An F-16 Fighting Falcon - the latest offensive weapon the West have agreed to supply to Ukraine Prime Minister, you believe in the nuclear deterrent? - Oh, yes. - Why? - Pardon? - Why? - Because it deters. - Whom? - Pardon? - Whom? Whom does it deter?
When the history of this war is written one of the great talking points will be how quickly crossed were the Western red lines about providing military aid. The war is only 16 months old and while Ukraine wants more (notably very long range artillery) really they’ve got just about everything they’ve asked for albeit not in the quantities they desired. Sure I’d have liked it to come faster but really the rate of arming and progress has been quite remarkable.
The other talking point will be the transformation of Putin from masterful risk taker to ineffectual blusterer. I’ve lost count of the number of times he’s threatened nuclear retaliation only to demonstrate that the big problem with nuclear weapons is you can’t really use them.
My feeling is what’s happened with Putin and the West has been a reckless bully who’s pushed a placid giant too far. Every step he took, he got away with because the West didn’t really want to fight. but he didn’t realize that he was building increasing resentment in a stronger adversary. When he finally pushed too far the giant roared with rage and reacted with a strength Putin never saw coming. The economic sanctions alone are unprecedented and now the West has got the oil price cap going the medium to long term outlook for the Russian economy looks disastrous. And by medium term I mean in about 18 months. I can’t see them being lifted while Putin or someone like minded rules Russia.
The Western response to the Russian takeover of Crimea may have been muted by the fact that Crimea has changed hands a great many times over its long history, part of which - from 1774 until the 1990s - witnessed Russian (Soviet) control of the territory. So perhaps this explains why the West responded differently to the more recent invasion of Eastern Ukraine than it did to that of Crimea - to whom Crimea belongs is hotly contestable.
To the contrary, the invasion of Ukraine proper is a big salami slice that simply could not be digested, nor is Russia anywhere near willing to contemplate giving it back, which I believe contributes to the very dangerous situation the world now faces.
Evidence suggests that Russia has found effective ways of evading the worst brunt of Western sanctions, not surprising, so they have the oxygen with which to carry on. The more they carry on, the more the Ukrainians, backed by the West, will "up the ante" in order to recover the slices it has lost or could still lose. If this results in the Russian regime feeling it's back is truly against the wall, that is when I think the West is at greatest risk to extreme reaction from Moscow.
One has to think that quietly under the hood, the US Administration has made it clear in no uncertain terms to Vladimir Putin that if he uses any nuclear weapons or power stations against Ukraine, much of Russia will be annihilated before they have a chance to retaliate - no second thoughts. With the vast sums of money and intelligence the US throws at such matters, there can be little doubt they are fully prepared to do it at little risk to themselves or others and the Russians must know this. Hence I am less concerned about a nuclear exchange than I am about the prospect of this war dragging on at great expense and loss of life for years, because the sanctions regime is insufficiently effective to choke off the Russian war machine.
Re: Georgia. A tepid response? Obama/Biden/Hillary offered Putin a “reset”- unconditional forgiveness. No sanctions, no ostracism. They flat out rewarded Putin for partition and invasion.
A very interesting and plausible picture of the situation in regard to attacks inside Russia . You clearly believe the Ukrainians are conniving in and perhaps sponsoring attacks inside Russia on targets not directly linked to Putin's assault on Ukraine. The aim presumably is to destabilise the regime.
I absolutely agree that Ukraine can have no settled peace until Putin is removed. It should be a covert aim of Western policy to achieve this. That should sit aside the only other aim of driving Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. In both cases, we have to try to avoid provoking nuclear war.
I worry however about Ukrainian involvement in matters like the drone attack on the Kremlin. These do nothing to help free Ukrainian soil and risk justifying Putin's ridiculous narrative that Russia is under threat.
Глава Минобороны Украины Алексей Резников заявил, что Киев мог бы вернуться в переговорный процесс с Москвой, однако для этого необходимо, чтобы РФ изменила заявленные цели спецоперации. По мнению министра, «денацификация» и «демилитаризация», утвержденные Кремлем как цели СВО, предполагают уничтожение украинской нации. Резников добавил, что Украина может жить «нормально, по-добрососедски со всеми соседями».
It would appear that the Clowns in the WH have some inkling of this strategy. Give Ukraine little slices slowly, so Big Mean Putin cannot say NATO has crossed the line and must be dealt with directly. But after today’s remarkable events in Russia, why are we still afraid of pissing off Pootin?! It is time to give the brave Ukrainians the jets and long-range defenses they need to end this travesty!
Глава Минобороны Украины Алексей Резников заявил, что Киев мог бы вернуться в переговорный процесс с Москвой, однако для этого необходимо, чтобы РФ изменила заявленные цели спецоперации. По мнению министра, «денацификация» и «демилитаризация», утвержденные Кремлем как цели СВО, предполагают уничтожение украинской нации. Резников добавил, что Украина может жить «нормально, по-добрососедски со всеми соседями».
The problem with salami slicers is that the thickness setting goes all the way to 11. Sooner or later the nut behind the wheel turns the dial to the max. Alexander, Napoleon, Hitler all went for it. Only Alexander (sort of) got away with it.
Moscow has driven itself in to a dead end. The longer the stalemate lasts the worst the outcome for Russia.
In the short term the UA is a modern country with the ability to develop and manufacture rockets capable of striking Moscow and a military, many middle aged with occupations, of parents and young people fighting to protect their families from death and mutilation. And Belarus is ripe for UA to salami slice a second front for Russia with a leader in waiting who won the last election.
Longer term NATO and China cannot allow Moscow to succeed nor the war drag on. Firstly every neighbour of a powerful autocratic state is growing convinced they need nuclear weapons to avoid UA’s fate. And secondly Russian state power has shown itself too weak to hold its empire together raising the likelihood of fracture and nuclear armed anarchy.
China and the US are clearly working together sending the same message. Russia should withdraw and concentrate on improving governance, instituting the rule of law, and raising the living standards of its people.
Please note that the Hungarian name is Matyas (Rákosi Mátyás) which is equivalent to Matthias, rather than MatyOs. Thank you again for writing so clearly about this conflict.
I don't think that the Kherson bridge should have been listed among "targets in Russia" that Ukraine has struck. The attack happened on the Ukrainian side of the Kerch strait, so if anything there is a strong argument to be made that it was on Ukrainian territory.
When the history of this war is written one of the great talking points will be how quickly crossed were the Western red lines about providing military aid. The war is only 16 months old and while Ukraine wants more (notably very long range artillery) really they’ve got just about everything they’ve asked for albeit not in the quantities they desired. Sure I’d have liked it to come faster but really the rate of arming and progress has been quite remarkable.
The other talking point will be the transformation of Putin from masterful risk taker to ineffectual blusterer. I’ve lost count of the number of times he’s threatened nuclear retaliation only to demonstrate that the big problem with nuclear weapons is you can’t really use them.
My feeling is what’s happened with Putin and the West has been a reckless bully who’s pushed a placid giant too far. Every step he took, he got away with because the West didn’t really want to fight. but he didn’t realize that he was building increasing resentment in a stronger adversary. When he finally pushed too far the giant roared with rage and reacted with a strength Putin never saw coming. The economic sanctions alone are unprecedented and now the West has got the oil price cap going the medium to long term outlook for the Russian economy looks disastrous. And by medium term I mean in about 18 months. I can’t see them being lifted while Putin or someone like minded rules Russia.
The Western response to the Russian takeover of Crimea may have been muted by the fact that Crimea has changed hands a great many times over its long history, part of which - from 1774 until the 1990s - witnessed Russian (Soviet) control of the territory. So perhaps this explains why the West responded differently to the more recent invasion of Eastern Ukraine than it did to that of Crimea - to whom Crimea belongs is hotly contestable.
To the contrary, the invasion of Ukraine proper is a big salami slice that simply could not be digested, nor is Russia anywhere near willing to contemplate giving it back, which I believe contributes to the very dangerous situation the world now faces.
Evidence suggests that Russia has found effective ways of evading the worst brunt of Western sanctions, not surprising, so they have the oxygen with which to carry on. The more they carry on, the more the Ukrainians, backed by the West, will "up the ante" in order to recover the slices it has lost or could still lose. If this results in the Russian regime feeling it's back is truly against the wall, that is when I think the West is at greatest risk to extreme reaction from Moscow.
One has to think that quietly under the hood, the US Administration has made it clear in no uncertain terms to Vladimir Putin that if he uses any nuclear weapons or power stations against Ukraine, much of Russia will be annihilated before they have a chance to retaliate - no second thoughts. With the vast sums of money and intelligence the US throws at such matters, there can be little doubt they are fully prepared to do it at little risk to themselves or others and the Russians must know this. Hence I am less concerned about a nuclear exchange than I am about the prospect of this war dragging on at great expense and loss of life for years, because the sanctions regime is insufficiently effective to choke off the Russian war machine.
Re: Georgia. A tepid response? Obama/Biden/Hillary offered Putin a “reset”- unconditional forgiveness. No sanctions, no ostracism. They flat out rewarded Putin for partition and invasion.
Good article. "Notable have been cruise missile attacks" should read "drone" in place of cruise missile.
A very interesting and plausible picture of the situation in regard to attacks inside Russia . You clearly believe the Ukrainians are conniving in and perhaps sponsoring attacks inside Russia on targets not directly linked to Putin's assault on Ukraine. The aim presumably is to destabilise the regime.
I absolutely agree that Ukraine can have no settled peace until Putin is removed. It should be a covert aim of Western policy to achieve this. That should sit aside the only other aim of driving Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. In both cases, we have to try to avoid provoking nuclear war.
I worry however about Ukrainian involvement in matters like the drone attack on the Kremlin. These do nothing to help free Ukrainian soil and risk justifying Putin's ridiculous narrative that Russia is under threat.
In my opinion Gazeta.ru is one of remaining in Russia interesting sources. (Mikhail Khodarionok is a columnist in it. )
https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2023/06/09/17114462.shtml
Глава Минобороны Украины Алексей Резников заявил, что Киев мог бы вернуться в переговорный процесс с Москвой, однако для этого необходимо, чтобы РФ изменила заявленные цели спецоперации. По мнению министра, «денацификация» и «демилитаризация», утвержденные Кремлем как цели СВО, предполагают уничтожение украинской нации. Резников добавил, что Украина может жить «нормально, по-добрососедски со всеми соседями».
Good summary. Worth the read and mostly factual.
"Fun fact", in case the audience haven't come across it.
Back in April 22, 2022 - 72% Shebekino residents who took part in an informal Telegram poll (out of 781 respondents) expressed support for the SMO
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxoPbb0XsAUCdS1?format=png
It would appear that the Clowns in the WH have some inkling of this strategy. Give Ukraine little slices slowly, so Big Mean Putin cannot say NATO has crossed the line and must be dealt with directly. But after today’s remarkable events in Russia, why are we still afraid of pissing off Pootin?! It is time to give the brave Ukrainians the jets and long-range defenses they need to end this travesty!
In my opinion Gazeta.ru is one of remaining in Russia interesting sources. (Mikhail Khodarionok is a columnist in it. )
https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2023/06/09/17114462.shtml
Глава Минобороны Украины Алексей Резников заявил, что Киев мог бы вернуться в переговорный процесс с Москвой, однако для этого необходимо, чтобы РФ изменила заявленные цели спецоперации. По мнению министра, «денацификация» и «демилитаризация», утвержденные Кремлем как цели СВО, предполагают уничтожение украинской нации. Резников добавил, что Украина может жить «нормально, по-добрососедски со всеми соседями».
The problem with salami slicers is that the thickness setting goes all the way to 11. Sooner or later the nut behind the wheel turns the dial to the max. Alexander, Napoleon, Hitler all went for it. Only Alexander (sort of) got away with it.
Moscow has driven itself in to a dead end. The longer the stalemate lasts the worst the outcome for Russia.
In the short term the UA is a modern country with the ability to develop and manufacture rockets capable of striking Moscow and a military, many middle aged with occupations, of parents and young people fighting to protect their families from death and mutilation. And Belarus is ripe for UA to salami slice a second front for Russia with a leader in waiting who won the last election.
Longer term NATO and China cannot allow Moscow to succeed nor the war drag on. Firstly every neighbour of a powerful autocratic state is growing convinced they need nuclear weapons to avoid UA’s fate. And secondly Russian state power has shown itself too weak to hold its empire together raising the likelihood of fracture and nuclear armed anarchy.
China and the US are clearly working together sending the same message. Russia should withdraw and concentrate on improving governance, instituting the rule of law, and raising the living standards of its people.
Please note that the Hungarian name is Matyas (Rákosi Mátyás) which is equivalent to Matthias, rather than MatyOs. Thank you again for writing so clearly about this conflict.
I don't think that the Kherson bridge should have been listed among "targets in Russia" that Ukraine has struck. The attack happened on the Ukrainian side of the Kerch strait, so if anything there is a strong argument to be made that it was on Ukrainian territory.
Another great outing from Perun on YT about this exact subject today as well
Good article. Missing word: “.. how Communists took over power IN vulnerable countries with weak political institutions.”