Every year, in my last piece before Christmas, I do an audit of my posts to see what I got right and wrong, with some lessons to take into next year’s writing (here are the ones for 2022 and 2023).
Thanks Sam and well done for getting so many things right.
I’ve mentioned before that the evidence suggests we’re in both a climate crisis and a loss of nature crisis. Without having to be an expert on the science, I’d like to see both you and Lawrence tackle the systemic risks to geopolitics, security, trade, pensions, food systems, inflation, financial markets etc. that the impacts of these crises imply. Otherwise I think there is a risk of missing that big picture element. Climate change is driving crop loss but also migration, but also water security risk, and inflation.
I'm hoping your analysis in 2025 will serve as a corrective to some of the instant narratives that keep popping up in elite discourse - currently "Farage will be the next PM".
It might be good to look at politics in European countries beyond France and Germany, if you can. I was pulled up on this the other night by a friend from a smaller EU country - in the UK we tend to extrapolate trends across the EU from looking at events in France and Germany, though all the member states have their own domestic dynamics which may not easily fit into a trend.
FWIW I think British political commentary in general has a blind spot for the climate crisis, for various reasons. Pundits know it's bad, and will probably get worse, but I'm not seeing much consideration of what that means for public policy, the economy, social attitudes, etc.
Thanks to you and your Dad for the substack. I have never been particularly interested in politics before (other than to vote) and your commentary and analysis has been so clear and thoughtful, I'm now a convert. Likewise your Dad's (sorry to the Professor to be known as Sam's Dad!) pieces on war strategy. Something else I have never been interested in but now read avidly. Best wishes to you all for Christmas 2024 and the New Year. And sincere thanks for making these topics so accessible to someone like me.
HB. No need to apologise to Professor Freedman for being known as Sam's dad. For those of us of a certain vintage and background, Sam is known as Lawrie's son.
I think European politics would be very interesting for a comparison. For example with the German elections coming up, how can Starmer avoid being in Olaf Scholz’s position in a few years time? What are some examples of successful centre left governments he could imitate? Thanks for all you have written.
Thanks for your careful analysis Sam, signing up to your Substack was one of my positive achievements in 2024, as I have always found you honest and engaging and will look forward to your and your father’s comments on what may well be a tumultuous 2025. Wishing you and yours a merry Christmas and a happy New Year.
Much more on Europe please - particularly from the new frontline states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. They face the Russian threat most directly and have to grapple with it day to day.
First, for Sam, thank you for this year’s posts - all of them, but particularly the mammoth local election and parliamentary seat-by-seat coverage. I am concerned to read that you feel it almost killed you (though I am not surprised) but I feel sure your comment that this granular analysis is the way forward is correct. Your colleagues in this endeavour were well chosen. Is team work a more sustainable solution?
And then, on Labour in government. Impossible to disagree with you, Sam, they are such a disappointment: politically inept and bereft of a collective vision.
Thanks Sam for the analysis this year - and the audit seems very fair.
In terms of positivity for 2025, perhaps it's worth looking at what Ed Miliband and his team has achieved at DESNZ in 6 months. While most of the hard decisions on energy policy will come in 2025 and beyond, Miliband seems to have used his knowledge of government to make changes quickly and establish momentum towards a clear and ambitious plan.
I would appreciate additional thinking about the move of politics to the right. Are voters ignoring history and ignoring the issues raised by people like Trump and Farage. The other issue of course, is what can we do about it. Boris Johnson and Liz Truss reduced the budget of the Environmental Department by £70 million and were gone before the scandal of pollution and illegal discharges were an everyday occurrence. You mention the unaffordable reductions in NI introduced by Jeremy Hunt but the effects were a hole in the budget which Labour had to heap on employers because to reimpose them on employees would risk a backlash at the polls. This happened in 1992 when Labour proposed removing the upper salary limits on NI. Labour lost the election by 10,000 votes.
Very interesting! I'll just be very parochial and gloat a bit to say that your prediction for Chichester - 'Lean Lib Dem' but "It will be close either way" - turned out to be not quite right. We got one of the biggest swings in the country and ended up with almost double the Tory vote (49.2% to 25.7%).
I did say in my comment on your article that I also thought it would be close though. We knew we could win, but there were a number of things we were relying on happening, and a number of variables we were relying on not changing between then and election day. As it turned out, basically everything went right for us. (Which is a testament to all the hard work rather than saying we were lucky... although there clearly were some factors outside of our control.)
Well done, Sam! Merry Christmas to all and I will be looking forward to hearing your views on european political, economic and social chaos as well as the ongoing woes of your local mediocrities. With President Musk in charge, elections in Germany, shortage of men to kill on both sides in Russia/Ukraine....and probable constitution and institutional crisis in France. Diabolical fun and games will be had by all no doubt....but at what price and whither and whence the "greater good" of the people.
I like that you do this audit and I think the lessons you draw from it are mostly good. If I were you I would not focus more on individual seats and councils though. There’s a great line from (I think) Robert Kennedy who said that you can either focus on the problems of Worcester, Massachusetts or the problems of Algeria but not both.
Enjoyed the post Sam - it's honest and helpful to have a self-analysis from time to time. I speak as a journalist who used to do yearly reviews and knew how some things can make you look a seer and some things...not. If you want someone to act as your sounding board in the North East, I'm happy to put myself at your service on any number of issues. Best email to contact me on is gsamedia4u@gmail.com. In the meantime, happy to be a subscriber, enjoy your work and that of your dad, (he's pretty amazing by the way), and I'd like to wish you and all associated with the substack a cracking Christmas and a prolific 2025. :-)
More of the same please. It's amazing how the media still have on people who haven't a clue what they're talking about and make the same mistakes time after time. The bilge spouted by much of the media about what last year's local elections meant being a prime example. It's why I signed up.
1) Get more guest posts from outside the Westminster group think? I read the awful opinions of John Kingman with increasing horror - is this really what Westminster thinks? It is…..
2) Focus on the coming crisis - flat / zero economic growth (thanks Rachel!), desire for ever higher public spending into unreformed and frankly broken public services, no money and little ability to push the borrowing further as bond market patience has been tested (how come we are not talking about the Rachel Reeves ‘moron premium’, and the big one - no money and no growth and Trump rightly wants us to spend far more (maybe 5% of GDP) on defence and to rearm and frankly he’s right. Is labour ready for this…frankly they don’t look ready to run a bath.
Thanks Sam and well done for getting so many things right.
I’ve mentioned before that the evidence suggests we’re in both a climate crisis and a loss of nature crisis. Without having to be an expert on the science, I’d like to see both you and Lawrence tackle the systemic risks to geopolitics, security, trade, pensions, food systems, inflation, financial markets etc. that the impacts of these crises imply. Otherwise I think there is a risk of missing that big picture element. Climate change is driving crop loss but also migration, but also water security risk, and inflation.
See for example https://news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-environment-science-and-economy/actuaries-call-for-policymakers-to-consider-risk-of-climate-ruin/
The other big systemic issue is AI- good to see some thinking on that- I”ve been struck recently by Azeem Azar’s work…
Best wishes for the season!
Plus one to this!
I'm hoping your analysis in 2025 will serve as a corrective to some of the instant narratives that keep popping up in elite discourse - currently "Farage will be the next PM".
It might be good to look at politics in European countries beyond France and Germany, if you can. I was pulled up on this the other night by a friend from a smaller EU country - in the UK we tend to extrapolate trends across the EU from looking at events in France and Germany, though all the member states have their own domestic dynamics which may not easily fit into a trend.
FWIW I think British political commentary in general has a blind spot for the climate crisis, for various reasons. Pundits know it's bad, and will probably get worse, but I'm not seeing much consideration of what that means for public policy, the economy, social attitudes, etc.
No comments on the Olympics Sam?
Thanks to you and your Dad for the substack. I have never been particularly interested in politics before (other than to vote) and your commentary and analysis has been so clear and thoughtful, I'm now a convert. Likewise your Dad's (sorry to the Professor to be known as Sam's Dad!) pieces on war strategy. Something else I have never been interested in but now read avidly. Best wishes to you all for Christmas 2024 and the New Year. And sincere thanks for making these topics so accessible to someone like me.
HB. No need to apologise to Professor Freedman for being known as Sam's dad. For those of us of a certain vintage and background, Sam is known as Lawrie's son.
Good to know!
I think European politics would be very interesting for a comparison. For example with the German elections coming up, how can Starmer avoid being in Olaf Scholz’s position in a few years time? What are some examples of successful centre left governments he could imitate? Thanks for all you have written.
Thanks for your careful analysis Sam, signing up to your Substack was one of my positive achievements in 2024, as I have always found you honest and engaging and will look forward to your and your father’s comments on what may well be a tumultuous 2025. Wishing you and yours a merry Christmas and a happy New Year.
Very Kind!
Much more on Europe please - particularly from the new frontline states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. They face the Russian threat most directly and have to grapple with it day to day.
First, for Sam, thank you for this year’s posts - all of them, but particularly the mammoth local election and parliamentary seat-by-seat coverage. I am concerned to read that you feel it almost killed you (though I am not surprised) but I feel sure your comment that this granular analysis is the way forward is correct. Your colleagues in this endeavour were well chosen. Is team work a more sustainable solution?
And then, on Labour in government. Impossible to disagree with you, Sam, they are such a disappointment: politically inept and bereft of a collective vision.
KBO.
Ditto on the seat by seat. Astonishing work and I spent election night flicking to your work to understand the context as results came in.
Thanks Sam for the analysis this year - and the audit seems very fair.
In terms of positivity for 2025, perhaps it's worth looking at what Ed Miliband and his team has achieved at DESNZ in 6 months. While most of the hard decisions on energy policy will come in 2025 and beyond, Miliband seems to have used his knowledge of government to make changes quickly and establish momentum towards a clear and ambitious plan.
I would appreciate additional thinking about the move of politics to the right. Are voters ignoring history and ignoring the issues raised by people like Trump and Farage. The other issue of course, is what can we do about it. Boris Johnson and Liz Truss reduced the budget of the Environmental Department by £70 million and were gone before the scandal of pollution and illegal discharges were an everyday occurrence. You mention the unaffordable reductions in NI introduced by Jeremy Hunt but the effects were a hole in the budget which Labour had to heap on employers because to reimpose them on employees would risk a backlash at the polls. This happened in 1992 when Labour proposed removing the upper salary limits on NI. Labour lost the election by 10,000 votes.
Very interesting! I'll just be very parochial and gloat a bit to say that your prediction for Chichester - 'Lean Lib Dem' but "It will be close either way" - turned out to be not quite right. We got one of the biggest swings in the country and ended up with almost double the Tory vote (49.2% to 25.7%).
I did say in my comment on your article that I also thought it would be close though. We knew we could win, but there were a number of things we were relying on happening, and a number of variables we were relying on not changing between then and election day. As it turned out, basically everything went right for us. (Which is a testament to all the hard work rather than saying we were lucky... although there clearly were some factors outside of our control.)
“Keep the focus on the big picture, and stay away from day-to-day political commentary unless there’s a very good reason to write about it.”
Yes please, Sam.
Policy over politics, as I believe you said recently 👍🏻
Well done, Sam! Merry Christmas to all and I will be looking forward to hearing your views on european political, economic and social chaos as well as the ongoing woes of your local mediocrities. With President Musk in charge, elections in Germany, shortage of men to kill on both sides in Russia/Ukraine....and probable constitution and institutional crisis in France. Diabolical fun and games will be had by all no doubt....but at what price and whither and whence the "greater good" of the people.
I like that you do this audit and I think the lessons you draw from it are mostly good. If I were you I would not focus more on individual seats and councils though. There’s a great line from (I think) Robert Kennedy who said that you can either focus on the problems of Worcester, Massachusetts or the problems of Algeria but not both.
Enjoyed the post Sam - it's honest and helpful to have a self-analysis from time to time. I speak as a journalist who used to do yearly reviews and knew how some things can make you look a seer and some things...not. If you want someone to act as your sounding board in the North East, I'm happy to put myself at your service on any number of issues. Best email to contact me on is gsamedia4u@gmail.com. In the meantime, happy to be a subscriber, enjoy your work and that of your dad, (he's pretty amazing by the way), and I'd like to wish you and all associated with the substack a cracking Christmas and a prolific 2025. :-)
Thanks!
More of the same please. It's amazing how the media still have on people who haven't a clue what they're talking about and make the same mistakes time after time. The bilge spouted by much of the media about what last year's local elections meant being a prime example. It's why I signed up.
Hi Sam, I would kindly suggest two things
1) Get more guest posts from outside the Westminster group think? I read the awful opinions of John Kingman with increasing horror - is this really what Westminster thinks? It is…..
2) Focus on the coming crisis - flat / zero economic growth (thanks Rachel!), desire for ever higher public spending into unreformed and frankly broken public services, no money and little ability to push the borrowing further as bond market patience has been tested (how come we are not talking about the Rachel Reeves ‘moron premium’, and the big one - no money and no growth and Trump rightly wants us to spend far more (maybe 5% of GDP) on defence and to rearm and frankly he’s right. Is labour ready for this…frankly they don’t look ready to run a bath.