Great post by Sam. An obvious candidate for the first category is the failure to do R&R on Parliament itself. Long talked about, everyone close to It knows how the fabric of the building is and how dangerous It is. It feels like the political class has resigned itself to it burning down some time in the next 10 years. Many of people who work there are fully expecting that to happen!
One obvious weakness is the ease with which the government can prevent full debate with divisions in the Commons Chamber which reduces the impact of Select Committee Reports and the ability of MPs to make a noise about a scandal. There is a solution (first proposed over 4 centuries ago by the Jesuit Robert Parsons) namely for the agenda of the Commons to be determined by a Committee chaired by the Speaker or a Deputy Speaker. (The government - if it had a majority - would still be able to amend a Cttee recommendation so could always ensure its business had enough time). With the Commons now frequently running out of business and adjourning early, there is no reason why as a first step the Backbench Business Committee should not be given more debates.
While this would not be a 100 per cent cure, I find it hard to believe that collapsing hospitals would not lead to debates (and votes) and that ministers would be determined to act - as Iain Macleod responded to a civil servant "I have no desire to be tarred and feathered in Palace Yard."
Having watched the rigour with which select committees investigate policy and outcomes it’s pretty scandalous that they can be largely ignored by the government of the day. There should be a regular parliamentary reviewing system on policy areas, informed by select committee reports. In short they should have more power, and as cross party bodies, more respect.
You should have mentioned Windrush in this piece, perhaps including the fact that most of the provisions that led to the scandal are still in place and are still affecting people (now including EU citizens unable to establish their status to the satisfaction of bureaucrats, landlords, employers).
Fair - though I've never sure that was unintended or not given it was literally the purpose of hostile environment. Just turned out to be a bit too embarrassing. Briefly.
What would be interesting would be to cast a slightly longer lens back at scandals to, say, 1850, and look at where governments did a good job, and where they didn't. The historical perspective is normally interesting and often illuminating, helping us to avoid some of the mistakes from the past. Much as in a previous life I read every accident enquiry report that I could get my hands on.
In that vein, there’s a trope that in times of yore, scandals led more directly to accountability in the form of prison sentences for people in charge and resignations for ministers, and that the former are now almost fully insulated from consequences, while the latter have turned shamelessness into a political asset. I don’t know whether it’s true or not, but if it is, then I think any remedy needs to restore accountability.
I think another scandal that will eventually blow up is the cost and quality of residential care provided to people with profound autism and learning disabilities. It’s of poor quality - there will be more Winterborne Views - and yet costs hundreds of thousands each year. It’s an utterly broken system to the extent that I’m trying to establish my own home rather than trust my son - who is disabled and requires 24/7 care - to the adult care system
this is a good example, but having studied this, it seems that there’s an inquiry into diastrous abuse and neglect in homes for people with autism and severe disabilities about every five years back to the 1960s, everyone is horrified for a bit, and nothing ever changes.
I think it falls into the same bucket as the sub-postmasters scandal in that it is something that everyone has known about for years but it doesn't ever cut through to real change. Without the ITV series the Post Office could well be bumbling along and dodging scrutiny much as they've done for the last few deades.
The fact is, autism is touching the lives of more and more people. People with learning disabilities are still marginalised but are more visible in society. The ground is more fertile for this scandal to cut through but - as you say - we've been here before so many times
The new grassroots organisation to be funded and promoted by those with the money and the contacts could be called "Outrage". All of this is well worth pushing hard. And you are right about the lost role of local media
'A proper, transparent, and high profile, cross-government risk register' would be a start, but this would need to be supported by an effective infrastructure to enable a proactive evidence-driven approach to the active management of policy related risk. For any large organisation this is part of good governance, but for elected governments it would need to be sufficiently powerful to counteract the apparent perverse incentive to externalise risk to succeeding postholders. It should be non-partisan, independent, and seek to develop a culture of evidence-based policy - short and long term - together with the accountability that goes with that. This seems a bit fanciful in the current political climate - but how else to counter increasing cynicism about government and policy?
There are a few that could be added in terms of the chaos in the water industry. It's known but buried. The same is the case with climate change. The govt is consistently failing to address the issue because this govt doesn't believe in it. Always a key condition for creating a future scandal.
But on the wider infrastructure issue I want to highlight a more substantive point in that the consensus on public infrastructure has been destroyed. It has become a political issue as opposed to an operational one. I have lived in NL for 2.5 years in Eindhoven. Here they have a whole infrastructure of 'spare' schools where the activity of a school being worked on is moved to as they refit an existing one. They have a whole programme of drainage repairs and upgrades just happening not because of crisis but planned, done with speed. So I know next year drains where I live installed in 1950s will be worked on.
Instead UK has become a place where govts won't govern as they want to play politics storing up issues and responding only in time of crisis and so at great cost.
The problem in NL is that it now seems to be heading down UK route with new right wing govt that is burying its head to the issues it has to address because they will play out after the next election.
Your mention of the national risk register made me think about other infrastructure-linked scandals that may pop up: flood defences, drought & fires… and your mention of prisoners made me think of IPP sentences.
Maternity safety feels like the obvious 'next enquiry' as pressure seems to be building and the key trigger you've identified (someone is harmed who is able and willing to campaign) has been reached. But it's further down the track than the issues you mention so a slightly different category I think.
I suspect that a scandal that will get its day in the sun eventually is the prescription of Sodium Valproate, an epilepsy drug which has caused a bunch of birth defects when taken by pregnant mothers. Seems to have been similar efforts by the civil service to prevent it from coming to light...
I’m going to get on my current hobbyhorse and predict a mini-scandal. One that is unlikely to get the full ITV drama treatment but is still worth highlighting:
It’s increasingly noticeable (certainly where I live) that there has been an explosion in the number of massive US-style pickup trucks driving around our towns. This is because accountants have got wise to the exemption that allows company owners to buy a ‘dual cab’ truck and pay a flat rate BIK charge that is a fraction that would normally be incurred on a company car, provided it can take a payload of more than one tonne.
The government is well aware that this loophole is being exploited but reversed a plan to close it earlier this year as it was scared to upset the farming lobby.
My gut feel is that this risks a scandal when the public asks why a supposedly net zero government is giving a massive tax break to huge petrol guzzling trucks that, critically, are exempt from a lot of pedestrian safety standards. Sadly, I expect this question will only occur after either a high visible tragedy or when road deaths start to tick up.
I was going to reflect on any parallels with child sex abuse at various children's homes from the 1960's onwards - which Lambeth only today was allowed to borrow an extra £50m for. The cynic in me would suggest that unlike infected blood for which the government / NHS would be liable, they seemed slightly less concerned when the burden falls on local authorities. But my other thought of relevant cases concern diesel cars and 'smart' motorways. In both instances there was a huge amount of knowledge that they were making bad decisions at the time but the government still ploughed on. And then there is Drax power station saving CO2 by pelletising wood in North America, shipping it across the Atlantic then hauling it by train to the power station. Indeed, I can think of many other case (Eat out to help out amongst many Covid related disasters...)
You didn't mention obvious candidates like the OBR and BoE's forecasting which is less accurate than astrology or using rune stones...on which the government bases it's economic policy decisions.
A BoE that failed to notice inflationary pressures coupled with truly epic levels of public spending which did precisely nothing whatsoever until forced to belatedly raise interest rates to deflate the economy.
Great post by Sam. An obvious candidate for the first category is the failure to do R&R on Parliament itself. Long talked about, everyone close to It knows how the fabric of the building is and how dangerous It is. It feels like the political class has resigned itself to it burning down some time in the next 10 years. Many of people who work there are fully expecting that to happen!
One obvious weakness is the ease with which the government can prevent full debate with divisions in the Commons Chamber which reduces the impact of Select Committee Reports and the ability of MPs to make a noise about a scandal. There is a solution (first proposed over 4 centuries ago by the Jesuit Robert Parsons) namely for the agenda of the Commons to be determined by a Committee chaired by the Speaker or a Deputy Speaker. (The government - if it had a majority - would still be able to amend a Cttee recommendation so could always ensure its business had enough time). With the Commons now frequently running out of business and adjourning early, there is no reason why as a first step the Backbench Business Committee should not be given more debates.
While this would not be a 100 per cent cure, I find it hard to believe that collapsing hospitals would not lead to debates (and votes) and that ministers would be determined to act - as Iain Macleod responded to a civil servant "I have no desire to be tarred and feathered in Palace Yard."
Really agree with this - got a whole bit in the book on parliamentary timetables!
If you are interested in the Parsons proposals, I summarised them in this: https://www.thinkingfaith.org/articles/20100217_1.htm
Having watched the rigour with which select committees investigate policy and outcomes it’s pretty scandalous that they can be largely ignored by the government of the day. There should be a regular parliamentary reviewing system on policy areas, informed by select committee reports. In short they should have more power, and as cross party bodies, more respect.
You should have mentioned Windrush in this piece, perhaps including the fact that most of the provisions that led to the scandal are still in place and are still affecting people (now including EU citizens unable to establish their status to the satisfaction of bureaucrats, landlords, employers).
Fair - though I've never sure that was unintended or not given it was literally the purpose of hostile environment. Just turned out to be a bit too embarrassing. Briefly.
And this is a problem now. We need people there is no question about it but the govt are refusing to deal with it.
What would be interesting would be to cast a slightly longer lens back at scandals to, say, 1850, and look at where governments did a good job, and where they didn't. The historical perspective is normally interesting and often illuminating, helping us to avoid some of the mistakes from the past. Much as in a previous life I read every accident enquiry report that I could get my hands on.
In that vein, there’s a trope that in times of yore, scandals led more directly to accountability in the form of prison sentences for people in charge and resignations for ministers, and that the former are now almost fully insulated from consequences, while the latter have turned shamelessness into a political asset. I don’t know whether it’s true or not, but if it is, then I think any remedy needs to restore accountability.
I think another scandal that will eventually blow up is the cost and quality of residential care provided to people with profound autism and learning disabilities. It’s of poor quality - there will be more Winterborne Views - and yet costs hundreds of thousands each year. It’s an utterly broken system to the extent that I’m trying to establish my own home rather than trust my son - who is disabled and requires 24/7 care - to the adult care system
this is a good example, but having studied this, it seems that there’s an inquiry into diastrous abuse and neglect in homes for people with autism and severe disabilities about every five years back to the 1960s, everyone is horrified for a bit, and nothing ever changes.
Quite.
I think it falls into the same bucket as the sub-postmasters scandal in that it is something that everyone has known about for years but it doesn't ever cut through to real change. Without the ITV series the Post Office could well be bumbling along and dodging scrutiny much as they've done for the last few deades.
The fact is, autism is touching the lives of more and more people. People with learning disabilities are still marginalised but are more visible in society. The ground is more fertile for this scandal to cut through but - as you say - we've been here before so many times
The new grassroots organisation to be funded and promoted by those with the money and the contacts could be called "Outrage". All of this is well worth pushing hard. And you are right about the lost role of local media
Love it! Great name.
Good article! I wonder if climate change might also fall into the category of “known risks the Government did not mitigate sufficiently”
I didn't include it because it affects everyone but yes we will no doubt look back and wonder what we were thinking...
'A proper, transparent, and high profile, cross-government risk register' would be a start, but this would need to be supported by an effective infrastructure to enable a proactive evidence-driven approach to the active management of policy related risk. For any large organisation this is part of good governance, but for elected governments it would need to be sufficiently powerful to counteract the apparent perverse incentive to externalise risk to succeeding postholders. It should be non-partisan, independent, and seek to develop a culture of evidence-based policy - short and long term - together with the accountability that goes with that. This seems a bit fanciful in the current political climate - but how else to counter increasing cynicism about government and policy?
There are a few that could be added in terms of the chaos in the water industry. It's known but buried. The same is the case with climate change. The govt is consistently failing to address the issue because this govt doesn't believe in it. Always a key condition for creating a future scandal.
But on the wider infrastructure issue I want to highlight a more substantive point in that the consensus on public infrastructure has been destroyed. It has become a political issue as opposed to an operational one. I have lived in NL for 2.5 years in Eindhoven. Here they have a whole infrastructure of 'spare' schools where the activity of a school being worked on is moved to as they refit an existing one. They have a whole programme of drainage repairs and upgrades just happening not because of crisis but planned, done with speed. So I know next year drains where I live installed in 1950s will be worked on.
Instead UK has become a place where govts won't govern as they want to play politics storing up issues and responding only in time of crisis and so at great cost.
The problem in NL is that it now seems to be heading down UK route with new right wing govt that is burying its head to the issues it has to address because they will play out after the next election.
Your mention of the national risk register made me think about other infrastructure-linked scandals that may pop up: flood defences, drought & fires… and your mention of prisoners made me think of IPP sentences.
Maternity safety feels like the obvious 'next enquiry' as pressure seems to be building and the key trigger you've identified (someone is harmed who is able and willing to campaign) has been reached. But it's further down the track than the issues you mention so a slightly different category I think.
I suspect that a scandal that will get its day in the sun eventually is the prescription of Sodium Valproate, an epilepsy drug which has caused a bunch of birth defects when taken by pregnant mothers. Seems to have been similar efforts by the civil service to prevent it from coming to light...
Here's one that made my blood run cold:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/18/meet-becky-aged-14-suicidal-alone-and-unwanted-victim-of-a-cruel-uncaring-state
I’m going to get on my current hobbyhorse and predict a mini-scandal. One that is unlikely to get the full ITV drama treatment but is still worth highlighting:
It’s increasingly noticeable (certainly where I live) that there has been an explosion in the number of massive US-style pickup trucks driving around our towns. This is because accountants have got wise to the exemption that allows company owners to buy a ‘dual cab’ truck and pay a flat rate BIK charge that is a fraction that would normally be incurred on a company car, provided it can take a payload of more than one tonne.
The government is well aware that this loophole is being exploited but reversed a plan to close it earlier this year as it was scared to upset the farming lobby.
My gut feel is that this risks a scandal when the public asks why a supposedly net zero government is giving a massive tax break to huge petrol guzzling trucks that, critically, are exempt from a lot of pedestrian safety standards. Sadly, I expect this question will only occur after either a high visible tragedy or when road deaths start to tick up.
I was going to reflect on any parallels with child sex abuse at various children's homes from the 1960's onwards - which Lambeth only today was allowed to borrow an extra £50m for. The cynic in me would suggest that unlike infected blood for which the government / NHS would be liable, they seemed slightly less concerned when the burden falls on local authorities. But my other thought of relevant cases concern diesel cars and 'smart' motorways. In both instances there was a huge amount of knowledge that they were making bad decisions at the time but the government still ploughed on. And then there is Drax power station saving CO2 by pelletising wood in North America, shipping it across the Atlantic then hauling it by train to the power station. Indeed, I can think of many other case (Eat out to help out amongst many Covid related disasters...)
You didn't mention obvious candidates like the OBR and BoE's forecasting which is less accurate than astrology or using rune stones...on which the government bases it's economic policy decisions.
A BoE that failed to notice inflationary pressures coupled with truly epic levels of public spending which did precisely nothing whatsoever until forced to belatedly raise interest rates to deflate the economy.
I could go on.