Seen from the Continent: Most other parliaments have a round shape, where the parties are placed according to right-left views. In the House of Commons, members sit on benches along the length of the building. They glare at the opponents from the only other party, and they cannot imagine politics without just one opponent.
If you want to reform the electoral system you must start by rebuilding the House of Commons. Changes to the election rules must be adopted by the House of Commons, and it will never happen with Parliament in its present form.
Really glad you got into this, Sam. There’s not nearly enough serious exploration of European politics in UK media/political analysis, so I really appreciate you treating it on its own terms and doing the research yourself first-hand. I saw your Twitter post about the travails of using Google translate for Italian and I’ve experienced the same myself on many occasions! Meloni is always Melons and Conte is always the Count in headlines.
I think the Meloni model looks much more attractive than it is to Anglo-populists partly for the reasons you outlined, but also because the opposition is useless, something you kind of alluded to. As you might know, Italy has a parallel voting system where in both houses of parliament most of the seats are first-past-the-post. This makes winning, or even looking like a government-in-waiting, a matter of being able to form a coalition with like-minded parties. The right have been a lot better at doing this than the centre-left, so they look more “serious”.
Because of this division, the opposition spend as much time fighting amongst themselves as they do attacking the government. That’s basically given Meloni a free pass. Schlein has to deal with a lot of internal party management stuff too, and I’m not sure she’s capable of going from being an activist to actually running a full-on political party.
But the economic divide you talk about in the UK also exists in the Italian government, and I see this being a bigger issue down the line. Italy has a lot of small businesses, and with lots of small businesses comes a large petty bourgeoisie. Those people are a key source of support for the right, and their interests on economic policy are often sharply opposed to the economic populists.
There was a lot of internal opposition, especially from Forza Italia, Berlusconi’s old party, to the bank windfall tax. I think they’ve also made a lot of essentially undeliverable promises on tax cuts, and will have to decide whether they favour businesses and the self-employed or workers when they divvy up the spoils, if there are any spoils to be divvied up.
This may not be a problem if those voters are more frightened of Schlein and the Five Star movement than they are upset about anything the government does. Berlusconi accrued a lot of political capital by stoking fears of the left while he was in charge. But it will be a problem for them, especially since as you say the Italian government has very limited fiscal resources.
Not sure it's correct to describe the late-stage capitalist plutocrats who own the media and fund the Right as 'economic liberals'. Many are very successful monopolists and rent seekers - tech bros, pharma bros, telecoms moguls. Maybe the Kochs and Harlan Crow are economic liberals if that means opposing state action to counter externalities imposed by fossil fuels?
Sam, your comparison between the Tories and the Meloni coalition in Italy is really informative and goes as much to reality as it does to performative art. In the latter example, face reality as it is and make changes as necessary, but for performative purposes to give the base red meat publicize and sell the core ideas that got Meloni elected. In some ways it is a bait and switch, but it is effective.
Sunak has lasted longer than a head of lettuce (Truss) but you are right in that it is hard to be populist and be controlled by the large economic interests that drive inequality. From my distant observation across the pond, at the the UK electorate are marginally smarter to pick up in this, but for Brexit. This stands in sharp contrast to the US where the GOP can play cultural wars for real and do the bait and switch on the base and they will not only miss it, but will ask for more.
He was a metals trader on the LME and most definitely not a stockbroker. Completely different things. A small but telling inaccuracy repeating received but wholly inaccurate wisdom.
Isn't the only real difference between a metals trader on the LME and a stockbroker that one is trading (theoretical) tangibles, and the other is trading intangibles? It's an inaccuracy, sure, but in the same broad environment.
No. One brokers the sale of equites to clients and institutions and the other trades metals for profit using a variety of instruments. Completely different.
No not necessarily a trader could be prop ie their own PnL within an investment institution OR trading on behalf of clients and institutions - they will take positions and hedge those using derivatives
So a metals trader acting on their own behalf would be like an individual day (stocks) trader, except one deals in tangibles and the other in intangibles?
One point I disagree with though - as a reader of the Torygraph among many other papers - is that "The Telegraph, and the Tory membership, are [not happy] with any challenge to the principles of liberal market economics."
As a liberal pro-free-market person myself, I think its principles need a lot more defending than they get from the Torygraph/Tories in general. Looking for instance at the housing sector... the Tories have banned tenant fees, are proposing to ban letting to EPC D/E/etc properties, and are conducting a mafia-style shakedown of the construction companies. Over in the energy sector, they are proposing to ban combustion engines and fossil-powered boilers, and have imposed 'green crap' tax/surcharges on renewable energy. In education, they are proposing to put university caps back in place.
Their only economic policy of note is lower taxes - particularly inheritance taxes on the wealthy. These tax cuts all to be unfunded, or accompanied by 'reducing unspecified government waste' as they support measures (e.g. the triple lock) which boost government spending.
This is a very long way from liberal market economics. And in a sad irony, for a better guide to liberal market economics a dispassionate (i.e. not Torygraph) observer would do better to look at almost all of the EU countries.
I'm not even sure Georgia Melloni is economically progressive so much as she is deeply unserious about public finances. Seems like she has more of a "denial of economic reality" approach that can affect either extreme. (Cf Liz Truss on the right, but also examples like François Mitterand or the Militant-run Liverpool Council on the radical left.)
Agree that the work visa situation in the UK will likely not play out well in the long run. Both the left and the right vastly oversimplify the complexities of immigration policy.
As to "woke" policies, and critiques of "woke" policies by the right, this article glosses over most of the issues. Yes, it is not good that Italy is banning the rights of lesbians. But a close reading of authors such as Hadley Freeman, Victoria Smith, John Gray, Suzanne Moore, and Kathleen Stock would indicate that there are many sublimated voices on the "left" who have critiqued "wokeness" and who are concerned about fundamental rights of many people. Until recently, these voices have been crushed under the veil of "wokeness". It is very much not just an issue of a few school polices and not only those on the "right" who are concerned about these issues.
It also is a good article highlighting the economic void at the centre of pretty all right wing politics at the moment. I sadly don’t think the Labour Party have much more of a vision yet (adding yet extremely hopefully).
I’m here for all the Matt Goodwin shit talking - he is an ideologue pushing a narrative with complete disregard for the people he purports to represent. He lost my interest as a person to listen to when he disregarded the influence of the media in Road to Somewhere as having a role in shaping views on immigration in the British populace.
Media ownership reform could be the way to transform our politics. Make it a requirement to be a UK citizen and tax payer to own newspapers , radio, tv and the political landscape could look very different
My understanding of modern history is the idea or logic that our Politicals (democratic Republics) were created in order to counter or restrain the contradictions of anarchy and hierarchy. The radical Right represent these contradictions of anarchy and hierarchy; and desire power, recognition, and aggression. Our modern political ideas realize anarchy and hierarchy must be restrained to be secure and to secure individual freedom. Individual freedom is fundamental to the idea of restraining power. The idea of restraining power also realizes the responsible balance of power between anarchy and hierarchy: security. Liberal Republicanism is an idea to create responsible but limited power for security, including individual freedom.
Great books: Liberalism in Dark Times, Joshua Cherniss; Bounding Power: Republican Security Theory, Daniel Duedney.
I don't know enough about European (or British) politics to evaluate this analysis but it had a lot of important facts that I wasn't aware of. The difference between cultural conservativism/economic liberalism in Anglo vs Continental conservatism is something I was something I hadn't heard of before and smacks of the truth. Certainly I can't imagine the Australian, British or American conservatism even considering the economic policies that Meloni has. All in all a good read.
Interesting and I would agree the barriers for a right-wing populist party are incredibly high and likely insurmountable. The only vehicle to do this is the Tories under different leadership and post a purge of ‘wets’. The mistake is on economics - there is at some point a different economic settlement coming and it’s a toss up if it goes left or right.
The ‘liberal economics’ in the article is basically the Brownite/treasury economic consensus that has existed in the UK since c.1997. Higher taxes, high regulation, EU integration (entire establishment including Tories opposed Brexit), high barriers to capital spending e.g. infrastructure and consequently poor economic growth and productivity growth. The consensus believes high immigration is its main economic lever and it is very far from clear that is accurate.
Has this economic consensus worked? I would kindly suggest not. It will break at some point either left or right.
I would speculate that Prof. Goodwin is angling for a place as the "intellectual motor" of some future right-wing/populist grouping. I'm not sure he's very bothered whether it's in a wing of the Tories or in some new UKIP-esque affair, possibly born out of a reformed electoral system. I doubt it will include Farage, in any case -- what political grouping has room for two egos of that size? If they do get together, it won't last.
Seen from the Continent: Most other parliaments have a round shape, where the parties are placed according to right-left views. In the House of Commons, members sit on benches along the length of the building. They glare at the opponents from the only other party, and they cannot imagine politics without just one opponent.
If you want to reform the electoral system you must start by rebuilding the House of Commons. Changes to the election rules must be adopted by the House of Commons, and it will never happen with Parliament in its present form.
Really glad you got into this, Sam. There’s not nearly enough serious exploration of European politics in UK media/political analysis, so I really appreciate you treating it on its own terms and doing the research yourself first-hand. I saw your Twitter post about the travails of using Google translate for Italian and I’ve experienced the same myself on many occasions! Meloni is always Melons and Conte is always the Count in headlines.
I think the Meloni model looks much more attractive than it is to Anglo-populists partly for the reasons you outlined, but also because the opposition is useless, something you kind of alluded to. As you might know, Italy has a parallel voting system where in both houses of parliament most of the seats are first-past-the-post. This makes winning, or even looking like a government-in-waiting, a matter of being able to form a coalition with like-minded parties. The right have been a lot better at doing this than the centre-left, so they look more “serious”.
Because of this division, the opposition spend as much time fighting amongst themselves as they do attacking the government. That’s basically given Meloni a free pass. Schlein has to deal with a lot of internal party management stuff too, and I’m not sure she’s capable of going from being an activist to actually running a full-on political party.
But the economic divide you talk about in the UK also exists in the Italian government, and I see this being a bigger issue down the line. Italy has a lot of small businesses, and with lots of small businesses comes a large petty bourgeoisie. Those people are a key source of support for the right, and their interests on economic policy are often sharply opposed to the economic populists.
There was a lot of internal opposition, especially from Forza Italia, Berlusconi’s old party, to the bank windfall tax. I think they’ve also made a lot of essentially undeliverable promises on tax cuts, and will have to decide whether they favour businesses and the self-employed or workers when they divvy up the spoils, if there are any spoils to be divvied up.
This may not be a problem if those voters are more frightened of Schlein and the Five Star movement than they are upset about anything the government does. Berlusconi accrued a lot of political capital by stoking fears of the left while he was in charge. But it will be a problem for them, especially since as you say the Italian government has very limited fiscal resources.
Not sure it's correct to describe the late-stage capitalist plutocrats who own the media and fund the Right as 'economic liberals'. Many are very successful monopolists and rent seekers - tech bros, pharma bros, telecoms moguls. Maybe the Kochs and Harlan Crow are economic liberals if that means opposing state action to counter externalities imposed by fossil fuels?
Sam, your comparison between the Tories and the Meloni coalition in Italy is really informative and goes as much to reality as it does to performative art. In the latter example, face reality as it is and make changes as necessary, but for performative purposes to give the base red meat publicize and sell the core ideas that got Meloni elected. In some ways it is a bait and switch, but it is effective.
Sunak has lasted longer than a head of lettuce (Truss) but you are right in that it is hard to be populist and be controlled by the large economic interests that drive inequality. From my distant observation across the pond, at the the UK electorate are marginally smarter to pick up in this, but for Brexit. This stands in sharp contrast to the US where the GOP can play cultural wars for real and do the bait and switch on the base and they will not only miss it, but will ask for more.
Small point I know but wasn’t Farage a commodities trader rather than stockbroker?
He was a metals trader on the LME and most definitely not a stockbroker. Completely different things. A small but telling inaccuracy repeating received but wholly inaccurate wisdom.
Isn't the only real difference between a metals trader on the LME and a stockbroker that one is trading (theoretical) tangibles, and the other is trading intangibles? It's an inaccuracy, sure, but in the same broad environment.
No. One brokers the sale of equites to clients and institutions and the other trades metals for profit using a variety of instruments. Completely different.
Metal traders only do it in their own right, never for clients and institutions, never using a variety of instruments such as futures?
No not necessarily a trader could be prop ie their own PnL within an investment institution OR trading on behalf of clients and institutions - they will take positions and hedge those using derivatives
So a metals trader acting on their own behalf would be like an individual day (stocks) trader, except one deals in tangibles and the other in intangibles?
Meloni seems to be using her feminine charms successfully. I’ll leave it at that. Very interesting piece thank you.
An excellent piece - thank you for it.
One point I disagree with though - as a reader of the Torygraph among many other papers - is that "The Telegraph, and the Tory membership, are [not happy] with any challenge to the principles of liberal market economics."
As a liberal pro-free-market person myself, I think its principles need a lot more defending than they get from the Torygraph/Tories in general. Looking for instance at the housing sector... the Tories have banned tenant fees, are proposing to ban letting to EPC D/E/etc properties, and are conducting a mafia-style shakedown of the construction companies. Over in the energy sector, they are proposing to ban combustion engines and fossil-powered boilers, and have imposed 'green crap' tax/surcharges on renewable energy. In education, they are proposing to put university caps back in place.
Their only economic policy of note is lower taxes - particularly inheritance taxes on the wealthy. These tax cuts all to be unfunded, or accompanied by 'reducing unspecified government waste' as they support measures (e.g. the triple lock) which boost government spending.
This is a very long way from liberal market economics. And in a sad irony, for a better guide to liberal market economics a dispassionate (i.e. not Torygraph) observer would do better to look at almost all of the EU countries.
Basically economically the ‘liberal consensus’ Tories are to the left of first term New Labour. I and many others regard them basically as socialists
I'm not even sure Georgia Melloni is economically progressive so much as she is deeply unserious about public finances. Seems like she has more of a "denial of economic reality" approach that can affect either extreme. (Cf Liz Truss on the right, but also examples like François Mitterand or the Militant-run Liverpool Council on the radical left.)
Agree that the work visa situation in the UK will likely not play out well in the long run. Both the left and the right vastly oversimplify the complexities of immigration policy.
As to "woke" policies, and critiques of "woke" policies by the right, this article glosses over most of the issues. Yes, it is not good that Italy is banning the rights of lesbians. But a close reading of authors such as Hadley Freeman, Victoria Smith, John Gray, Suzanne Moore, and Kathleen Stock would indicate that there are many sublimated voices on the "left" who have critiqued "wokeness" and who are concerned about fundamental rights of many people. Until recently, these voices have been crushed under the veil of "wokeness". It is very much not just an issue of a few school polices and not only those on the "right" who are concerned about these issues.
It also is a good article highlighting the economic void at the centre of pretty all right wing politics at the moment. I sadly don’t think the Labour Party have much more of a vision yet (adding yet extremely hopefully).
I’m here for all the Matt Goodwin shit talking - he is an ideologue pushing a narrative with complete disregard for the people he purports to represent. He lost my interest as a person to listen to when he disregarded the influence of the media in Road to Somewhere as having a role in shaping views on immigration in the British populace.
Media ownership reform could be the way to transform our politics. Make it a requirement to be a UK citizen and tax payer to own newspapers , radio, tv and the political landscape could look very different
My understanding of modern history is the idea or logic that our Politicals (democratic Republics) were created in order to counter or restrain the contradictions of anarchy and hierarchy. The radical Right represent these contradictions of anarchy and hierarchy; and desire power, recognition, and aggression. Our modern political ideas realize anarchy and hierarchy must be restrained to be secure and to secure individual freedom. Individual freedom is fundamental to the idea of restraining power. The idea of restraining power also realizes the responsible balance of power between anarchy and hierarchy: security. Liberal Republicanism is an idea to create responsible but limited power for security, including individual freedom.
Great books: Liberalism in Dark Times, Joshua Cherniss; Bounding Power: Republican Security Theory, Daniel Duedney.
My Substack series trying to understand the decision to invade Iraq in 2003: https://nathanboies.substack.com/p/power-primacy-internationalism-the?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
I don't know enough about European (or British) politics to evaluate this analysis but it had a lot of important facts that I wasn't aware of. The difference between cultural conservativism/economic liberalism in Anglo vs Continental conservatism is something I was something I hadn't heard of before and smacks of the truth. Certainly I can't imagine the Australian, British or American conservatism even considering the economic policies that Meloni has. All in all a good read.
Interesting and I would agree the barriers for a right-wing populist party are incredibly high and likely insurmountable. The only vehicle to do this is the Tories under different leadership and post a purge of ‘wets’. The mistake is on economics - there is at some point a different economic settlement coming and it’s a toss up if it goes left or right.
The ‘liberal economics’ in the article is basically the Brownite/treasury economic consensus that has existed in the UK since c.1997. Higher taxes, high regulation, EU integration (entire establishment including Tories opposed Brexit), high barriers to capital spending e.g. infrastructure and consequently poor economic growth and productivity growth. The consensus believes high immigration is its main economic lever and it is very far from clear that is accurate.
Has this economic consensus worked? I would kindly suggest not. It will break at some point either left or right.
I would speculate that Prof. Goodwin is angling for a place as the "intellectual motor" of some future right-wing/populist grouping. I'm not sure he's very bothered whether it's in a wing of the Tories or in some new UKIP-esque affair, possibly born out of a reformed electoral system. I doubt it will include Farage, in any case -- what political grouping has room for two egos of that size? If they do get together, it won't last.