Once again a very well structured set of comments that put the Ukraine war and the US messing about in it on a rather more understandable footing. I found especially the way the European role was described of great value. Nevertheless, I still wonder what ‘Europe’ as an entity, which it by no means is, is doing in terms of human endeavour and military hard and software, to timely create sufficient power to withstand Russian military aggression in the case that the Ukrainian effort to resist collapses. Obviously, I am well aware that ‘Europe’, for a number of well understandable reasons, is not going to be open about that. But, Lawrence, I’m really, sincerely grateful for your efforts to at least understand what can be made of what is known. However much it is a grating, painful issue. Not only for Europeans, incidentally!
Thank you very much Lawrence, as someone who doesn't know much (anything!) about strategy/war, I have found your pieces this year very helpful in understanding events on the ground and the wider political picture.
I’ve valued your end of year assessment hugely over the years. Thanks once again for this, and to Sam for his.
I just wanted to speculate about the Alaska and Budapest summit truncations/ cancellations; that they might also have occurred because Trump’s health conditions didn’t allow him to endure the duration of meetings needed without exposure to the world of some serious conditions that are currently concealed from the public.
Didn’t think of that. It is a point, however, watching Trump -too slowly- sink away in the sort of torpor that he blamed Joe Biden of. If it gets an equally vain but younger fool like Vance in the White House is at the East side of the Atlantic might be in greater peril than we think even now.
I don’t think Trump’s health is relevant to Alaska and the cancellation of Budapest but I do think it will become an increasingly important issue in 2026.
Thanks Lawrence. Much needed longer term perspective to compete with the daily diet of fear and anxiety.
I was thinking about what you said about the conflicts you felt you didn’t give enough time to. Maybe once a month you could focus on one and share a brief history and current status.
Then if there’s a new development you can refer us back to your latest report to keep us informed.
Yes I need to work out some approach. Proper research on lots of conflicts does take time and there has been a lot happening with Ukraine to keep me busy.
I have considerable sympathy. I follow geopolitical events and trends. However, just reading my filtered inputs from my selected sources on Ukraine takes up a lot of time; everyday. X, War on the Rocks, pods from Galeotti and Kofman, FT and you to name some. Even over Xmas l was ‘forced’ to at least be aware of some significant events. Early on I decided to largely abandon certain areas and rely on overview reporting and just focus on Ukraine. This is a conflict which directly affects my European world, is hugely significant and impactful and one has to prioritise. However, l am grateful for your work on Gaza and relied on that and the superb reporting from the two go to BBC veterans Dycett and Bowen, that saved time!
However the ‘Daddy’ issue that dwarfs all of these in terms of potential is of course Taiwan. China watching is a massive and expert area of interpretation of an oblique regime and the events/development’s within it. I just hope that this never develops into war but see it sliding towards it with dread.
Your writing this year, considering the two narrative extremes around the Russo-Ukrainian war, has been a real pleasure to calm some of the more hysterical narratives, especially around the recent negotiations.
I do hope there will be an opportunity for you to write more about Sudan next year.
One thing is certain and that is that the meat grinder must stop. Russia is losing over a thousand troops a day, either killed or injured. That is costing them, the Russian people, nearly $30 Million a day, apart from all the damage inflicted on oil processing facilities and supply depots. In the end both will be impoverished, as we and Germany were in 1919. If Putin will accept nothing less than the complete Donetsk oblast then Trump must threaten further sanctions to the extent that Russia must stop fighting.
Once again a very well structured set of comments that put the Ukraine war and the US messing about in it on a rather more understandable footing. I found especially the way the European role was described of great value. Nevertheless, I still wonder what ‘Europe’ as an entity, which it by no means is, is doing in terms of human endeavour and military hard and software, to timely create sufficient power to withstand Russian military aggression in the case that the Ukrainian effort to resist collapses. Obviously, I am well aware that ‘Europe’, for a number of well understandable reasons, is not going to be open about that. But, Lawrence, I’m really, sincerely grateful for your efforts to at least understand what can be made of what is known. However much it is a grating, painful issue. Not only for Europeans, incidentally!
Thank you very much Lawrence, as someone who doesn't know much (anything!) about strategy/war, I have found your pieces this year very helpful in understanding events on the ground and the wider political picture.
I’ve valued your end of year assessment hugely over the years. Thanks once again for this, and to Sam for his.
I just wanted to speculate about the Alaska and Budapest summit truncations/ cancellations; that they might also have occurred because Trump’s health conditions didn’t allow him to endure the duration of meetings needed without exposure to the world of some serious conditions that are currently concealed from the public.
Didn’t think of that. It is a point, however, watching Trump -too slowly- sink away in the sort of torpor that he blamed Joe Biden of. If it gets an equally vain but younger fool like Vance in the White House is at the East side of the Atlantic might be in greater peril than we think even now.
Totally agree!
I don’t think Trump’s health is relevant to Alaska and the cancellation of Budapest but I do think it will become an increasingly important issue in 2026.
Thank you for your thoughtful summary.
Thanks Lawrence. Much needed longer term perspective to compete with the daily diet of fear and anxiety.
I was thinking about what you said about the conflicts you felt you didn’t give enough time to. Maybe once a month you could focus on one and share a brief history and current status.
Then if there’s a new development you can refer us back to your latest report to keep us informed.
Thanks again. All the best for 2026
Yes I need to work out some approach. Proper research on lots of conflicts does take time and there has been a lot happening with Ukraine to keep me busy.
I have considerable sympathy. I follow geopolitical events and trends. However, just reading my filtered inputs from my selected sources on Ukraine takes up a lot of time; everyday. X, War on the Rocks, pods from Galeotti and Kofman, FT and you to name some. Even over Xmas l was ‘forced’ to at least be aware of some significant events. Early on I decided to largely abandon certain areas and rely on overview reporting and just focus on Ukraine. This is a conflict which directly affects my European world, is hugely significant and impactful and one has to prioritise. However, l am grateful for your work on Gaza and relied on that and the superb reporting from the two go to BBC veterans Dycett and Bowen, that saved time!
However the ‘Daddy’ issue that dwarfs all of these in terms of potential is of course Taiwan. China watching is a massive and expert area of interpretation of an oblique regime and the events/development’s within it. I just hope that this never develops into war but see it sliding towards it with dread.
I’m always impressed by the thoroughness of your posts. You are always excellent at finding a way!
One wild card is the outcome of the 2026 US congressional elections.
Wise words, thank you. No typos!
Ha. Is that a first?
Your writing this year, considering the two narrative extremes around the Russo-Ukrainian war, has been a real pleasure to calm some of the more hysterical narratives, especially around the recent negotiations.
I do hope there will be an opportunity for you to write more about Sudan next year.
One thing is certain and that is that the meat grinder must stop. Russia is losing over a thousand troops a day, either killed or injured. That is costing them, the Russian people, nearly $30 Million a day, apart from all the damage inflicted on oil processing facilities and supply depots. In the end both will be impoverished, as we and Germany were in 1919. If Putin will accept nothing less than the complete Donetsk oblast then Trump must threaten further sanctions to the extent that Russia must stop fighting.
Some of the links in this article don’t seem to work, e.g. the one titled ‘India and Pakistan’. It says the page is private. Or is that just me?