Putin's Dilemma

Can he agree a truce? On what terms?

US and Ukrainian delegations meet in Jeddah yesterday to negotiate a proposed ceasefire (photo by Saul Loeb via Getty Images)

In my post of 4 March I noted that one reason for President Trump’s anger against President Zelensky was that he believed that the Ukrainian president had no interest in a ceasefire but just wanted to use American support to keep on fighting. I noted:

‘It is part of the craziness of this situation that the side with least interest in a ceasefire is the Russians, as they have pointed out at every opportunity. Russian wants to pin down the peace deal before agreeing a ceasefire.’

I continued:

‘This is why it makes so much sense for Zelensky to agree an immediate truce, whatever his misgivings, because that puts the question back to Putin.’

Well now we will find out, because this is what happened at yesterday’s talks between the American and Ukrainian teams at Jeddah.

The US proposed, and Ukraine accepted, that there should be an ‘immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire that will be extendable by mutual agreement of both parties, and is subject to acceptance and implementation by Russia.’ The Ukrainians had suggested a more partial ceasefire covering just the air and maritime domains, which the Russians had already rejected, but this proposal goes further and covers the front-lines on the ground as well.

The two sides also agreed the truce would be an opportunity to carve out the details of a longer-term peace settlement, aspects of which were also discussed in Jeddah. At this point questions of territorial control and security guarantees would be raised.

After welcoming Ukraine’s commitment ‘to stop shooting and start talking,’ Secretary of State Rubio acknowledged that this proposal has yet to be put to the Russians. ‘The ball is in the [Russians'] court', he observed, adding that if they don’t agree ‘we'll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.’

To add to the good news for Ukraine, US military and intelligence support will now resume.

How much of a problem does this pose for Russia? None of this was coordinated with Moscow and this is clearly not Putin’s preferred approach. He wants to conclude negotiations with a ceasefire and not start there. Russia has sought to engage the US on the big picture – the ‘root causes’ – which it has identified as all developments involving NATO’s expansion and Ukraine’s westward tilt over this decade. It has not moved away from its demands for a peace settlement with Ukraine as set out in June 2024. It requires Ukrainian forces to evacuate the areas they still control in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as well as ‘denazification,’ (regime change), ‘neutralization’ (no NATO) and ‘demilitarization’ (disarmament).

The Russian response thus far has been guarded. According to Maria Zakharova of the Foreign Ministry, ‘The shaping of the position of the Russian Federation does not take place abroad due to some agreements or efforts of some parties.’ The Russian response will come when they have been briefed on the Jeddah talks. It will not be a simple matter for Russia to reject the US proposal but they might. In this post I want to highlight four issues that will influence the assessments now going on in the Kremlin. First, the state of the war, second, the problem of the occupied territories, third, the attitude taken by President Trump, and lastly whether there is a potential way forward for Russia that could at least avoid a full rejection of the US proposal without quite endorsing it.