For the Chinese to attempt an opposed amphibious landing on Taiwan given 1) it has *no* amphibious expeditionary experience 2) the geography of Taiwan means there are few appropriate landing sites, so the appropriate ones are very well known and defended 3) the Taiwanese will oppose the invasion to their deaths as they know in many cases they die fighting or die by Chinese firing squad 4) 100 nautical miles of sea crossing with the US navy in the area and Taiwan bristling with anti-ship missiles ..... is an extremely ‘ambitious’ military operation, more complex and risky than D-Day and likely a bloody and bitter defeat for China
HI Mike. You may well be right but that doesn't mean the Chinese Generals who don't want to be sacked will tell Emporor Xi and that Emporor Xi wouldn't order an invasion if he felt it was worth the risk. Like Putin I don't think he fears being dethroned by the popular uprising if it fails and he's probably thinks he could get away with purging (or worse) the admirals and generals he sent off on this risky proposition. We do know he really, really wants to absorb Taiwan and I'm very doubtful if he gets to hear wise advice he doesn't want to hear. That's a big enough problem with democratically elected leaders, it's a huge issue with dictators.
Thankyou. If you look back on the events of the past few days you have to conclude China’s assessment is somewhere near mine. They made blood curdling and bellicose threats and then stomped around like a child having a tantrum when ignored. Significant face has been lost and Xi looks to be frank idiotic.
They chose not to escalate, we will see if their ‘exercises’ become more but they have lost any strategic surprise. There is still plenty of time but at the moment it feels like China have backed down.
There would be no surprise invasion. We would see months of movement to put troops and ships in place for that (remember that it’s pretty hard to hide from satellites).
Of course, they could fire missiles at any time, but not sure what that achieves.
Agreed. China’s strategy here is nonsensical. Why escalate Pelosi’s visit and then lose face backing off. They have put the US on warning (if they were not already fully aware as I’m sure they are) the China is seriously looking to redraw the map in the South China Sea. It will lead to war with the US and Japan
What strategy should the West use to maximise its chances of resisting these autocrats. How closely should and can Europe (I include the UK) and the US work together ?
What do you think are the chances of Taiwan becoming a nuclear power in a similar vein to Israel in order to deter China? I guess this wouldn’t stop a blockade and might even precipitate one?
You can count on mistakes in everything - and public policy, international relations and military operations are particularly uncertain areas. It would seem pretty clear that with all their messyness democracies have less hurdles in recognizing errors and changing course than dictatorships with one inflated ego having untrammalled power. People who think dictatorships are going to be better run than genuine democracies have a superficial grasp of human nature and political realities.
Dictatorships are brittle as the fate of the Greek and Argentine Colonels and Soviets showed. A little defeat damages them, sometimes fatally.
Yes, every Russian/Soviet defeat in a foreign war in the past century and a half has eventually led to regime change.
For the Chinese to attempt an opposed amphibious landing on Taiwan given 1) it has *no* amphibious expeditionary experience 2) the geography of Taiwan means there are few appropriate landing sites, so the appropriate ones are very well known and defended 3) the Taiwanese will oppose the invasion to their deaths as they know in many cases they die fighting or die by Chinese firing squad 4) 100 nautical miles of sea crossing with the US navy in the area and Taiwan bristling with anti-ship missiles ..... is an extremely ‘ambitious’ military operation, more complex and risky than D-Day and likely a bloody and bitter defeat for China
HI Mike. You may well be right but that doesn't mean the Chinese Generals who don't want to be sacked will tell Emporor Xi and that Emporor Xi wouldn't order an invasion if he felt it was worth the risk. Like Putin I don't think he fears being dethroned by the popular uprising if it fails and he's probably thinks he could get away with purging (or worse) the admirals and generals he sent off on this risky proposition. We do know he really, really wants to absorb Taiwan and I'm very doubtful if he gets to hear wise advice he doesn't want to hear. That's a big enough problem with democratically elected leaders, it's a huge issue with dictators.
Thankyou. If you look back on the events of the past few days you have to conclude China’s assessment is somewhere near mine. They made blood curdling and bellicose threats and then stomped around like a child having a tantrum when ignored. Significant face has been lost and Xi looks to be frank idiotic.
They chose not to escalate, we will see if their ‘exercises’ become more but they have lost any strategic surprise. There is still plenty of time but at the moment it feels like China have backed down.
There would be no surprise invasion. We would see months of movement to put troops and ships in place for that (remember that it’s pretty hard to hide from satellites).
Of course, they could fire missiles at any time, but not sure what that achieves.
Seems for internal Chinese consumption
That’s why missile strikes knocking out power plants and attempted blockade are more likely.
A fait accompli seems almost impossible.
Agreed. China’s strategy here is nonsensical. Why escalate Pelosi’s visit and then lose face backing off. They have put the US on warning (if they were not already fully aware as I’m sure they are) the China is seriously looking to redraw the map in the South China Sea. It will lead to war with the US and Japan
I suppose it's to warn other foreign politicians away from visiting Taiwan.
However, I'm not sure how successful they will be.
True. Any aspiring US politician needs only jump on a plane now to make a name for themselves. DeSantis? Newsome?
What strategy should the West use to maximise its chances of resisting these autocrats. How closely should and can Europe (I include the UK) and the US work together ?
What do you think are the chances of Taiwan becoming a nuclear power in a similar vein to Israel in order to deter China? I guess this wouldn’t stop a blockade and might even precipitate one?
Now you mention it, why hasn't Taiwan sought to do that already? They must have considered the possibility.
You can count on mistakes in everything - and public policy, international relations and military operations are particularly uncertain areas. It would seem pretty clear that with all their messyness democracies have less hurdles in recognizing errors and changing course than dictatorships with one inflated ego having untrammalled power. People who think dictatorships are going to be better run than genuine democracies have a superficial grasp of human nature and political realities.