A woman mourns at the cemetery in Irpin, Ukraine, on the first anniversary of the war A natural part of the commentary surrounding the first anniversary of the start of the Russo-Ukraine War was speculation about whether it will have concluded by the time of the second or even third anniversaries. On 24 February 2024 will the air raid sirens still be sounding in Kyiv? Will NATO leaders still be willing and able to keep up the flow of arms and ammunition to Ukraine? Will Russia still assume an inexhaustible supply of men to send to the front, and will Vladimir Putin still be making interminable speeches blaming the West for an indefinite war?
Unless Putin is deposed, and I see no likelihood of that, given that he is KGB and has control over the same, renamed FSB.
Putin is a "reincarnation of Stalin" he has an infinite supply of humans to throw into the meat grinder, as Stalin did at Moscow and Stalingrad. This supply of humans absorbs Ukrainian ammunition, until they run out of ammunition.
Either Ukraine folds and Russia absorbs it, after liquidating all of the patriots and combatants, or NATO gets involved, sooner rather than later, because if it doesn't stop Putin now, then it will have another and bigger aggression on it's hands, as Putin or Russia, falls back, ramps up it's armament industry to WWII levels, refits, retrains, corrects then takes on the rest of the former Soviet empire.
Moldova certainly next with the Soviet Enclave of Transnistrra, Lithuania to close the Suwalki Gap that separates Kaliningrad from Belarus.
It is 1938 all over again. Cave to the threat of a tyrant and you will have the war that you fear, only worse than it would be if you had stopped him when he was just getting started.
I wonder if Prigozhin's very graphic rant about what's happening to Russian fighters, will have the opposite effect to what he intends if it does start circulating widely. Putin is trying to make it sound as though everything is going according to plan.
Assuming Prigozhin has some credibility with the Russian population in general, this video could be a wakeup call and make them less likely to support the Special Military Operation.
Of course, mere lack of public support won't do anything on its own.
The real joker in the pack is the durability of America's commitment to help keeping Ukraine up to the fight. This is essential but by no means a given regardless of what the current Administration in Washington professes. American fickleness is legendary and certainly not predictable or necessarily durable beyond November 2024. This is ample incentive to keep Russia going in the direction it has been at least till the outcome of the next American election is known. The self-imposed weakness of the current Attorney General creates a major pall and uncertainty over the political landscape in America, as the most serious political criminality is unlikely to be apprehended in good time. I firmly believe this must be one of President Zelenskyy's worst nightmares.
The usual well-informed and measured analysis by Prof Freedman, always worth reading, and circulating to friends.
In real time we are watching what happens when a ruthless kleptocratic tyrant runs wild, and acts out his destructive fantasies to the cost of his own countrymen as well as that of another country, and to a lesser degree the costs incurred throughout the world as a result of a gratuitous invasion.
Well it seems the next two steps are clear. Step one is the Ukrainian dealing with this Russian offensive if that is the word for it. It seems pretty clear it's not going to achieve anything but the Ukrainians have to inflict as heavy casualties as possible while doing what it can to minimize its own. The second phase is seeing how the next Ukrainian offensive goes. That will be the big issue because at the moment we don't know how successful it could be. Anything from a smashing success to a failure seems possible. At the end of that we'll have a better idea of the future of this war. That said the certainty seems to be that the Ukrainians are not going to give up and it's very hard to see the Russians learning to do effective offensives that would achieve it's strategic aims - even the modest one of capturing all of the Donbass.
Prof Stephen Kotkin has said that Putin still seems complacent and a shock to him would be useful.
He also said in an attritional phase of the war, Russia is likely to outproduce Ukraine. The west is not ramping up war production and this would take some time, if desirable.
He feels incorporating Ukraine into the EU in a reasonable timescale is a victory for Ukraine.
Ukraine will prevail because, at stake, is the very existence of our nation. Russia can declare it feel threatened, but it will continue to exist as a nation. Regardless of what the dictator says, the existential character of this conflict is ours and not his. And many Ukrainians are ceasing to exist themselves to ensure existence to their fellow countrymen.
Unless Putin is deposed, and I see no likelihood of that, given that he is KGB and has control over the same, renamed FSB.
Putin is a "reincarnation of Stalin" he has an infinite supply of humans to throw into the meat grinder, as Stalin did at Moscow and Stalingrad. This supply of humans absorbs Ukrainian ammunition, until they run out of ammunition.
Either Ukraine folds and Russia absorbs it, after liquidating all of the patriots and combatants, or NATO gets involved, sooner rather than later, because if it doesn't stop Putin now, then it will have another and bigger aggression on it's hands, as Putin or Russia, falls back, ramps up it's armament industry to WWII levels, refits, retrains, corrects then takes on the rest of the former Soviet empire.
Moldova certainly next with the Soviet Enclave of Transnistrra, Lithuania to close the Suwalki Gap that separates Kaliningrad from Belarus.
It is 1938 all over again. Cave to the threat of a tyrant and you will have the war that you fear, only worse than it would be if you had stopped him when he was just getting started.
I wonder if Prigozhin's very graphic rant about what's happening to Russian fighters, will have the opposite effect to what he intends if it does start circulating widely. Putin is trying to make it sound as though everything is going according to plan.
Assuming Prigozhin has some credibility with the Russian population in general, this video could be a wakeup call and make them less likely to support the Special Military Operation.
Of course, mere lack of public support won't do anything on its own.
The real joker in the pack is the durability of America's commitment to help keeping Ukraine up to the fight. This is essential but by no means a given regardless of what the current Administration in Washington professes. American fickleness is legendary and certainly not predictable or necessarily durable beyond November 2024. This is ample incentive to keep Russia going in the direction it has been at least till the outcome of the next American election is known. The self-imposed weakness of the current Attorney General creates a major pall and uncertainty over the political landscape in America, as the most serious political criminality is unlikely to be apprehended in good time. I firmly believe this must be one of President Zelenskyy's worst nightmares.
The usual well-informed and measured analysis by Prof Freedman, always worth reading, and circulating to friends.
In real time we are watching what happens when a ruthless kleptocratic tyrant runs wild, and acts out his destructive fantasies to the cost of his own countrymen as well as that of another country, and to a lesser degree the costs incurred throughout the world as a result of a gratuitous invasion.
Well it seems the next two steps are clear. Step one is the Ukrainian dealing with this Russian offensive if that is the word for it. It seems pretty clear it's not going to achieve anything but the Ukrainians have to inflict as heavy casualties as possible while doing what it can to minimize its own. The second phase is seeing how the next Ukrainian offensive goes. That will be the big issue because at the moment we don't know how successful it could be. Anything from a smashing success to a failure seems possible. At the end of that we'll have a better idea of the future of this war. That said the certainty seems to be that the Ukrainians are not going to give up and it's very hard to see the Russians learning to do effective offensives that would achieve it's strategic aims - even the modest one of capturing all of the Donbass.
Excellent! It's why I subscibe.
Very insightful as always.
Prof Stephen Kotkin has said that Putin still seems complacent and a shock to him would be useful.
He also said in an attritional phase of the war, Russia is likely to outproduce Ukraine. The west is not ramping up war production and this would take some time, if desirable.
He feels incorporating Ukraine into the EU in a reasonable timescale is a victory for Ukraine.
Nice article. What are your thoughts, Lawrence, on the probability of a successful Ukrainian offensive that cuts the land bridge? Metaculus & Insight give the odds around 31-35%. https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-september-30th-2023
Ukraine will prevail because, at stake, is the very existence of our nation. Russia can declare it feel threatened, but it will continue to exist as a nation. Regardless of what the dictator says, the existential character of this conflict is ours and not his. And many Ukrainians are ceasing to exist themselves to ensure existence to their fellow countrymen.
You response is a non sequitur.
Could you go through your post again, and attach some probabilities? At the moment, it is difficult to see what you think is most likely to happen.