One issue is that there are two kinds of history - the truth, as best as can be realised, embodied in some of your principles and the myths, of which there can be many totally different versions. Most political leaders and their publics have only the myths and act on those.
First Point. The 9 Rules are brilliant and should be beaten into the Foreign Affairs Department of every state with a military big enough to invade another country.
Second Point. "Can we be confident that the current leadership group in Moscow will abandon its claims on Ukraine or stop it’s instinctive attempts to bully those who refuse to bend to its will?" Of course we can't. I'd say we could bet the house the current leadership group will continue to bully and invade if it has the opportunity to do so and think they could get away with it. Therefore as long as the Ukrainians are prepared to keep fighting we should be giving as many weapons as they want and consider it a cheap price to pay for the good chance of permanently weakening an aggressive and reckless power.
I cannot stress too strongly how I agree with Lawrie in this post, having spent my career on the use of history within government. But I would add Rule 10, based on what my mentor the late W.N. Medlicott used to drill into me: 'Always consider what is going on in the rest of the world.' This applies to both sides of any conflict, as Putin would do well to consider.
This phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprecedented. In 1914, the country that triggered World War I was Austria-Hungary, an empire in broad decline, and yet one determined to use its military to show the world it still mattered and to teach a harsh lesson to Serbia, which it regarded as a minor, vassal state. Sound familiar?
The best China strategy right now is to defeat Russia. Xi Jinping made a risky wager in backing Russia strongly on the eve of the invasion. If Russia comes out of this conflict a weak, marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to Xi, who is personally associated with the alliance with Putin. If, on the other hand, Putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, Xi and China will learn an ominous lesson: that the West cannot uphold its rules-based system against a sustained assault.
Most of the people in top positions in the Biden administration were senior officials in the Obama administration in 2014, when Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine. They were not able to reverse Moscow’s aggression or even make Putin pay much of a price for it. Perhaps at the time, they saw the greatest threat to global order as the Islamic State, or they were focused on the “pivot” to Asia, or they didn’t prioritize Ukraine enough. Now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last.
The West, if there is such a thing, has the overwhelming majority of its citizens primarily concerned with yammering, online shopping, social media, and keeping up with the Joneses. It is no match for determinded autocracies that operate under the convenient umbrella of nuclear weapons and know how to out-horror those who love life.
You mentioned Stepan Bandera. He did collaborated with Nazi but for a short period. He end up in concentration camp. Though You translate Russian propaganda
Western Ukrainians fought with the Nazis then fought against them then fought against the Red Army until 1955, which is why Russia hates them and calls them Nazis
Re: Lawrence Freedman: _Spirits of the Past: The Role of History in the Russo-Ukraine War_.
Imho: Everyone should agree that Stepan Bandera and the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists *never for a moment* wished to see Ukraine governed by Germans. To what extent OUN(B) is to be blamed for its sometime alliance-of-convenience with Germans is a moot point.
As for OUN's desire for a Ukrainian state which would especially protect and encourage the flourishing of Ukrainian culture, I say that such an aspiration was and is almost _de rigueur_ for countries which have endured cultural oppression. Furthermore, under its current leadership, OUN has adopted a multi-racial or multi-cultural policy for Ukraine, under which no cultural tradition is favoured (though the members hope, of course, that the Ukrainian tradition will especially flourish).
If I may be so bold, I think there is an error in the following sentence: "This is not an argument against ignoring historical cases that bare a passable resemblance to the current situation." Presumably it should say "This is not an argument in favour of ignoring historical cases that bare a passable resemblance to the current situation"…?
"Most of all it will confirm a view of Russia as predatory, cynical, and untrustworthy, however unfair this may seem to those who know the best of Russia and its potential to . "
Showing that it would be a very good thing if Russia did play a constructive role in international affairs, is no evidence at all that it ever will. If it has not done so in the last human lifetime, it probably won't in the next. It might. But that is not the way to bet.
Very good insights here for a history buff. My wife and I are in Canada having fled the war 10 days after it started. We depend heavily on Western arms but they trickle in too slowly and many Ukrainians die and much of Ukraine is destroyed in the mean time. It is like the West wants both Ukraine and Russia to bleed to death slowly. I have long suspected Western Europe fears a developed democratic Ukraine as at least an Agricultural powerhouse.
History exerts a spectral presence on the entire war for sure. I actually wrote something similar last year, about how the 19th-century was crashing into the 21st-century, even down to its rhetorical style of speaking about peoples and states.
get your facts strait . Bandera was arrested by the Gestapo and on 5 July 1941 held under house arrest. After January 1942 Bandera was transferred to Sachsenhausen concentration camp were
he spent most of the war and his two brothers were killed by Nazis for NOT cooperating with Nazis. Do not post KGB propaganda on your sight.
Big closets in all nation’s past most full of what should be instead in the water closet.
We selectively choose what serves us in our arguments. It has to be considered with wider horizon and within a narrower timeline of memory and recent history . All in lets say 1914 to now and has to be actions taken not ideas of bad or good proposed written thoughts. We are clearly in a confrontation path of a warring nation with intent to control the world economy as British did in the 1850 - 1953 till they lost the control of world oil to Americans. Now bitten in the behind by China and a Rusia that her oil sales a represents 25% of its Economy which US in after to convert and be major supplier in Europe . Also a European Union that has yielded to American world dictatorship and is the battle ground to another eventual war in Europe and worst dependent on expensive oil from shale and an untrusted partner and a 5000 miles of delivery route .
Time to wake up Europe make your own beneficial national collective deals not US’s. Make alliances with Rusia , and the Middle East producers directly outside of the mostly American-control
US oil cartel and arm races and agencies to sell arms such as NATO .
Thank you very much for this sober article in times where hot headed accusations fly and wisenheimers sell opinions as if they were mathematical proofs.
I put this war into the following words: Ukrainian soldiers are giving their today for our tomorrow.
This phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprecedented. In 1914, the country that triggered World War I was Austria-Hungary, an empire in broad decline, and yet one determined to use its military to show the world it still mattered and to teach a harsh lesson to Serbia, which it regarded as a minor, vassal state. Sound familiar?
The best China strategy right now is to defeat Russia. Xi Jinping made a risky wager in backing Russia strongly on the eve of the invasion. If Russia comes out of this conflict a weak, marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to Xi, who is personally associated with the alliance with Putin. If, on the other hand, Putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, Xi and China will learn an ominous lesson: that the West cannot uphold its rules-based system against a sustained assault.
Most of the people in top positions in the Biden administration were senior officials in the Obama administration in 2014, when Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine. They were not able to reverse Moscow’s aggression or even make Putin pay much of a price for it. Perhaps at the time, they saw the greatest threat to global order as the Islamic State, or they were focused on the “pivot” to Asia, or they didn’t prioritize Ukraine enough. Now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last.
Excellent piece. Thank you very much.
One issue is that there are two kinds of history - the truth, as best as can be realised, embodied in some of your principles and the myths, of which there can be many totally different versions. Most political leaders and their publics have only the myths and act on those.
First Point. The 9 Rules are brilliant and should be beaten into the Foreign Affairs Department of every state with a military big enough to invade another country.
Second Point. "Can we be confident that the current leadership group in Moscow will abandon its claims on Ukraine or stop it’s instinctive attempts to bully those who refuse to bend to its will?" Of course we can't. I'd say we could bet the house the current leadership group will continue to bully and invade if it has the opportunity to do so and think they could get away with it. Therefore as long as the Ukrainians are prepared to keep fighting we should be giving as many weapons as they want and consider it a cheap price to pay for the good chance of permanently weakening an aggressive and reckless power.
I cannot stress too strongly how I agree with Lawrie in this post, having spent my career on the use of history within government. But I would add Rule 10, based on what my mentor the late W.N. Medlicott used to drill into me: 'Always consider what is going on in the rest of the world.' This applies to both sides of any conflict, as Putin would do well to consider.
Indeed - a point you made well on Thursday!
The best China strategy? Defeat Russia.
This phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprecedented. In 1914, the country that triggered World War I was Austria-Hungary, an empire in broad decline, and yet one determined to use its military to show the world it still mattered and to teach a harsh lesson to Serbia, which it regarded as a minor, vassal state. Sound familiar?
The best China strategy right now is to defeat Russia. Xi Jinping made a risky wager in backing Russia strongly on the eve of the invasion. If Russia comes out of this conflict a weak, marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to Xi, who is personally associated with the alliance with Putin. If, on the other hand, Putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, Xi and China will learn an ominous lesson: that the West cannot uphold its rules-based system against a sustained assault.
Most of the people in top positions in the Biden administration were senior officials in the Obama administration in 2014, when Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine. They were not able to reverse Moscow’s aggression or even make Putin pay much of a price for it. Perhaps at the time, they saw the greatest threat to global order as the Islamic State, or they were focused on the “pivot” to Asia, or they didn’t prioritize Ukraine enough. Now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/09/biden-administration-defeat-russia-contain-china-ukraine-war/
The West, if there is such a thing, has the overwhelming majority of its citizens primarily concerned with yammering, online shopping, social media, and keeping up with the Joneses. It is no match for determinded autocracies that operate under the convenient umbrella of nuclear weapons and know how to out-horror those who love life.
You mentioned Stepan Bandera. He did collaborated with Nazi but for a short period. He end up in concentration camp. Though You translate Russian propaganda
Western Ukrainians fought with the Nazis then fought against them then fought against the Red Army until 1955, which is why Russia hates them and calls them Nazis
Re: Lawrence Freedman: _Spirits of the Past: The Role of History in the Russo-Ukraine War_.
Imho: Everyone should agree that Stepan Bandera and the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists *never for a moment* wished to see Ukraine governed by Germans. To what extent OUN(B) is to be blamed for its sometime alliance-of-convenience with Germans is a moot point.
As for OUN's desire for a Ukrainian state which would especially protect and encourage the flourishing of Ukrainian culture, I say that such an aspiration was and is almost _de rigueur_ for countries which have endured cultural oppression. Furthermore, under its current leadership, OUN has adopted a multi-racial or multi-cultural policy for Ukraine, under which no cultural tradition is favoured (though the members hope, of course, that the Ukrainian tradition will especially flourish).
Another excellent piece.
If I may be so bold, I think there is an error in the following sentence: "This is not an argument against ignoring historical cases that bare a passable resemblance to the current situation." Presumably it should say "This is not an argument in favour of ignoring historical cases that bare a passable resemblance to the current situation"…?
you are right. Thanks! Will change
and "bear" for "bare"? (And, so far as I understand, I agree with Sergii and Allen Hingston about Stepan Bandera.)
Martin Arnold
"Most of all it will confirm a view of Russia as predatory, cynical, and untrustworthy, however unfair this may seem to those who know the best of Russia and its potential to . "
Showing that it would be a very good thing if Russia did play a constructive role in international affairs, is no evidence at all that it ever will. If it has not done so in the last human lifetime, it probably won't in the next. It might. But that is not the way to bet.
Very good insights here for a history buff. My wife and I are in Canada having fled the war 10 days after it started. We depend heavily on Western arms but they trickle in too slowly and many Ukrainians die and much of Ukraine is destroyed in the mean time. It is like the West wants both Ukraine and Russia to bleed to death slowly. I have long suspected Western Europe fears a developed democratic Ukraine as at least an Agricultural powerhouse.
You are assuming Western Europe has any coherent position at all, other than "That's terrible; someone else should do something about it."
Very insightful piece, brilliant and spot on!
History exerts a spectral presence on the entire war for sure. I actually wrote something similar last year, about how the 19th-century was crashing into the 21st-century, even down to its rhetorical style of speaking about peoples and states.
I suggest maybe reading it:
https://novum.substack.com/p/the-19th-century-returns
get your facts strait . Bandera was arrested by the Gestapo and on 5 July 1941 held under house arrest. After January 1942 Bandera was transferred to Sachsenhausen concentration camp were
he spent most of the war and his two brothers were killed by Nazis for NOT cooperating with Nazis. Do not post KGB propaganda on your sight.
Big closets in all nation’s past most full of what should be instead in the water closet.
We selectively choose what serves us in our arguments. It has to be considered with wider horizon and within a narrower timeline of memory and recent history . All in lets say 1914 to now and has to be actions taken not ideas of bad or good proposed written thoughts. We are clearly in a confrontation path of a warring nation with intent to control the world economy as British did in the 1850 - 1953 till they lost the control of world oil to Americans. Now bitten in the behind by China and a Rusia that her oil sales a represents 25% of its Economy which US in after to convert and be major supplier in Europe . Also a European Union that has yielded to American world dictatorship and is the battle ground to another eventual war in Europe and worst dependent on expensive oil from shale and an untrusted partner and a 5000 miles of delivery route .
Time to wake up Europe make your own beneficial national collective deals not US’s. Make alliances with Rusia , and the Middle East producers directly outside of the mostly American-control
US oil cartel and arm races and agencies to sell arms such as NATO .
Thank you very much for this sober article in times where hot headed accusations fly and wisenheimers sell opinions as if they were mathematical proofs.
I put this war into the following words: Ukrainian soldiers are giving their today for our tomorrow.
"The best China strategy? Defeat Russia."
This phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprecedented. In 1914, the country that triggered World War I was Austria-Hungary, an empire in broad decline, and yet one determined to use its military to show the world it still mattered and to teach a harsh lesson to Serbia, which it regarded as a minor, vassal state. Sound familiar?
The best China strategy right now is to defeat Russia. Xi Jinping made a risky wager in backing Russia strongly on the eve of the invasion. If Russia comes out of this conflict a weak, marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to Xi, who is personally associated with the alliance with Putin. If, on the other hand, Putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, Xi and China will learn an ominous lesson: that the West cannot uphold its rules-based system against a sustained assault.
Most of the people in top positions in the Biden administration were senior officials in the Obama administration in 2014, when Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine. They were not able to reverse Moscow’s aggression or even make Putin pay much of a price for it. Perhaps at the time, they saw the greatest threat to global order as the Islamic State, or they were focused on the “pivot” to Asia, or they didn’t prioritize Ukraine enough. Now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/09/biden-administration-defeat-russia-contain-china-ukraine-war/
"So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past."
- The Great Gatsby (last lines)
Very insightful.