It’s been a while since we did an update and there are a few things to let you know about. But first a quick introduction for new subscribers who might be wondering exactly what they’ve signed up to: You can find out more about what we do, and who we are, on our about page. But the quick version is that this is a father and son substack. Lawrence (the father) is Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College, London, and author of many books on strategy and military history. He focuses on conflicts around the world and particularly Ukraine.
A Lawrence question: tanks, aircraft carriers, and military planes have become assets too valuable to risk in actual combat (e.g., F-35 at $80 million each). Drones are astonishingly cheaper and harder to find/track/kill. How do you think the role of the expensive assets will change in the next two decades?
First, not a question! Congratulations on launching and maintaining such a great contribution to Substack. Every one of the posts from both Lawrie and Sam have been insightful and analytically robust. Keep up the good work! I have three linked questions:
First, to what extent is the Russian threat to Europe over or under recognised? Lawrie’s ‘salami and boiled frogs’ post was particularly percipient, but I fear that our current politicians, although understanding the concepts, might not be able to do anything about it, which leads to the second question:
If the government, or even European governments in general, can realise the full extent of the threat, can they then persuade the electorate to stump up the tax revenues for the appropriate level of defence spending: maybe as much as 4%? How much do we need to spend to deter Russia?
Third, not quite so linked: there are many sources of analysis and commentary on the Russian-Ukraine war from various UK sources: RUSI, Chatham House, IISS, various War Studies department at a number of universities (including KCL WS) and journalists. But none of these (apart from Lawrie) seems to integrate the political war rationale with the details of warfare (I draw a distinction between the two) and the internal and external politics of the protagonists. Save of course The Economist, whose occasional seminars are particularly insightful. The comment on all that would prove most useful
Given labour seem to following the Truss formula of pinning all their hopes on growth without any investment. Asides from the well documented planning reform strategies, what are the 3 to 5 policy interventions to increase growth quickest you would implement if the optics/politics weren't an issue (either through reform or infrastructure investment)
Thank you for the invitation to pose questions. I’d be interested to know what Lawrence thinks of Ukraine’s war-aims: are they realistic and/or achievable ? If yes, then on what time-scale? If no, then what - if any - negotiated settlement would be acceptable to the Ukraine? The war will clearly continue into at least 2024. Will this affect Western support? Should China make a move to invade Taiwan, is the USA now capable of fighting a world war on multiple fronts?
1. I was quite surprised by Kemi Badenoch (whom I consider to be more "radical" and "soundbites" type of politician) by being quite cautious with respect to formally declare China as a threat. Yet, from pragmatic point of view more robust approach in the background rather than official declaration with no tangible results. Might it be that (like many gifted politicians before her) she is realising the difference between poetry on backbenches and prose on the frontbench? And that she is (unlike lets say Braverman) quite a promising politician of post-2024 Tories?
2. Ben Wallace has gone. Mark Galeotti told me he saw him as a really good defence secretary. How do you asses his days in office? Do you think he can ever come back to the UK politics? (in your country I believe it is not very common). He might be a very able secretary but not very shrewd politician (losing support from US for NATO position, hi support for Liz Truss)
3. What is your take on his succesor? Why do you think Sunak did not go for Penny Mordaunt that seemed to be quite a natural choice.
Qs for Sir Lawrence:
1. The meeting between Putin and Kim has just concluded. How do you see with this respect the problem of North Korea nuclear arsenal? M. Garlauskas (dir Indo-Pac security Initiative) suggested that its not Ukraine but rather Korean peninsula where there is a potential risk of escalation?
2. US AF secretary suggested few days ago regarding China massive military build-up that "China is preparing for War with US.." But isn't it logical that when cointry is arming it is getting ready for potential war? What is the significance of current US deals with Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Phillipines?
For Lawrence I have a question which is probably too simplistic but I thought I'd try it anyway: how fast can the Russians build minefields and fortifications? I can see that the Ukrainians can, with great courage, force Russian fortified lines, but to this amateur it seems to take a long time. Longer, in fact than it would take Russians to create 4th and 5th lines in the affected zones. So breakthrough seems to be out of reach, unless the Russians are completely attritted, which they are not, are they?
Or put another way - are we likely in 1918 or in 1917?
Hi Sam, really enjoy the substack. Question for you: what do you think will be some of the most interesting individual races in the 2024 election and why?
Sam, I'd love some help thinking through the national budget and what I'd cost to get my full shopping list of public goods. Mostly as, the list of things I'd love to see over the next decade grows long, and I have little sense over if it is all truly possible, or where I'd need to make trade offs.
Taking your own wish list, do you have a sense of Max-Min costs to say...
In spending terms
- Properly fund a criminal justice system (CPS and courts especially)
- Provide a meaningful social care service
- Fund the NHS to levels that can cope with an aging population
- Ensure a quality universal education for all children
- Put local authorities on a secure funding footing to provide both core services and public goods that folks can see
And capital terms:
- To rebuild and maintain public buildings (RAAC included)
- Improve transport infrastructure outside of London
- Finance the transition to renewable energy (grid and transformers not just generation)
- As it's a shopping list, let's throw in a proper house building initiative too.
Whilst I'm sure we could debate costs and reform, and regain money by stopping some things or seeing higher growth, For your interest in these areas (and anything else), what do you think it would cost to do them all?
Then later we can talk about reasonable tax and growth scenarios to work out what's likely 😂.
I take this opportunity to add to your general introduction of your joint Substack. The decline of Twitter does indeed leave rom for this sort of in-depth (or at least more in-depth) comment. I, for one, find the two contributors, father and son, write thoughtful pieces, well aligned with what interests me, and would warmly recommend anyone who does not already support the Substack to do so.
For Sam: Given that Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU single market and customs union (and therefore the EU), what are his chances of getting the "much better deal" he says he hopes for when the current one comes up for review in 2025?
For Sam: I thoroughly enjoy reading your columns and agree with much of your analysis on what needs to change in fields such as education and health. At the same time, I strongly believe that we need to move to a new form of democracy that devolves more power locally and involves the general public in a wider variety of democratic processes such as citizen’s assemblies. Do you agree there is a need for an increase in democratic processes and if so how do you see the role of experts such as yourself changing to work with them?
For Sam, How likely do you think it is that the Conservatives will try to leave the ECHR or make that a policy goal going into the election or afterwards?
Not much attention was paid to the issue regarding Russian drones in the Romanian territory. Interestingly, I haven't noticed much response on the part of NATO and/or US. Regarding the logic of deterrence isn't it dangerous precedent? Some Russian soldiers deployed in the Blacsk Sea Region can foolishly assume its safe to push further...
One and a half for Sam, is there any faction in the Tory party arguing that making a noisy effort to fix, at least some of our issues, would benefit them in the election? And is there much soul searching about how 13 years of Tory rule has led to this?
For Lawrence, is there any discussion about the balance of Ukrainian expenditure between war & maintaining domestic standards of living? I'm guessing it's principly based on funding constraints & domestic politics but I don't see any comment on the matter.
A Lawrence question: tanks, aircraft carriers, and military planes have become assets too valuable to risk in actual combat (e.g., F-35 at $80 million each). Drones are astonishingly cheaper and harder to find/track/kill. How do you think the role of the expensive assets will change in the next two decades?
For Sam: given that there is virtually no aspect of the country that isn't broken, what criteria should be used to set priorities?
For Lawrence: despite my best efforts reading around, I struggle to understand Wagner's role in Africa. Can you shed any light?
Thanks for the Substack!
First, not a question! Congratulations on launching and maintaining such a great contribution to Substack. Every one of the posts from both Lawrie and Sam have been insightful and analytically robust. Keep up the good work! I have three linked questions:
First, to what extent is the Russian threat to Europe over or under recognised? Lawrie’s ‘salami and boiled frogs’ post was particularly percipient, but I fear that our current politicians, although understanding the concepts, might not be able to do anything about it, which leads to the second question:
If the government, or even European governments in general, can realise the full extent of the threat, can they then persuade the electorate to stump up the tax revenues for the appropriate level of defence spending: maybe as much as 4%? How much do we need to spend to deter Russia?
Third, not quite so linked: there are many sources of analysis and commentary on the Russian-Ukraine war from various UK sources: RUSI, Chatham House, IISS, various War Studies department at a number of universities (including KCL WS) and journalists. But none of these (apart from Lawrie) seems to integrate the political war rationale with the details of warfare (I draw a distinction between the two) and the internal and external politics of the protagonists. Save of course The Economist, whose occasional seminars are particularly insightful. The comment on all that would prove most useful
Chris Pike
Given labour seem to following the Truss formula of pinning all their hopes on growth without any investment. Asides from the well documented planning reform strategies, what are the 3 to 5 policy interventions to increase growth quickest you would implement if the optics/politics weren't an issue (either through reform or infrastructure investment)
Thank you for the invitation to pose questions. I’d be interested to know what Lawrence thinks of Ukraine’s war-aims: are they realistic and/or achievable ? If yes, then on what time-scale? If no, then what - if any - negotiated settlement would be acceptable to the Ukraine? The war will clearly continue into at least 2024. Will this affect Western support? Should China make a move to invade Taiwan, is the USA now capable of fighting a world war on multiple fronts?
Qs for Sam:
1. I was quite surprised by Kemi Badenoch (whom I consider to be more "radical" and "soundbites" type of politician) by being quite cautious with respect to formally declare China as a threat. Yet, from pragmatic point of view more robust approach in the background rather than official declaration with no tangible results. Might it be that (like many gifted politicians before her) she is realising the difference between poetry on backbenches and prose on the frontbench? And that she is (unlike lets say Braverman) quite a promising politician of post-2024 Tories?
2. Ben Wallace has gone. Mark Galeotti told me he saw him as a really good defence secretary. How do you asses his days in office? Do you think he can ever come back to the UK politics? (in your country I believe it is not very common). He might be a very able secretary but not very shrewd politician (losing support from US for NATO position, hi support for Liz Truss)
3. What is your take on his succesor? Why do you think Sunak did not go for Penny Mordaunt that seemed to be quite a natural choice.
Qs for Sir Lawrence:
1. The meeting between Putin and Kim has just concluded. How do you see with this respect the problem of North Korea nuclear arsenal? M. Garlauskas (dir Indo-Pac security Initiative) suggested that its not Ukraine but rather Korean peninsula where there is a potential risk of escalation?
2. US AF secretary suggested few days ago regarding China massive military build-up that "China is preparing for War with US.." But isn't it logical that when cointry is arming it is getting ready for potential war? What is the significance of current US deals with Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Phillipines?
For Lawrence I have a question which is probably too simplistic but I thought I'd try it anyway: how fast can the Russians build minefields and fortifications? I can see that the Ukrainians can, with great courage, force Russian fortified lines, but to this amateur it seems to take a long time. Longer, in fact than it would take Russians to create 4th and 5th lines in the affected zones. So breakthrough seems to be out of reach, unless the Russians are completely attritted, which they are not, are they?
Or put another way - are we likely in 1918 or in 1917?
Hi Sam, really enjoy the substack. Question for you: what do you think will be some of the most interesting individual races in the 2024 election and why?
Sam, I'd love some help thinking through the national budget and what I'd cost to get my full shopping list of public goods. Mostly as, the list of things I'd love to see over the next decade grows long, and I have little sense over if it is all truly possible, or where I'd need to make trade offs.
Taking your own wish list, do you have a sense of Max-Min costs to say...
In spending terms
- Properly fund a criminal justice system (CPS and courts especially)
- Provide a meaningful social care service
- Fund the NHS to levels that can cope with an aging population
- Ensure a quality universal education for all children
- Put local authorities on a secure funding footing to provide both core services and public goods that folks can see
And capital terms:
- To rebuild and maintain public buildings (RAAC included)
- Improve transport infrastructure outside of London
- Finance the transition to renewable energy (grid and transformers not just generation)
- As it's a shopping list, let's throw in a proper house building initiative too.
Whilst I'm sure we could debate costs and reform, and regain money by stopping some things or seeing higher growth, For your interest in these areas (and anything else), what do you think it would cost to do them all?
Then later we can talk about reasonable tax and growth scenarios to work out what's likely 😂.
I take this opportunity to add to your general introduction of your joint Substack. The decline of Twitter does indeed leave rom for this sort of in-depth (or at least more in-depth) comment. I, for one, find the two contributors, father and son, write thoughtful pieces, well aligned with what interests me, and would warmly recommend anyone who does not already support the Substack to do so.
For Sam: Given that Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU single market and customs union (and therefore the EU), what are his chances of getting the "much better deal" he says he hopes for when the current one comes up for review in 2025?
For Sam: Will interest in interest rates for politicians decline as home ownership among the young decreases over time?
For Sam: I thoroughly enjoy reading your columns and agree with much of your analysis on what needs to change in fields such as education and health. At the same time, I strongly believe that we need to move to a new form of democracy that devolves more power locally and involves the general public in a wider variety of democratic processes such as citizen’s assemblies. Do you agree there is a need for an increase in democratic processes and if so how do you see the role of experts such as yourself changing to work with them?
For Sam, How likely do you think it is that the Conservatives will try to leave the ECHR or make that a policy goal going into the election or afterwards?
Another for Sir Lawerence:
Not much attention was paid to the issue regarding Russian drones in the Romanian territory. Interestingly, I haven't noticed much response on the part of NATO and/or US. Regarding the logic of deterrence isn't it dangerous precedent? Some Russian soldiers deployed in the Blacsk Sea Region can foolishly assume its safe to push further...
One and a half for Sam, is there any faction in the Tory party arguing that making a noisy effort to fix, at least some of our issues, would benefit them in the election? And is there much soul searching about how 13 years of Tory rule has led to this?
For Lawrence, is there any discussion about the balance of Ukrainian expenditure between war & maintaining domestic standards of living? I'm guessing it's principly based on funding constraints & domestic politics but I don't see any comment on the matter.