President Biden heads to the Middle East After the crisis caused by being caught by surprise on 7 October, Israel now faces a second crisis as its government struggles to find a strategy to meet its stated objective of pushing Hamas out of Gaza and rendering it incapable of further atrocities in the future. Even before the uproar surrounding the tragedy at the Al Ahli hospital, the dominant issue was becoming the dire situation in Gaza rather the security of Israel. To understand how we have reached this point – so quickly – we need to go back to the way that Israeli strategy was set before its implications were fully appreciated.
Thank you for this. It’s so difficult to find good, disinterested analysis of this horror. There was quite a lot in here that was new to me. Thank you.
I’m beginning to think that the one good thing that may come out of this disaster will be the end of Netanyahu as a political force and the return of Israel to sensible politics.
War and politics are closely linked- especially at the start. I believe the political imperative requires any Israeli politician to have a ground war with a view to killing or capturing as many as possible of the Hamas leadership – and armed militants/soldiers. The Israeli public’s thirst for vengeance may have cooled a tad but is still red hot, and as this piece points out, Netanyahu can’t afford to back down and look ineffectual. A hell of a lot of Palestinian civilians will die, be wounded and/or traumatized. I think Israeli public opinion will tolerate the lesser but still high Israeli casualties –at least for long enough for the ground assault to come to a ‘successful’ conclusion.
But what happens afterwards looks like a living hell for both sides, though the Palestinian part of it will be hotter. Sadly, it seems to me that the suffering of Palestinian civilians, while regretted, doesn’t seem to count for that much with the world, especially Israel’s backers. The history of the last 70 years seems to bear this out.
And the reaction you cite is exactly what Hamas wants! They do not care a whit about civilian lives in Gaza, and the more civilian casualties, the better. It is a feature of the Hamas strategy, not a bug. In this way they can turn global opinion against Israel as the oppressor more easily. Basically, Israel has allowed itself to be put into a no-win situation with all internal issues related to judicial reform designed to keep Netanyahu in power and out of trouble. I fear it is a cautionary tale for the US should Trump or somebody like him be elected in 2024.
I think LF is being optimistic. His own analysis rightly focuses on Hamas and its role in Gaza. But surely it will only be removed by force. Which only Israel can provide, and which would be precisely the disaster LF thinks should be avoided. The PA, even shorn of Abbas, would have a hard time establishing itself against Hamas. If only because it has been so ineffectual in defending the West Bank against Israeli settlement. The latter is another zone of strife where the incumbent population, as in Gaza, has no where to go but is continually squeezed and persecuted. There are no easy solutions except unsatisfactory prevarications, as has happened in the past. One day the balance of forces will go against Israel, and without powerful and influential friends, it will disappear.
Little noticed - Biden said he “had a long talk” - with Netanyahu presumably - that touched on “alternatives” to ground invasion.
10/18 press gaggle on way back from Israel.
Q Do you think there’s a lesser chance now that Israel won’t go in and — into Gaza and that can be averted?
THE PRESIDENT: We had a long talk about that and what alternatives there are. Our military is talking with their military about what the alternatives are, but I’m not going to go into that either.
I'm wondering if the attacks are not the result of years of abominable treatment of the Palestinian populis by Netanyahu. He now finds himself at odds with Hamas, which is embedded in and indistinguishable from the civilian population, much as the Viet Cong were in Vietnam. We know how well that turned out.
Thank you for this. It’s so difficult to find good, disinterested analysis of this horror. There was quite a lot in here that was new to me. Thank you.
I’m beginning to think that the one good thing that may come out of this disaster will be the end of Netanyahu as a political force and the return of Israel to sensible politics.
War and politics are closely linked- especially at the start. I believe the political imperative requires any Israeli politician to have a ground war with a view to killing or capturing as many as possible of the Hamas leadership – and armed militants/soldiers. The Israeli public’s thirst for vengeance may have cooled a tad but is still red hot, and as this piece points out, Netanyahu can’t afford to back down and look ineffectual. A hell of a lot of Palestinian civilians will die, be wounded and/or traumatized. I think Israeli public opinion will tolerate the lesser but still high Israeli casualties –at least for long enough for the ground assault to come to a ‘successful’ conclusion.
But what happens afterwards looks like a living hell for both sides, though the Palestinian part of it will be hotter. Sadly, it seems to me that the suffering of Palestinian civilians, while regretted, doesn’t seem to count for that much with the world, especially Israel’s backers. The history of the last 70 years seems to bear this out.
And the reaction you cite is exactly what Hamas wants! They do not care a whit about civilian lives in Gaza, and the more civilian casualties, the better. It is a feature of the Hamas strategy, not a bug. In this way they can turn global opinion against Israel as the oppressor more easily. Basically, Israel has allowed itself to be put into a no-win situation with all internal issues related to judicial reform designed to keep Netanyahu in power and out of trouble. I fear it is a cautionary tale for the US should Trump or somebody like him be elected in 2024.
I think LF is being optimistic. His own analysis rightly focuses on Hamas and its role in Gaza. But surely it will only be removed by force. Which only Israel can provide, and which would be precisely the disaster LF thinks should be avoided. The PA, even shorn of Abbas, would have a hard time establishing itself against Hamas. If only because it has been so ineffectual in defending the West Bank against Israeli settlement. The latter is another zone of strife where the incumbent population, as in Gaza, has no where to go but is continually squeezed and persecuted. There are no easy solutions except unsatisfactory prevarications, as has happened in the past. One day the balance of forces will go against Israel, and without powerful and influential friends, it will disappear.
Terrific piece. Maybe cold feet will prevail.
Little noticed - Biden said he “had a long talk” - with Netanyahu presumably - that touched on “alternatives” to ground invasion.
10/18 press gaggle on way back from Israel.
Q Do you think there’s a lesser chance now that Israel won’t go in and — into Gaza and that can be averted?
THE PRESIDENT: We had a long talk about that and what alternatives there are. Our military is talking with their military about what the alternatives are, but I’m not going to go into that either.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/10/18/press-gaggle-by-president-biden-and-nsc-coordinator-for-strategic-communications-john-kirby-ramstein-air-base-germany/
I'm wondering if the attacks are not the result of years of abominable treatment of the Palestinian populis by Netanyahu. He now finds himself at odds with Hamas, which is embedded in and indistinguishable from the civilian population, much as the Viet Cong were in Vietnam. We know how well that turned out.