Good effort Sam. Looking forward to the positive posts next year! Also your seat predictions for the GE. I'm gonna have a big bet on the back of your opinion, so no pressure!
Well done for self-reflecting honestly. Maybe a way to look at more optimistic topics could be to examine examples abroad of changes implemented successfully, i.e. who is doing well at solving issues similar to some of the UK's? Even if not a matter of those solutions being directly applicable it would be interesting. E.g. Estonia's use of technology.
The problem is Politics is increasingly all about Power, Personality and Partisanship and there is too much Politics because of the media. What we need as a country is politics in its most important sense of how anything practically useful, whether a decision on direction or a policy or implementation or action, is ever achieved i.e. by bringing enough other people of all kinds and Political persuasions (or none) on side and energising them to co-operate resource the particular project and act. Too many words not enough work. The word is "Co-operation". This applies right across the Political piste. Starmer would be doing much better if he only remembered and revived the idea of the Co-operative Movement. Labour and Co-operative. Caroline Grieve
Great work, Sam: the blog has been a great read all year, and reflecting on wrong/right is absolutely the way forward. (Re "reacting too fast", you could always write a post that was the equivalent of jotting down a few notes - "Sunak has said X, I think it's a good/bad idea because Y and Z, but we'll come back to it" - almost as a way of keeping yourself honest.)
Re writing about failure, it is always easier to tell someone they're about to step off a cliff than to approve how well someone runs along a flat road. I guess you could look for "things that are successes" and write about those. But they might be less popular; as Gore Vidal said, "It's not enough to succeed; others must be seen to fail." Even doom loops throw off a little schadenfreude for us to sip.
I do think it is really important to look at international comparisons and possible lessons from comparable countries, and it really bugs me when the media fail to do this, or fail to do it in an intelligent way. Obvious examples are the persistent effects of Covid on the health service, drugs policy, education policy, and adult social care - all areas where other Western countries face many of the same challenges that we do.
I think this is a really interesting exercise. One thing I think you should have highlighted in the positive column and perhaps its a reward for having thought through a prediction is that you were one of the few- there were a couple of others- to highlight that the local election results were bad for the conservatives and good for Labour- I saw a lot of arguments that Labour weren't winning enough in key places but I think your analysis was born out by the by-elections. I don't really say this just to boost your ego- but one of the interesting facets of this year is that aside from say Will Jennings and you and a few others, its been remarkable how resistant political commentators have been to the idea that the Conservatives are in deep trouble and have been actually since partygate in the polls. I wonder if there is a post at some point on how perceptions of the current Parliament are effecting especially Tory politics: lots of the Johnsonian or broader rightwing narrative about Sunak seems to be born out of a perception that things only started going wrong for them when Johnson left or even that Sunak could have easily repaired things after Truss if only he had done x, y or z rather than Sunak facing a form of electoral zugzwang.
Yup. I read you for UK politics but am aware we are in the grip of much larger 'feedback' in the complex global machine. The cogs work differently for example within the EU - witness Eire and civil unrest just now.
I am reading a very useful entirely accessible book, 'Escape from Model Land', by data scientist / mathematician Erica Thompson. You are an excellent case study in my view of the role of 'expert judgement' which is an essential component of 'model' construction and interpretation. One tip is that 'past performance is no guarantee of future results' - you seem to have that to heart, but one or two commentators might take note. There is nice stuff also on models as metaphors and appropriate or inapproriate comparisons.
Hi Sam - thanks for this post, I think this type of reflection is really helpful. You note that you often look at the risks and struggle to see how things might improve (I’m the same!). I wonder then what you think about this article from the Economist? It says that a lot of medium term metrics should improve without a future (labour) Government having to do a huge amount, and that they will benefit from low expectations. https://www.economist.com/britain/2023/12/14/cheer-up-sir-keir-it-might-never-happen
Thanks Sam. I very much enjoying reading your work
One area I notice you don’t write much about is sustainability- nature, climate change and resources. I’d argue these areas are both huge economic opportunities for households, regions and the U.K. as a whole- but also huge threats. We aim to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees as a hard biophysical limit not a political ambition. We’re already at 1.2 degree of rise and seeing enormous damage around the world with economic costs in the hundreds of billions of dollars a year and accelerating. Both Chatham House and Institute of Actuaries think we’re hugely underestimating economic risk from climate change, and associated triggering of down turns, stock market crashes etc. Its been estimated that recent climate events added £600 a year (!) to U.K. food bills. More extreme weather, water shortages and floods etc increase social instability, possibility of conflict etc
We have been living with average temperatures that are very stable for the last 10,000 years- the Holocene- but have now created a human geological era- the Anthropocene. We have the highest carbon emissions, highest CO2 atmospheric concentrations and highest temperatures in human history since the dawn of the Neolithic period and the invention of farming. We’re creating new climate conditions our cities, farming, industry, cultures, economies were not designed around.
Climate is just one of a series of poly crises though, with multiple interlocking risks. Johan Rockstrom explains risks of tipping points in global earth systems well- see online for ‘planetary boundaries’ talks. I very much doubt many understand the magnitude of the risks we are creating. Once a tipping point is exceeded they can’t be reversed and commit society for thousands of generations - the very definition of unfairness and recklessness. For example, triggering the collapse of the Western Antarctic ice sheet commits the world to 10 metres of sea level rise.
Seems to me, when considering economic opportunities and socio-economic and technical risks, that this whole area remains poorly recognised in standard policy circles, economic planning, banking and financial system supervision, investment etc.
- Equities markets (especially US) are booming, fortunes are being made right now. They have priced in lower interest rates as top of rate curve flagged and large carry trade now underway. US policymakers now realising most of the IRA money wasted but too late now
- US is rapidly realising Biden will likely lose the '24 election, full on meltdown will happen in Late Jan/Feb, my liberal friends in NY deeply depressed. Courts playing into Trump's anti-establishment campaign. If markets price in Trump election - further boom...
- European economies in recession, Germany a toxic mess; huge economic divergence between Europe/EU and the US. UK slightly better than Europe/EU due to services expansion albeit relative. UK still far from the US pace. Expectations that Labour tax rises will further depress UK vs US (contractionary vs expansionary economics). Early signs of some capital flight....
- Impact of possible Trump re-election in Nov to play out, mostly bad
The bad news is always in your face that’s the nature of the media. The good news comes much later(John Major and Tony Blair’s govt, peace in NI, recovering economy, Blair promoting education, Livingstone congestion charge in a parochial level, Brown and Darling post 2007/8)
Good effort Sam. Looking forward to the positive posts next year! Also your seat predictions for the GE. I'm gonna have a big bet on the back of your opinion, so no pressure!
Well done for self-reflecting honestly. Maybe a way to look at more optimistic topics could be to examine examples abroad of changes implemented successfully, i.e. who is doing well at solving issues similar to some of the UK's? Even if not a matter of those solutions being directly applicable it would be interesting. E.g. Estonia's use of technology.
The problem is Politics is increasingly all about Power, Personality and Partisanship and there is too much Politics because of the media. What we need as a country is politics in its most important sense of how anything practically useful, whether a decision on direction or a policy or implementation or action, is ever achieved i.e. by bringing enough other people of all kinds and Political persuasions (or none) on side and energising them to co-operate resource the particular project and act. Too many words not enough work. The word is "Co-operation". This applies right across the Political piste. Starmer would be doing much better if he only remembered and revived the idea of the Co-operative Movement. Labour and Co-operative. Caroline Grieve
Compulsory (and compulsive!) reading Sam!
Would love to know -
(1) Which broader trends are you most excited to explore in 2024?
I would love to learn more about what can we learn from other countries’ approaches to public services, wherever they are succeeding.
(2) What did you make of this year’s Reith lectures?!
Great work, Sam: the blog has been a great read all year, and reflecting on wrong/right is absolutely the way forward. (Re "reacting too fast", you could always write a post that was the equivalent of jotting down a few notes - "Sunak has said X, I think it's a good/bad idea because Y and Z, but we'll come back to it" - almost as a way of keeping yourself honest.)
Re writing about failure, it is always easier to tell someone they're about to step off a cliff than to approve how well someone runs along a flat road. I guess you could look for "things that are successes" and write about those. But they might be less popular; as Gore Vidal said, "It's not enough to succeed; others must be seen to fail." Even doom loops throw off a little schadenfreude for us to sip.
I do think it is really important to look at international comparisons and possible lessons from comparable countries, and it really bugs me when the media fail to do this, or fail to do it in an intelligent way. Obvious examples are the persistent effects of Covid on the health service, drugs policy, education policy, and adult social care - all areas where other Western countries face many of the same challenges that we do.
I think this is a really interesting exercise. One thing I think you should have highlighted in the positive column and perhaps its a reward for having thought through a prediction is that you were one of the few- there were a couple of others- to highlight that the local election results were bad for the conservatives and good for Labour- I saw a lot of arguments that Labour weren't winning enough in key places but I think your analysis was born out by the by-elections. I don't really say this just to boost your ego- but one of the interesting facets of this year is that aside from say Will Jennings and you and a few others, its been remarkable how resistant political commentators have been to the idea that the Conservatives are in deep trouble and have been actually since partygate in the polls. I wonder if there is a post at some point on how perceptions of the current Parliament are effecting especially Tory politics: lots of the Johnsonian or broader rightwing narrative about Sunak seems to be born out of a perception that things only started going wrong for them when Johnson left or even that Sunak could have easily repaired things after Truss if only he had done x, y or z rather than Sunak facing a form of electoral zugzwang.
Yup. I read you for UK politics but am aware we are in the grip of much larger 'feedback' in the complex global machine. The cogs work differently for example within the EU - witness Eire and civil unrest just now.
I am reading a very useful entirely accessible book, 'Escape from Model Land', by data scientist / mathematician Erica Thompson. You are an excellent case study in my view of the role of 'expert judgement' which is an essential component of 'model' construction and interpretation. One tip is that 'past performance is no guarantee of future results' - you seem to have that to heart, but one or two commentators might take note. There is nice stuff also on models as metaphors and appropriate or inapproriate comparisons.
Hi Sam - thanks for this post, I think this type of reflection is really helpful. You note that you often look at the risks and struggle to see how things might improve (I’m the same!). I wonder then what you think about this article from the Economist? It says that a lot of medium term metrics should improve without a future (labour) Government having to do a huge amount, and that they will benefit from low expectations. https://www.economist.com/britain/2023/12/14/cheer-up-sir-keir-it-might-never-happen
Thanks Sam. I very much enjoying reading your work
One area I notice you don’t write much about is sustainability- nature, climate change and resources. I’d argue these areas are both huge economic opportunities for households, regions and the U.K. as a whole- but also huge threats. We aim to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees as a hard biophysical limit not a political ambition. We’re already at 1.2 degree of rise and seeing enormous damage around the world with economic costs in the hundreds of billions of dollars a year and accelerating. Both Chatham House and Institute of Actuaries think we’re hugely underestimating economic risk from climate change, and associated triggering of down turns, stock market crashes etc. Its been estimated that recent climate events added £600 a year (!) to U.K. food bills. More extreme weather, water shortages and floods etc increase social instability, possibility of conflict etc
We have been living with average temperatures that are very stable for the last 10,000 years- the Holocene- but have now created a human geological era- the Anthropocene. We have the highest carbon emissions, highest CO2 atmospheric concentrations and highest temperatures in human history since the dawn of the Neolithic period and the invention of farming. We’re creating new climate conditions our cities, farming, industry, cultures, economies were not designed around.
Climate is just one of a series of poly crises though, with multiple interlocking risks. Johan Rockstrom explains risks of tipping points in global earth systems well- see online for ‘planetary boundaries’ talks. I very much doubt many understand the magnitude of the risks we are creating. Once a tipping point is exceeded they can’t be reversed and commit society for thousands of generations - the very definition of unfairness and recklessness. For example, triggering the collapse of the Western Antarctic ice sheet commits the world to 10 metres of sea level rise.
Seems to me, when considering economic opportunities and socio-economic and technical risks, that this whole area remains poorly recognised in standard policy circles, economic planning, banking and financial system supervision, investment etc.
Best wishes for Christmas and 2024
Macro trends that will impact the UK
- Equities markets (especially US) are booming, fortunes are being made right now. They have priced in lower interest rates as top of rate curve flagged and large carry trade now underway. US policymakers now realising most of the IRA money wasted but too late now
- US is rapidly realising Biden will likely lose the '24 election, full on meltdown will happen in Late Jan/Feb, my liberal friends in NY deeply depressed. Courts playing into Trump's anti-establishment campaign. If markets price in Trump election - further boom...
- European economies in recession, Germany a toxic mess; huge economic divergence between Europe/EU and the US. UK slightly better than Europe/EU due to services expansion albeit relative. UK still far from the US pace. Expectations that Labour tax rises will further depress UK vs US (contractionary vs expansionary economics). Early signs of some capital flight....
- Impact of possible Trump re-election in Nov to play out, mostly bad
Thank you Sam! - I love all your posts and enjoyed this self-reflection too. Chris (Deputy Director, Green Alliance, the environmental think-tank!)
The bad news is always in your face that’s the nature of the media. The good news comes much later(John Major and Tony Blair’s govt, peace in NI, recovering economy, Blair promoting education, Livingstone congestion charge in a parochial level, Brown and Darling post 2007/8)