Henry Kissinger at Davos this week where he argued Ukraine should give up territory to end the war. If there is a single question put to me more than any other, it is ‘How long will this war last?’ – even more so than ‘Who will win?’ In practice the two questions are unavoidably connected. Both questions have acquired some extra urgency as Ukraine acknowledges that it is engaged in tough fighting in the Donbas. Though this should not come as a surprise, given the effort that Russia has been putting into this phase of the war, it has challenged the developing expectation that Russia would move from one setback to another until at some point – possibly quite soon – they would be expelled from Ukraine altogether.
Another good article (no surprise). The surprising thing is everyone can see that Putin is not going to give up fighting this early but seems to think the Ukrainians can be persuaded to. It's dumb to even try - it'll just give the Ukrainians practice in not listening to you - hardly what 'realistic' diplomacy is supposed to be about.
I assume the Ukrainians are planning a 'long game'. They know they aren't going anywhere and have hopes Russia is made to bleed and suffer, on what is after all foreign soil, they may tire of it. Perhaps not in months but perhaps in years. The difference is that they have the tools and expertise to add to Russian attrition and misery with conventional forces rather than merely relying on an insurgency, which after all worked in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It also seems to me everyone over-estimates the impact of sanctions in the short term and under-estimate the their impact over the very long term. Occupying forces cost money and in the not too distant future Russia is going to be selling a lot less hydro-carbons - which was about all their economy was good at in the first place.
The facts are 1) that Russia currently controls and will control much of four oblasts and is taking steps to annex them formally, 2) that defense is easier than offense and Ukraine lacks the weaponry and manpower to launch sustained offensive operations against entrenched defensive positions 3) Neither the US or EU are going to give Ukraine the offensive weaponry (aircraft, cruise missiles (incl JASSM-type) required to retake Russian positions, which all border Russia and Crimea for resupply), and Russia has the means to punish Ukraine in Kiev and Odessa and Lviv for offensive operations in the East or South 4) Ukraine’s economy is a shambles, its ports are blockaded and Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on handouts from the West to continue its war effort, rebuild or even continue as an economic going concern. Agree that Ukraine will never accept annexation, but a ceasefire that delays the annexation process and opens the ports, returns Kherson and the north/west bank of the river in Kherson Oblast to Ukraine as well as any territory beyond Donetsk/Luhansk in the East (eg Kharkiv environs) might be doable and sensible by the end of summer. That outcome would be preferable to stalemate along Russia’s line of control and annexation behind it, which is the alternative.
As far as the history of partition (and/or population displacement) goes, surely you realize that the examples you cite (India/Pakistan and Israel) were merely the tail end of the post WWII process that saw borders redrawn or arbitrarily created in all of central and Eastern Europe (from Italy and Germany all the way to Ukraine, a good portion of which was Poland pre-war), all of the Middle East, much of Africa and a bit in Asia (Tibet, Singapore). It is a practice that goes back millennia.
The very essence of a sober and therefore diifficult assessment. I for one am happy to leave the 'safe to assume' predictions to the many, confident journos and other 'experts'...
I feel so guilty for having children. Are they going to experience a world war, if not with Russia then with China later down the line? I have woken up fast. This world we are in now is not the one I thought we lived in and I feel in despair.
Who will win? Professor, the points you make can surely lead us to a wider political engagement answering the question - Who is already losing? Perhaps time to challenge the geopolitics of land, state and nation and look at what disappeared after a few years as the 'sexy' multilateral trend - Rights Based Programming? Naive? Yes, as long as powerful men continue to manipulate the flow of information to perpetuate their elite status (within a precariat system), then we will continue to see people used and abused as egos tug at geography that, at the end of the day, comes back to the perpetuation of extractive economics.
Another good article (no surprise). The surprising thing is everyone can see that Putin is not going to give up fighting this early but seems to think the Ukrainians can be persuaded to. It's dumb to even try - it'll just give the Ukrainians practice in not listening to you - hardly what 'realistic' diplomacy is supposed to be about.
I assume the Ukrainians are planning a 'long game'. They know they aren't going anywhere and have hopes Russia is made to bleed and suffer, on what is after all foreign soil, they may tire of it. Perhaps not in months but perhaps in years. The difference is that they have the tools and expertise to add to Russian attrition and misery with conventional forces rather than merely relying on an insurgency, which after all worked in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It also seems to me everyone over-estimates the impact of sanctions in the short term and under-estimate the their impact over the very long term. Occupying forces cost money and in the not too distant future Russia is going to be selling a lot less hydro-carbons - which was about all their economy was good at in the first place.
The facts are 1) that Russia currently controls and will control much of four oblasts and is taking steps to annex them formally, 2) that defense is easier than offense and Ukraine lacks the weaponry and manpower to launch sustained offensive operations against entrenched defensive positions 3) Neither the US or EU are going to give Ukraine the offensive weaponry (aircraft, cruise missiles (incl JASSM-type) required to retake Russian positions, which all border Russia and Crimea for resupply), and Russia has the means to punish Ukraine in Kiev and Odessa and Lviv for offensive operations in the East or South 4) Ukraine’s economy is a shambles, its ports are blockaded and Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on handouts from the West to continue its war effort, rebuild or even continue as an economic going concern. Agree that Ukraine will never accept annexation, but a ceasefire that delays the annexation process and opens the ports, returns Kherson and the north/west bank of the river in Kherson Oblast to Ukraine as well as any territory beyond Donetsk/Luhansk in the East (eg Kharkiv environs) might be doable and sensible by the end of summer. That outcome would be preferable to stalemate along Russia’s line of control and annexation behind it, which is the alternative.
As far as the history of partition (and/or population displacement) goes, surely you realize that the examples you cite (India/Pakistan and Israel) were merely the tail end of the post WWII process that saw borders redrawn or arbitrarily created in all of central and Eastern Europe (from Italy and Germany all the way to Ukraine, a good portion of which was Poland pre-war), all of the Middle East, much of Africa and a bit in Asia (Tibet, Singapore). It is a practice that goes back millennia.
thank you
The very essence of a sober and therefore diifficult assessment. I for one am happy to leave the 'safe to assume' predictions to the many, confident journos and other 'experts'...
I feel so guilty for having children. Are they going to experience a world war, if not with Russia then with China later down the line? I have woken up fast. This world we are in now is not the one I thought we lived in and I feel in despair.
Who will win? Professor, the points you make can surely lead us to a wider political engagement answering the question - Who is already losing? Perhaps time to challenge the geopolitics of land, state and nation and look at what disappeared after a few years as the 'sexy' multilateral trend - Rights Based Programming? Naive? Yes, as long as powerful men continue to manipulate the flow of information to perpetuate their elite status (within a precariat system), then we will continue to see people used and abused as egos tug at geography that, at the end of the day, comes back to the perpetuation of extractive economics.