Good to read this Sam. I love the fact that you're reflecting on and assessing your own performance. I remember it was one of Dom's big themes that cut through with me that pundits never got their old predictions held up to them.
(I try to incorporate a version of this open reflection at the end of Board meetings I chair - how did that meeting go, how did it feel, where did we waste time, how could we be better? Some people find it uncomfortable but too bad! Feedback forms may seem more candid but they never get acted on and are just make-work for clerks.)
I think at the end you're moving towards identifying some of your cognitive biases and trying to consciously correct for them. Maybe you could do this more explicitly, running through a list of the main ones and taking them in turn? You're saying you get swayed by recency bias, for example (a form of proximity bias). Be interesting to look at the top 10 cognitive biases [or whatever].
This is (another) interesting post both the honest content and analysis but also the reality of undertaking such reflection. When a school senior leader I tried to encourage more reflection but I wish I had made it more an even more formal and proper process. Too often initiatives come into school from individuals from other bodies all with good intent but the mix doesn’t always work. Better feedback/reflection I think would have helped and in turn reduced some workload and improved standards. I recall an Ofsted inspector at an INSET encouraging new ways to give pupils feedback and I so longed for a sept lead in the discussion to say “well we are not changing, we think hard what we do and we get it right” which many did.
You’ve made me think about how we reflect in our professional work
With respect to elections, Sam you’ve got a pretty good batting average this year. I’m impressed. If you manage to keep it for a goodly number of years I’ll be very impressed.
1.My biggest "win" has been a comment just after Teresa May announced the 2017 election "I have a feeling it won't turn out like she thinks it will." Not exactly a prediction of a hung parliament but still not too shabby. Based on my feeling that there was no real enthusiasm for the Tories.
2. Biggest mistake - predicting that Boris Johnson would fudge a much softer Brexit Deal than he went for in the end. Although i still think if he had he might still be in power.
3. Still to be proved - Predicted just after the 2019 election that Tories would lose their majority in 2024 .
I don't think the Labour poll share has ever been as soft as claimed. Many commentators seem to ignore the demographic shift completely -never seem anyone factor in the early 2000s baby boom and the increased surplus deaths from COVID/NHS collapse for instance which will both affect the Labour vote share slightly.
As a New subscriber it’s nice to see self reflection. But it’s worth checking out how Matt Yglesias does his predictions on Slow Boring with a percentage of certainty
So I don't think I wrote stuff down, but here's quick list of things I got wrong this year.
I was right to trust the intelligence coming out from the Pentagon etc about Putin's invasion of Ukraine. But I thought victory would have been swift for the aggressors, based on being overtuned to the catastrophising everywhere among the commentariat. Didn't think to compare to historical examples of invasions which haven't gone as smoothly as imagined - which is nearly all of them.
Thought Macron would win re-election but more narrowly than in 2017, which is what happened; didn't foresee the success of the NUPES coalition denying him a majority, which I blame on being upset that "my people" (ie sensible centre-left types) had chosen to abase themselves to an utter crank.
Got the US midterms completely wrong - thought that the Republicans would cruise to victory on basis of extremely grim fundamentals for Biden. Didn't appreciate damage Trump continues to do to the Republican brand even when his needs isn't on the ballot paper, nor the impact of reversing Roe v Wade which turned out to be a much bigger issue than I thought for American voters.
Didn't foresee the roaring success of Brothers of Italy. I blame this partly on wishful thinking and partly on not appreciating the implications of Italy's new voting system. I will have mixed feelings on hearing the national anthem during next year's Six Nations - still a rousing tune to get you fired up for everyone's favourite underdog, except now the song has been co-opted by fascists.
Speaking of sport, I thought France would retain the World Cup. I'll give myself a pass on this one, I think. Fed up of hearing about how Messi is the GOAT.
As an American reader, I can say right off the top that I would like to see more American pundits have the humility to subject themselves to the kind of self-analysis you have done here. It would certainly be beneficial!
I've managed to turn on several British friends to your Substack forwarding it on to them, and since they seem to be Knowledgeable People and like what you are putting out, there's obviously value here, and I feel informed about a country I not only like but do business in (my publisher being British).
Thoughtful piece. I think my biggest mistake was a confidence that Johnson would continue on and fight and lose the next election- I thought that largely because I think leaders survive more than people think- eg. John Major 1990-7 or even Gordon Brown 2007-10 and May 2017-19. I expected a zombie Johnson government till the next election.
The Johnson/Sunak administration is really interesting. I wonder to what extent its a kind of reverse Edward Heath- come in with lots of ideas about spending money, and then enact vast government spending through the pandemic- then retreat to austerity under threat from inflation (the markets were purely about Truss's dash to deficits) and ending up with massive strikes across the country. I know you have written about this before, but my real worry is whether, if Labour gets in in 2024, they actually have the ability to deal with this or are thinking about the crisis in the right terms. It feels like a Wilson 1974 election where Labour might win in the short term but lose in the long run.
What do you think Labour's prospects for government are? (I know you have written about this but I wonder if that's the next big question coming). Another scenario- that you are giving about 20% in your thinking at the moment is that the Conservatives come back with a very small majority- could such a Conservative government under Sunak last, given the fact that the Tories are struggling to do anything with a majority of 80. One thing I think is interesting to compare is Cameron with a majority of 12 (2015-16) to Johnson/Sunak with one of 80 (2019-22)- I may be wrong but I feel like Cameron was more in charge of the Parliamentary agenda, despite his critics, then Sunak is- am I adopting rose tinted spectacles?
I've really enjoyed the articles from both Freedmans over the last year by the way.
Let me just say, I don't mind you being wrong at times. It is an inevitable part of writing intelligent comments. Your comments are in my opinion always smart and balanced even when I think they are wrong !
I am hoping that British politics will be less tumultuous next year enabling all commentators including yourself to focus on policy. Sunak has faults but compared to Johnson, who did not care about the rule of law, or Truss, whose arrogance meant excluding from the room anyone who might disagree with her, he brings a degree of rationality and stability. I have 'forgiven' Starmer for turning a blind eye at the time to Corbyn's antisemitism, so I will have to 'forgive' Sunak for supporting Brexit.
Newspapers in the UK often tend to focus on a purely British perspective except as in Ukraine or China where the problem is obviously international. Few have adequately covered the news from France which is experiencing GP and transport strikes. Problems of escalating inflation, the implications for the health service of ever improving technology and medical care, voluntary euthanasia, the future of education given a changing workplace, the treatment of addicts, the changing nature of policing — to mention just a few— are all common problems internationally. From the perspective of the Daily Mail (I suppose it counts as a newspaper) ignoring any international dimension enables them to ignore the reality that many problems and their solutions are pan European. From the perspective of the Guardian, ignoring that the problem is international enables you to blame any problem entirely on the Conservative government. I would love to see a set of Sam Freedman policy suggestions looking to draw on the experiences of other countries.
Thank you for your excellent articles over the past year.
Your substack had already paid for itself since I won £100 betting on Truss to be gone before Christmas 😁 Largely thanks is to your analysis which won me over
I suppose question is what does success look like? A 100% success rate seems too high a target given the uncertainty involved but how often, and by how much, can you go wrong?
Good to read this Sam. I love the fact that you're reflecting on and assessing your own performance. I remember it was one of Dom's big themes that cut through with me that pundits never got their old predictions held up to them.
(I try to incorporate a version of this open reflection at the end of Board meetings I chair - how did that meeting go, how did it feel, where did we waste time, how could we be better? Some people find it uncomfortable but too bad! Feedback forms may seem more candid but they never get acted on and are just make-work for clerks.)
I think at the end you're moving towards identifying some of your cognitive biases and trying to consciously correct for them. Maybe you could do this more explicitly, running through a list of the main ones and taking them in turn? You're saying you get swayed by recency bias, for example (a form of proximity bias). Be interesting to look at the top 10 cognitive biases [or whatever].
Have a good Christmas.
David
This is (another) interesting post both the honest content and analysis but also the reality of undertaking such reflection. When a school senior leader I tried to encourage more reflection but I wish I had made it more an even more formal and proper process. Too often initiatives come into school from individuals from other bodies all with good intent but the mix doesn’t always work. Better feedback/reflection I think would have helped and in turn reduced some workload and improved standards. I recall an Ofsted inspector at an INSET encouraging new ways to give pupils feedback and I so longed for a sept lead in the discussion to say “well we are not changing, we think hard what we do and we get it right” which many did.
You’ve made me think about how we reflect in our professional work
John Dexter
With respect to elections, Sam you’ve got a pretty good batting average this year. I’m impressed. If you manage to keep it for a goodly number of years I’ll be very impressed.
In the same spirit but not confined to this year;
1.My biggest "win" has been a comment just after Teresa May announced the 2017 election "I have a feeling it won't turn out like she thinks it will." Not exactly a prediction of a hung parliament but still not too shabby. Based on my feeling that there was no real enthusiasm for the Tories.
2. Biggest mistake - predicting that Boris Johnson would fudge a much softer Brexit Deal than he went for in the end. Although i still think if he had he might still be in power.
3. Still to be proved - Predicted just after the 2019 election that Tories would lose their majority in 2024 .
I don't think the Labour poll share has ever been as soft as claimed. Many commentators seem to ignore the demographic shift completely -never seem anyone factor in the early 2000s baby boom and the increased surplus deaths from COVID/NHS collapse for instance which will both affect the Labour vote share slightly.
Thanks a lot Sam. Wish other people were as honest as you. Easily the best £35 I've spent this year. Well done and keep up the good work.
As a New subscriber it’s nice to see self reflection. But it’s worth checking out how Matt Yglesias does his predictions on Slow Boring with a percentage of certainty
So I don't think I wrote stuff down, but here's quick list of things I got wrong this year.
I was right to trust the intelligence coming out from the Pentagon etc about Putin's invasion of Ukraine. But I thought victory would have been swift for the aggressors, based on being overtuned to the catastrophising everywhere among the commentariat. Didn't think to compare to historical examples of invasions which haven't gone as smoothly as imagined - which is nearly all of them.
Thought Macron would win re-election but more narrowly than in 2017, which is what happened; didn't foresee the success of the NUPES coalition denying him a majority, which I blame on being upset that "my people" (ie sensible centre-left types) had chosen to abase themselves to an utter crank.
Got the US midterms completely wrong - thought that the Republicans would cruise to victory on basis of extremely grim fundamentals for Biden. Didn't appreciate damage Trump continues to do to the Republican brand even when his needs isn't on the ballot paper, nor the impact of reversing Roe v Wade which turned out to be a much bigger issue than I thought for American voters.
Didn't foresee the roaring success of Brothers of Italy. I blame this partly on wishful thinking and partly on not appreciating the implications of Italy's new voting system. I will have mixed feelings on hearing the national anthem during next year's Six Nations - still a rousing tune to get you fired up for everyone's favourite underdog, except now the song has been co-opted by fascists.
Speaking of sport, I thought France would retain the World Cup. I'll give myself a pass on this one, I think. Fed up of hearing about how Messi is the GOAT.
As an American reader, I can say right off the top that I would like to see more American pundits have the humility to subject themselves to the kind of self-analysis you have done here. It would certainly be beneficial!
I've managed to turn on several British friends to your Substack forwarding it on to them, and since they seem to be Knowledgeable People and like what you are putting out, there's obviously value here, and I feel informed about a country I not only like but do business in (my publisher being British).
So keep on keeping on, as they say.
Thoughtful piece. I think my biggest mistake was a confidence that Johnson would continue on and fight and lose the next election- I thought that largely because I think leaders survive more than people think- eg. John Major 1990-7 or even Gordon Brown 2007-10 and May 2017-19. I expected a zombie Johnson government till the next election.
The Johnson/Sunak administration is really interesting. I wonder to what extent its a kind of reverse Edward Heath- come in with lots of ideas about spending money, and then enact vast government spending through the pandemic- then retreat to austerity under threat from inflation (the markets were purely about Truss's dash to deficits) and ending up with massive strikes across the country. I know you have written about this before, but my real worry is whether, if Labour gets in in 2024, they actually have the ability to deal with this or are thinking about the crisis in the right terms. It feels like a Wilson 1974 election where Labour might win in the short term but lose in the long run.
What do you think Labour's prospects for government are? (I know you have written about this but I wonder if that's the next big question coming). Another scenario- that you are giving about 20% in your thinking at the moment is that the Conservatives come back with a very small majority- could such a Conservative government under Sunak last, given the fact that the Tories are struggling to do anything with a majority of 80. One thing I think is interesting to compare is Cameron with a majority of 12 (2015-16) to Johnson/Sunak with one of 80 (2019-22)- I may be wrong but I feel like Cameron was more in charge of the Parliamentary agenda, despite his critics, then Sunak is- am I adopting rose tinted spectacles?
I've really enjoyed the articles from both Freedmans over the last year by the way.
Let me just say, I don't mind you being wrong at times. It is an inevitable part of writing intelligent comments. Your comments are in my opinion always smart and balanced even when I think they are wrong !
I am hoping that British politics will be less tumultuous next year enabling all commentators including yourself to focus on policy. Sunak has faults but compared to Johnson, who did not care about the rule of law, or Truss, whose arrogance meant excluding from the room anyone who might disagree with her, he brings a degree of rationality and stability. I have 'forgiven' Starmer for turning a blind eye at the time to Corbyn's antisemitism, so I will have to 'forgive' Sunak for supporting Brexit.
Newspapers in the UK often tend to focus on a purely British perspective except as in Ukraine or China where the problem is obviously international. Few have adequately covered the news from France which is experiencing GP and transport strikes. Problems of escalating inflation, the implications for the health service of ever improving technology and medical care, voluntary euthanasia, the future of education given a changing workplace, the treatment of addicts, the changing nature of policing — to mention just a few— are all common problems internationally. From the perspective of the Daily Mail (I suppose it counts as a newspaper) ignoring any international dimension enables them to ignore the reality that many problems and their solutions are pan European. From the perspective of the Guardian, ignoring that the problem is international enables you to blame any problem entirely on the Conservative government. I would love to see a set of Sam Freedman policy suggestions looking to draw on the experiences of other countries.
Thank you for your excellent articles over the past year.
Your substack had already paid for itself since I won £100 betting on Truss to be gone before Christmas 😁 Largely thanks is to your analysis which won me over
I suppose question is what does success look like? A 100% success rate seems too high a target given the uncertainty involved but how often, and by how much, can you go wrong?
You said apart from Nevada you got the midterms right. However it wasn't 50-50