How long will the war last?

Henry Kissinger at Davos this week where he argued Ukraine should give up territory to end the war. If there is a single question put to me more than any other, it is ‘How long will this war last?’ – even more so than ‘Who will win?’ In practice the two questions are unavoidably connected. Both questions have acquired some extra urgency as Ukraine acknowledges that it is engaged in tough fighting in the Donbas. Though this should not come as a surprise, given the effort that Russia has been putting into this phase of the war, it has challenged the developing expectation that Russia would move from one setback to another until at some point – possibly quite soon – they would be expelled from Ukraine altogether.

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