This was political analysis as it should be done. Raising above the soap-opera of day to day political theatre and drawing attention to important long term trends with heaps of reporting of actual facts albeit the facts come from a social survey.
Looking at US and UK politics from afar (Australia) it seems that the conservatives are making the same mistake of paying lots of attention to their loud and passionate extreme members and forgotten that these valued supporters may be a very long way from the swinging voters in the middle who actually decide elections. I know the British Labour made the same mistake with Corbyn and his acolytes but they appear to have learned their lesson from a terrible electoral defeat. Somehow this realization doesn’t seem to be dawning on the culture warriors of the right.
Finally I think there is no question of the Conservatives winning over young voters by ditching Brexit. This will take a generation or to put it crudely the wholesale exiting of large numbers of conservative party members (ie not just the MPs) aged over 60 from the electoral rolls.
Thank you for including your technical note, explaining what the BSA's left-right indicator is made up of. I'll be honest, I don't think these are good questions, they feel like they were drawn up by a left-winger who fails the ideological Turing test (that is, a left-winger who doesn't understand how right-wingers think). The questions seemingly measure up sincere left-wing beliefs against a left-winger's straw-man version of what right-wingers believe - no surprise then that the BSA consistently finds British voters leaning well to the left (as in, less than 50 on a 0-to-100 scale), even as they elect endless Conservative governments.
I would prefer to have seen, as well as the statements listed, some "pro-right" statements. For example:
"Individuals spend their money more wisely than governments"
"Reducing taxes promotes economic growth"
"Big businesses are wealth creators"
Then we might have had a more accurate picture of British voters' economic leaning. As it is, the study asks "is inequality good?", find that Brits don't think it is, and concludes that we're a nation of socialists, even though conservatives don't think that inequality is a good thing either.
It does make me wonder if Rishi Sunak is a subscriber; though I despise his recent actions because I think they are about votes not convictions, it’s clear to see his messaging is trying to communicate to the poor and low waged citizens that he understands the pressures facing them financially. I think he’s picked the wrong things to demonstrate that, but he’s obviously trying…
The sudden drop in the age gap in party support around 1986 was triggered by a very small (I have a recollection of 50p) increase in the state pension. I helped the Conservative candidate at the Ryedale by election in May 1986 when the Alliance (Liberal) candidate overturned a Conservative majority of 16,000. I can still recall the venom on the doorstep from pensioners who felt cheated. The same day the Conservatives just held West Derbyshire.
One reason for the current very large age gap is that older voters have reasons to be grateful to Margaret Thatcher. Her "right to buy" programme gave very large numbers a huge benefit - their status and standing was changed and then when as many reached retirement they came to sell the houses they had bought at a hefty discount they could afford retirement bungalows on the coast. Somebody aged around 40 in 1985 - the mid point of the Thatcher premiership - will be nearly 80 today. Many who benefitted will be in their 90s.
During the eighties, a large number of those in their twenties and thirties also benefitted from increased social mobility and the ability to buy a flat or house. Somebody who was 22 in 1980 (i.e. just graduated) will be 65 today. Somebody who was 25 so just qualified as a solicitor or accountant will be 68 today.
The problem for the Conservative Party is that the Grim Reaper is culling its support. Of course a proportion of those aged over 65 who voted Labour and LibDem in 2019 are also being culled, but the loss to Labour and to a certain extent the LibDems is offset by new voters coming onto the roll. I have done some rough calculations as to the likely impact on the Conservative vote in England and Wales and I think that the Grim Reaper has culled the Conservative majority in over a dozen seats with a further batch going by 2024 if Sunak clings on to the bitter end, taking the losses up to about 20. This is before anyone has stayed at home or switched to another party.
The erosion of the Conservative vote shown in the opinion polls over the last year is obviously much greater than the Grim Reaper's cull. However the cull is continuing month by month so for the Conservative share of the vote to increase the party needs to win back a substantial number of abstainers and those who have switched - its vote share will continue to fall if it does not offset the loss to the Grim Reaper.
Sam, as somebody living in the US I find this analysis hopeful yet a bit shocking. Hopeful in that there is humanity left in the heart of the English speaking world. Shocking in that the Tories compared to the Republicans in the US look like what they may call “looney lefties” here.
Economically, it seems the British people are looking at government the same way as Paul Krugman: a large insurance company with an army! The risk aversion and fairness you describe is a far cry from how those are viewed in the US (and I fear it is influencing Canada in many places). “How dare we help anybody! Must be lazy, their own fault. All success is embodied in those like Musk who “did it on their own.”” It is a view of of fairness, economics as a bad Ayn Rand novel not in distinct from Thatcher.
I only wish we had a similar longitudinal survey like that being done here in the US. It would show that most people likely are “left leaning” as well if they were asked.
This was political analysis as it should be done. Raising above the soap-opera of day to day political theatre and drawing attention to important long term trends with heaps of reporting of actual facts albeit the facts come from a social survey.
Looking at US and UK politics from afar (Australia) it seems that the conservatives are making the same mistake of paying lots of attention to their loud and passionate extreme members and forgotten that these valued supporters may be a very long way from the swinging voters in the middle who actually decide elections. I know the British Labour made the same mistake with Corbyn and his acolytes but they appear to have learned their lesson from a terrible electoral defeat. Somehow this realization doesn’t seem to be dawning on the culture warriors of the right.
Finally I think there is no question of the Conservatives winning over young voters by ditching Brexit. This will take a generation or to put it crudely the wholesale exiting of large numbers of conservative party members (ie not just the MPs) aged over 60 from the electoral rolls.
Thank you for including your technical note, explaining what the BSA's left-right indicator is made up of. I'll be honest, I don't think these are good questions, they feel like they were drawn up by a left-winger who fails the ideological Turing test (that is, a left-winger who doesn't understand how right-wingers think). The questions seemingly measure up sincere left-wing beliefs against a left-winger's straw-man version of what right-wingers believe - no surprise then that the BSA consistently finds British voters leaning well to the left (as in, less than 50 on a 0-to-100 scale), even as they elect endless Conservative governments.
I would prefer to have seen, as well as the statements listed, some "pro-right" statements. For example:
"Individuals spend their money more wisely than governments"
"Reducing taxes promotes economic growth"
"Big businesses are wealth creators"
Then we might have had a more accurate picture of British voters' economic leaning. As it is, the study asks "is inequality good?", find that Brits don't think it is, and concludes that we're a nation of socialists, even though conservatives don't think that inequality is a good thing either.
It does make me wonder if Rishi Sunak is a subscriber; though I despise his recent actions because I think they are about votes not convictions, it’s clear to see his messaging is trying to communicate to the poor and low waged citizens that he understands the pressures facing them financially. I think he’s picked the wrong things to demonstrate that, but he’s obviously trying…
The sudden drop in the age gap in party support around 1986 was triggered by a very small (I have a recollection of 50p) increase in the state pension. I helped the Conservative candidate at the Ryedale by election in May 1986 when the Alliance (Liberal) candidate overturned a Conservative majority of 16,000. I can still recall the venom on the doorstep from pensioners who felt cheated. The same day the Conservatives just held West Derbyshire.
One reason for the current very large age gap is that older voters have reasons to be grateful to Margaret Thatcher. Her "right to buy" programme gave very large numbers a huge benefit - their status and standing was changed and then when as many reached retirement they came to sell the houses they had bought at a hefty discount they could afford retirement bungalows on the coast. Somebody aged around 40 in 1985 - the mid point of the Thatcher premiership - will be nearly 80 today. Many who benefitted will be in their 90s.
During the eighties, a large number of those in their twenties and thirties also benefitted from increased social mobility and the ability to buy a flat or house. Somebody who was 22 in 1980 (i.e. just graduated) will be 65 today. Somebody who was 25 so just qualified as a solicitor or accountant will be 68 today.
The problem for the Conservative Party is that the Grim Reaper is culling its support. Of course a proportion of those aged over 65 who voted Labour and LibDem in 2019 are also being culled, but the loss to Labour and to a certain extent the LibDems is offset by new voters coming onto the roll. I have done some rough calculations as to the likely impact on the Conservative vote in England and Wales and I think that the Grim Reaper has culled the Conservative majority in over a dozen seats with a further batch going by 2024 if Sunak clings on to the bitter end, taking the losses up to about 20. This is before anyone has stayed at home or switched to another party.
The erosion of the Conservative vote shown in the opinion polls over the last year is obviously much greater than the Grim Reaper's cull. However the cull is continuing month by month so for the Conservative share of the vote to increase the party needs to win back a substantial number of abstainers and those who have switched - its vote share will continue to fall if it does not offset the loss to the Grim Reaper.
Sam, as somebody living in the US I find this analysis hopeful yet a bit shocking. Hopeful in that there is humanity left in the heart of the English speaking world. Shocking in that the Tories compared to the Republicans in the US look like what they may call “looney lefties” here.
Economically, it seems the British people are looking at government the same way as Paul Krugman: a large insurance company with an army! The risk aversion and fairness you describe is a far cry from how those are viewed in the US (and I fear it is influencing Canada in many places). “How dare we help anybody! Must be lazy, their own fault. All success is embodied in those like Musk who “did it on their own.”” It is a view of of fairness, economics as a bad Ayn Rand novel not in distinct from Thatcher.
I only wish we had a similar longitudinal survey like that being done here in the US. It would show that most people likely are “left leaning” as well if they were asked.