev.
In my opinion Putin has until March 15 to achieve 1., otherwise 2. will happen.
Putin will do 3. sometime between now and March 15.
I suspect that Biden will reveal Putin did 3. Then what happens is anyone's guess.
While only an casual observer from afar, I am worried about parallels with Syria.
While there are obvious differences, I'm comparing the sense of optimism, the plucky civilians fighting back, the initial support from western nations. Then concerns arose about the "legitimacy" of the opposition coupled with air strikes and a grinding never-ending onslaught that just overwhelmed a smaller force - with Russia pulling strings.
So, in the spirit of learning and adapting, I'd be interested in hearing Mr Freedman's perspective - both how this different AND what can be done to avoid a similar ending.
The Poles and the Baltic states must seriously contemplate whether this may be their one opportunity to stop Putin. They have to be thinking about going in, especially the Poles. It may be their only opportunity to protect their country. They know their history.
Always bad ideas to tangle with short men or men with little dicks. In this case there's probably a double jeopardy at work making the situation triply dangerous.
You do realise that you are commenting on an article written on 27 February?
fantastic read. thank you.
These articles by Lawrence on the Ukraine war are succinct, cogent and outstanding - many thanks for sharing your thoughts on this ongoing conflict.
This article has aged very badly. Perhaps most absurd is the claim that "we now enter the next stage of urban warfare" in Kiev and Kharkov, for which cases there has been no evidence of any attempted urban assault by Russian forces, much less planning or deployment to that end. Further, this bizarre assertion: "the first stage of conventional warfare to the next stage of urban warfare". Since when was urban warfare per se not conventional? "Incompetent" may seem charitably brief and restrained, as is my very selective sample here from this self-indulgent article's grossly partisan and misleading claims
When I look at the maps and the photos of the convoy I was at first puzzled. Why are the Russians so stuck north of Kiev while they are doing so well in creating the land bridge to Crimea.
It popped into my mind that we are being had by Putin. The convoy is mostly empty. All of his best forces are in the south. Then I realized that the plan is to occupy the entire Black Sea coast. Moving east past Odessa they could cut off Moldova from the coast and have a land connection to Transnistria https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TransnistrianRegionMap.png#/media/File:TransnistrianRegionMap.png
The land bridge to Crimea also expands the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk.
When he has the territory that he wants he will announce a cease fire.
Good narrative. Very sad situation (especially in Kyiv where I lived for 2 years and met a very nice people)
There are three ways this can end:
1. Putin gets the war on track and takes Kiev, forcing Zelensky to flee the capital, installs a puppet government and calls a cease fire. Then there is a long insurgency.
2. Putin is overthrown as the oligarchs, the military and the public turn on him.
3. Putin sends a message to Biden telling him that if his is not able to take Kiev, force Zelensky to flee the capital, etc. then he will use an NEMP over Kiev.
In my opinion Putin has until March 15 to achieve 1., otherwise 2. will happen.
Putin will do 3. sometime between now and March 15.
I suspect that Biden will reveal Putin did 3. Then what happens is anyone's guess.
Excellent as always thanks for sharing your thoughts
I don't see how Putin can get out of this now, even if he wanted to.
While only an casual observer from afar, I am worried about parallels with Syria.
While there are obvious differences, I'm comparing the sense of optimism, the plucky civilians fighting back, the initial support from western nations. Then concerns arose about the "legitimacy" of the opposition coupled with air strikes and a grinding never-ending onslaught that just overwhelmed a smaller force - with Russia pulling strings.
So, in the spirit of learning and adapting, I'd be interested in hearing Mr Freedman's perspective - both how this different AND what can be done to avoid a similar ending.
Good article Lawrence.
The Poles and the Baltic states must seriously contemplate whether this may be their one opportunity to stop Putin. They have to be thinking about going in, especially the Poles. It may be their only opportunity to protect their country. They know their history.
Thanks for the prompt reply. I have never before encountered the use of foreign currency on line. Will donate shortly.
How can an American subscribe in pounds? Please supply dollar amounts.
Always bad ideas to tangle with short men or men with little dicks. In this case there's probably a double jeopardy at work making the situation triply dangerous.