Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for a photograph during their meeting in Beijing, on February 4, 2022. (Photo by Alexei Druzhinin / Sputnik / AFP) At the start of February Vladimir Putin made a pilgrimage to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The occasion was the start of the Winter Olympics, an event which was followed almost immediately by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, just as the Winter Olympics hosted by Putin in Sochi eight years earlier had also been followed almost immediately by the annexation of Crimea. Whether or not Putin told Xi of his plans it was an important part of his strategy for the coming move against Ukraine to have China on side. It suited him also to meet as if he was an equal with Xi, confirming Russia’s great power status, one of his major preoccupations. In practice, of course, the two were far from being equals. Whereas once China was the Soviet Union’s junior partner in the communist international now Russia is the weaker partner. As China vies for the top spot in the international economic rankings with the United States, Russia no longer even makes the top ten.
For the Chinese to attempt an opposed amphibious landing on Taiwan given 1) it has *no* amphibious expeditionary experience 2) the geography of Taiwan means there are few appropriate landing sites, so the appropriate ones are very well known and defended 3) the Taiwanese will oppose the invasion to their deaths as they know in many cases they die fighting or die by Chinese firing squad 4) 100 nautical miles of sea crossing with the US navy in the area and Taiwan bristling with anti-ship missiles ..... is an extremely ‘ambitious’ military operation, more complex and risky than D-Day and likely a bloody and bitter defeat for China
What strategy should the West use to maximise its chances of resisting these autocrats. How closely should and can Europe (I include the UK) and the US work together ?
What do you think are the chances of Taiwan becoming a nuclear power in a similar vein to Israel in order to deter China? I guess this wouldn’t stop a blockade and might even precipitate one?
You can count on mistakes in everything - and public policy, international relations and military operations are particularly uncertain areas. It would seem pretty clear that with all their messyness democracies have less hurdles in recognizing errors and changing course than dictatorships with one inflated ego having untrammalled power. People who think dictatorships are going to be better run than genuine democracies have a superficial grasp of human nature and political realities.
Dictatorships are brittle as the fate of the Greek and Argentine Colonels and Soviets showed. A little defeat damages them, sometimes fatally.
For the Chinese to attempt an opposed amphibious landing on Taiwan given 1) it has *no* amphibious expeditionary experience 2) the geography of Taiwan means there are few appropriate landing sites, so the appropriate ones are very well known and defended 3) the Taiwanese will oppose the invasion to their deaths as they know in many cases they die fighting or die by Chinese firing squad 4) 100 nautical miles of sea crossing with the US navy in the area and Taiwan bristling with anti-ship missiles ..... is an extremely ‘ambitious’ military operation, more complex and risky than D-Day and likely a bloody and bitter defeat for China
What strategy should the West use to maximise its chances of resisting these autocrats. How closely should and can Europe (I include the UK) and the US work together ?
What do you think are the chances of Taiwan becoming a nuclear power in a similar vein to Israel in order to deter China? I guess this wouldn’t stop a blockade and might even precipitate one?
You can count on mistakes in everything - and public policy, international relations and military operations are particularly uncertain areas. It would seem pretty clear that with all their messyness democracies have less hurdles in recognizing errors and changing course than dictatorships with one inflated ego having untrammalled power. People who think dictatorships are going to be better run than genuine democracies have a superficial grasp of human nature and political realities.