First, welcome to new readers who’ve signed up over the past week - more than 1,200 of you. We’re now past 34,500, in 159 countries, which makes us one of the most popular substacks based outside the US. You can find out more about what we do, and who we are, on our
For Sam - more an article suggestion than a question but I would be interested to see your thoughts on how a Labour Government might succeed/fail. Specifically if you assume they have won next year's election with a workable majority (say 40 odd), two descriptions of how events might unfold over the subsequent four/five years - one where things go mostly right and they cruise to re-election, and one where things don't go so well and they end up as a one term government.
For Lawrence - if, as we hope, Russia loses the war in Ukraine, what impact/ramifications (if any) might this have for all the countries around the world that have tacitly or explicitly taken their side in this conflict?
I just wanted to thank you for one of the most thought provoking blogs. I always look forward to the excellent analysis of both the father and the son.
Question from Sam. What do you think will happen around Academies and school reform under a Starmer administration? I have not read much in recent years from Bridget Philipson on this issue and I would be intrigued on your thoughts as I am a primary school Assistant Head Teacher, who currently works for a fairly large (30 plus schools) academy chain and previously worked for a local authority school in Wandsworth. It really feels like the system is stuck in this strange limbo where most secondary schools are now academies but many primaries are not and the whole system feels incoherent. Local authorities still having major roles in SEND, safe guarding, school places but then no authority or ability to act in some key ways to improve these things.
Anyway, this is a bit rambling. I adore the substack and love the range of issues covered. Also, as a former War Studies undergraduate at Kings it is always excellent to read anything by my distinguished former Professor.
From a fellow (far less distinguished) commentator, for Lawrence.
To what extent, if any, does commentating on an emerging and developing situation "lock" you into interpretations of each stage that you may not form if you come to the whole situation afresh?
Does commentating as you go along helpfully remind you of the uncertainty and contingent nature of the unfolding events? Or can it mean you persist in views which become overtaken?
Many (not all) of the conflicts you have written on Lawrence have been with the benefit of hindsight: what is it like to have a Substack/blog to commentate as a conflict goes along?
Qu for Lawrence - do democracies tend to underestimate the level of popular support authoritarian regimes command in their country, because their values and behaviour are often such an anathema to us? For example, it looks like the Allied leaders were surprised by the extent and longevity of German resistance in 1945 as it appeared so obvious that Germany couldn't win, the population was suffering and would surely start to turn against the Nazi regime. Are we underestimating the potential level of support for Putin, the concept of a greater Russia and the attraction of a strong authocratic leader amongst the wider Russian population?
Question for Sam from a Welsh subscriber: what do you think about Labour’s plans for greater devolution in the UK, particularly in the report from Gordon Brown published recently? More broadly, I’d be interested in your views on devolved governance and the state of the UK’s constitutional make-up. What are the prospects for a sustainable settlement that produces better policy outcomes (especially in the nations and poorer regions of England) and holds the UK together?
Hi Sam - could you write a post about a policy success? Where a new policy has been implemented well and made a material improvement to the UK and peoples lives. I’m sure you can find one somewhere! It would be interesting to read what made it successful and what the lesson are for policy making in other areas. Also it would make a nice change from all the “everything is broken” posts! As necessary as they are. Thanks!
On housing. Not enough written on two of my biggest bugbears: second homeowners and Airbnb. I have so many questions I could ask but will keep it simple: how much are they a factor in our housing crisis? And if they are, what can we do about them? What will Labour do about them, if anything?
Nothing illustrates the gaping divide in our country more than those who can barely afford to pay rent on their damp, mould-infested bedsit, whilst second homeowners buy up property (to then rent out) all over Cornwall, Devon, Suffolk, Costwolds...
Regarding the war in Ukraine I recently found the Lanchester Equations. They suggest that unless Ukraine can win quickly then either Russia will win or NATO will have to send soldiers. I would really like to see some discussion of this.
For Sam - I have seen you comment elsewhere that you see education as a relative success (if you ignore the collapse of the workforce and potentially a number of school buildings...). As a parent of two teens I find it hard to view this way. Although both will come out of the system as supposed ‘successes’ their experience, particularly up to GCSE is of what they describe as tick box learning (my eldest literally downloaded all the GCSE curriculum specs and ticked them off), memorising lots of content for the exam which has now been forgotten, and little room in the curriculum for exploring areas of interest or for creativity. My eldest is from the first few cohorts that studied both GCSE and A Level under the post 2016 revised curricula and if she and her friends are anything to go by, when their age group is a position to make policy decisions about education there will be a major backlash!
I don’t think it is just usual teenage push back - the able pupils resent being pulled back to “what you need to do for a 16 mark question” just as they want to explore something in greater depth that coursework etc would allow for and the less able just feel overwhelmed by the number of boxes they need to tick. Is it really necessary to do 8-12 GCSEs exams, especially now school leaving age is 18? Couldn’t they just concentrate public exams at 15/16 on core English and Maths skills and then have a more differentiated curriculum through 15-18, providing more coherent vocational pathways as well as avoiding the big gap between even top grade GCSEs and A levels and giving space to carry on in some form with a language or art subject even if doing science A levels (and vice versa)?
I could go on... I’m all for rigour and stretching pupils and agree that exams have their place - but now that the first few cohorts are through the 2016 revised curricula isn’t it time to take stock? Are our young people adequately equipped for university or the world of work; what are their attitudes to the further learning and training they are undoubtedly going to need to do throughout their working lives; are there negative impacts in terms of mental health that we need to address? And are we listening at all to young people to understand how they experience the system, how it’s affected their attitudes towards education and what the long term impacts may be?
And one last thing - what can be done about 6th form funding? It seems to have shrunk to a level that just can’t be sustainable.
For Sam: what advice would you give to those of us aspiring to make policy (particularly from a civil service perspective)? How should we cultivate the right skills to do a good job, and what are the pitfalls to avoid?
Many University Students who will be graduating at some point over the next couple years with an interest in policy and politics will be looking to the coming election (and the likely result) as a good opportunity to get involved in policymaking or politics more generally, whether in or alongside a political party, or in think tanks, or policy lobby organisations.
However, unless you have prior access into the world of politics and government through family, friends, or your academic institution, it can appear to be an opaque industry with few clear routes in.
What would your advice to those people looking to start a career in policy or politics, more generally, in the current climate, be?
1. I do know you have been quite busy with Ukraine and its consequences..Yet what about Xi & Taiwan?
Mainly in the US nat-sec community there is a widespread discussion going on..They even argue that Xi’s calculus with respect to Taiwan might not be influenced by Russsian failure due the chinese think they can do better & more effective than Russians..What is your take?
2. More broadly you wrote many books on strategy and war…Mostly you ve been right all along ..What are your main reservationts regarding INTR realists? Do you think that thenflow of historiy is more affected by persons or masses (marxist take)? (Old dilemma among historians)
Another Question for Sam:
Regarding tories future its very likely the “callaghan moment” occurs next year..Labour wins outright majority..What about Tories? Rishi might be gone by 2025..
In this context - How do you rate chances of Penny Mordaunt taking over? What would the future for tories look like?
Hi both
For Sam - more an article suggestion than a question but I would be interested to see your thoughts on how a Labour Government might succeed/fail. Specifically if you assume they have won next year's election with a workable majority (say 40 odd), two descriptions of how events might unfold over the subsequent four/five years - one where things go mostly right and they cruise to re-election, and one where things don't go so well and they end up as a one term government.
For Lawrence - if, as we hope, Russia loses the war in Ukraine, what impact/ramifications (if any) might this have for all the countries around the world that have tacitly or explicitly taken their side in this conflict?
Thanks
Alex
I just wanted to thank you for one of the most thought provoking blogs. I always look forward to the excellent analysis of both the father and the son.
Question from Sam. What do you think will happen around Academies and school reform under a Starmer administration? I have not read much in recent years from Bridget Philipson on this issue and I would be intrigued on your thoughts as I am a primary school Assistant Head Teacher, who currently works for a fairly large (30 plus schools) academy chain and previously worked for a local authority school in Wandsworth. It really feels like the system is stuck in this strange limbo where most secondary schools are now academies but many primaries are not and the whole system feels incoherent. Local authorities still having major roles in SEND, safe guarding, school places but then no authority or ability to act in some key ways to improve these things.
Anyway, this is a bit rambling. I adore the substack and love the range of issues covered. Also, as a former War Studies undergraduate at Kings it is always excellent to read anything by my distinguished former Professor.
From a fellow (far less distinguished) commentator, for Lawrence.
To what extent, if any, does commentating on an emerging and developing situation "lock" you into interpretations of each stage that you may not form if you come to the whole situation afresh?
Does commentating as you go along helpfully remind you of the uncertainty and contingent nature of the unfolding events? Or can it mean you persist in views which become overtaken?
Many (not all) of the conflicts you have written on Lawrence have been with the benefit of hindsight: what is it like to have a Substack/blog to commentate as a conflict goes along?
Qu for Lawrence - do democracies tend to underestimate the level of popular support authoritarian regimes command in their country, because their values and behaviour are often such an anathema to us? For example, it looks like the Allied leaders were surprised by the extent and longevity of German resistance in 1945 as it appeared so obvious that Germany couldn't win, the population was suffering and would surely start to turn against the Nazi regime. Are we underestimating the potential level of support for Putin, the concept of a greater Russia and the attraction of a strong authocratic leader amongst the wider Russian population?
Question for Sam from a Welsh subscriber: what do you think about Labour’s plans for greater devolution in the UK, particularly in the report from Gordon Brown published recently? More broadly, I’d be interested in your views on devolved governance and the state of the UK’s constitutional make-up. What are the prospects for a sustainable settlement that produces better policy outcomes (especially in the nations and poorer regions of England) and holds the UK together?
Hi Sam - could you write a post about a policy success? Where a new policy has been implemented well and made a material improvement to the UK and peoples lives. I’m sure you can find one somewhere! It would be interesting to read what made it successful and what the lesson are for policy making in other areas. Also it would make a nice change from all the “everything is broken” posts! As necessary as they are. Thanks!
What are your predictions for the upcoming by-elections (including Mid-Beds assuming Dorries finally resigns)?
Terrific Substack you two.
For Sam:
On housing. Not enough written on two of my biggest bugbears: second homeowners and Airbnb. I have so many questions I could ask but will keep it simple: how much are they a factor in our housing crisis? And if they are, what can we do about them? What will Labour do about them, if anything?
Nothing illustrates the gaping divide in our country more than those who can barely afford to pay rent on their damp, mould-infested bedsit, whilst second homeowners buy up property (to then rent out) all over Cornwall, Devon, Suffolk, Costwolds...
Thanks.
Great Substack Sam and Lawrence.
1. The central question in the UK. How do we get out of this mess? Is there a core of policies that can transform our prospects
2. Instability in Russia. Pros and cons and strategic options for Ukraine and the West in hastening / delaying this.
Those cut to the heart of the matter.
Also a reading list from both of you would be awesome.
To Lawrence - what substantive impact do you feel will the mutiny / coup attempt have on Russian conduct and objectives in fighting the war now ?
Regarding the war in Ukraine I recently found the Lanchester Equations. They suggest that unless Ukraine can win quickly then either Russia will win or NATO will have to send soldiers. I would really like to see some discussion of this.
For Sam - I have seen you comment elsewhere that you see education as a relative success (if you ignore the collapse of the workforce and potentially a number of school buildings...). As a parent of two teens I find it hard to view this way. Although both will come out of the system as supposed ‘successes’ their experience, particularly up to GCSE is of what they describe as tick box learning (my eldest literally downloaded all the GCSE curriculum specs and ticked them off), memorising lots of content for the exam which has now been forgotten, and little room in the curriculum for exploring areas of interest or for creativity. My eldest is from the first few cohorts that studied both GCSE and A Level under the post 2016 revised curricula and if she and her friends are anything to go by, when their age group is a position to make policy decisions about education there will be a major backlash!
I don’t think it is just usual teenage push back - the able pupils resent being pulled back to “what you need to do for a 16 mark question” just as they want to explore something in greater depth that coursework etc would allow for and the less able just feel overwhelmed by the number of boxes they need to tick. Is it really necessary to do 8-12 GCSEs exams, especially now school leaving age is 18? Couldn’t they just concentrate public exams at 15/16 on core English and Maths skills and then have a more differentiated curriculum through 15-18, providing more coherent vocational pathways as well as avoiding the big gap between even top grade GCSEs and A levels and giving space to carry on in some form with a language or art subject even if doing science A levels (and vice versa)?
I could go on... I’m all for rigour and stretching pupils and agree that exams have their place - but now that the first few cohorts are through the 2016 revised curricula isn’t it time to take stock? Are our young people adequately equipped for university or the world of work; what are their attitudes to the further learning and training they are undoubtedly going to need to do throughout their working lives; are there negative impacts in terms of mental health that we need to address? And are we listening at all to young people to understand how they experience the system, how it’s affected their attitudes towards education and what the long term impacts may be?
And one last thing - what can be done about 6th form funding? It seems to have shrunk to a level that just can’t be sustainable.
For Sam: what advice would you give to those of us aspiring to make policy (particularly from a civil service perspective)? How should we cultivate the right skills to do a good job, and what are the pitfalls to avoid?
For Sam:
Many University Students who will be graduating at some point over the next couple years with an interest in policy and politics will be looking to the coming election (and the likely result) as a good opportunity to get involved in policymaking or politics more generally, whether in or alongside a political party, or in think tanks, or policy lobby organisations.
However, unless you have prior access into the world of politics and government through family, friends, or your academic institution, it can appear to be an opaque industry with few clear routes in.
What would your advice to those people looking to start a career in policy or politics, more generally, in the current climate, be?
2Qs for Sir Lawrence
1. I do know you have been quite busy with Ukraine and its consequences..Yet what about Xi & Taiwan?
Mainly in the US nat-sec community there is a widespread discussion going on..They even argue that Xi’s calculus with respect to Taiwan might not be influenced by Russsian failure due the chinese think they can do better & more effective than Russians..What is your take?
2. More broadly you wrote many books on strategy and war…Mostly you ve been right all along ..What are your main reservationts regarding INTR realists? Do you think that thenflow of historiy is more affected by persons or masses (marxist take)? (Old dilemma among historians)
Another Question for Sam:
Regarding tories future its very likely the “callaghan moment” occurs next year..Labour wins outright majority..What about Tories? Rishi might be gone by 2025..
In this context - How do you rate chances of Penny Mordaunt taking over? What would the future for tories look like?