The Ukrainian flag is raised again in Kupyansk “How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and well-equipped army can break and look for means of escape. This is not unusual in war. We saw it happen with the Afghan Army in the summer of 2021.
This is probably premature and based on anecdotal evidence, but I sense the beginnings of a "Lost Cause" narrative from some of these Russians. Like reports of Ukraine showing up suddenly in force with "NATO vehicles" (which looks even more odd to me as they adjectivize NATO in Russian - "NATOvskoe," etc.)
Like there's a narrative forming "Of course we lost, we never had a chance against the perfidious Western forces that surround Russia!"
Very much agree with your warning against extrapolating too far ahead. However brilliant Ukraine’s military achievements, this conflict will ultimately have to end with a political decision in Moscow. Whether that decision is taken by Putin or someone else is an interesting question, which might be affected by events on the battlefield. But at the moment he and his close circle seem to be firmly in control.
Very nice summary. People who have been paying attention to good sources are not surprised at Ukrainian success and Russian disarray - Putin only planned for a three day operation to seize half of Ukraine and install a puppet government (reminds me of Gilligan's Island - "a three hour tour.") But your essay also made me think of the moral decline in the west - we're going downhill "first gradually, then suddenly." In the 1970's, the left was all about "tolerance, tolerance, tolerance," and now it's totalitarian. I think that the reluctance of some on the right to want to help Ukraine is based on seeing all the bad actors during the pandemic (Macron, Trudeau, etc) rushing to help Ukraine must mean that we should be on the other side. Very sad.
“Just remember that when one man shows his fear of dying, it spreads to ten others, then to a hundred, and to a thousand others. Wait until you witness a “flood” of fleeing and frightened warriors. It is as unstoppable as lava from an erupting volcano.”
- Hlib Babych on Day 12 of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, March 8, 2022
It is true they are consolidating their resources in preparation for further attacks. It is also true that their forces have recovered from the first shock of battle, and they now fully understand where they are and what awaits them. They have begun to feel at home at war. Consequently, they proceed with their preparations and organization, fully intent on executing their attacks as planned. Their equipment is dug in and their artillery support is in place. However…
The people in their army are still the same. They are weak and demoralized, and under no illusion as to the real nature of the mission they’ve undertaken, or against whom they are fighting: there are no mythical “nazis” here; their fight is against the legitimate nation of Ukraine. They are further weakened by the cold weather and shortages of all manner of supplies. They are in the clutches of that sinking feeling of impending death. They fear the enemy, and that enemy is us.
They are now intimately familiar with the sight of fellow soldiers incinerated in their tanks, and have repeatedly seen the collection of the dead assembled on the pavement of the roads. They comprehend the fact that the country that sent them to Ukraine does not acknowledge their loss or intend on repatriating their bodies. The people in this army are the ones who are abandoning their military equipment and are running away, finding ways to surrender to us and crying for their mothers’ help when given a chance to phone home.
We face the same soldiers who faced us from the start. Their officers are compelling them to attack us against their better judgment. And when they get forced into battle, they are still as cowardly as ever. They are occupiers, yes, but they are demoralized and incapacitated by a visceral fear of death.
What’s more, the majority of the losses they have suffered to date have been their better trained troops, with adequate armaments. Neither training nor arms can be quickly replenished.
Let them make their battle preparations; a battle plan changes neither the character of the soldiers nor their resources. And remember, it is Russian military tradition that any and every battle plan goes south. The failure of their initial “blitzkrieg” is a prime example.
Their strength is their numbers. Just remember that when one man shows his fear of dying, it spreads to ten others, then to a hundred, and to a thousand others. Wait until you witness a “flood” of fleeing and frightened warriors. It is as unstoppable as lava from an erupting volcano.
Consequently, our objective is to restrain their advance; cause them as much trouble as possible. Hit them everywhere and simultaneously.
We have already experienced such success. They have no principles for which they are willing to die, but we have every reason to destroy them.
Remember that defence is always conducted under more favourable conditions than attack. Further, our resistance is being fought to save our very homes. Their attack is being executed in an unfamiliar land, full of uncertainties and painful surprises. We have been capitalizing on our advantages in battle for the past twelve days.
One more colossal counteract and we will send them reeling. They lack both essential materiel and interior motivation.
Let us hold together, make our preparations, and guard against moments of weakness. And do not be afraid. We’ve proven already that we can do all these things.
I am categorically convinced that our incredible general staff and command within the Armed Forces of Ukraine already have detailed plans for further action that they haven’t revealed. As of yet I have not seen particular elements of our capabilities in action, as they are awaiting their time and place.
Assume an attitude towards each new “storm” that properly accounts for the extent of the threat. Look at their successive attacks as one more opportunity to destroy the enemy.
We are waiting for those moments. We are preparing for them.
To paraphrase a familiar anecdote: they prepare to attack, we prepare to attack. In our present circumstances there is one new variable: any and each attack on their part will be used to our advantage.
All will unfold as it should. Glory to Ukraine Slava Ukraini.-
Hlib Babych, Ukrainian military author and veteran, a member of the Ukrainian territorial defence, who was Killed In Action July 28, 2022.
Translated from Ukrainian by Jeffrey D. Stephaniuk
I agree that it's too early to call for an end of the war. But I don't see the long term trends helpful for Russia at all. It started with not enough infantry and have had many tens of thousands of casualties. They are out numbered by the Ukrainians (who have fully mobilized) while the Russians depend on contract soldiers. I can't see them signing up for more fun in Ukraine, especially in winter. Russia doesn't want to fully mobilize and if it did it would take a lot of time to train them (and by whom and with what?). Russian morale is clearly inferior to the Ukrainians and the gulf will get bigger when news of this debacle seeps out. Inadequate and damaged logistics is a gift to the Ukrainians that will keep on giving (as will sanctions). Russia has a lot of men and equipment trapped in Kherson being slowly ground down. I can't see the populace in the Donesk and Lukansk republic fighting enthusiastically for Mother Russia-especially after so many of it's men have been forcibly conscripted and used as cannon fodder. I struggle to see how Russia can reverse these long term trends.
I keep thinking of the Michael Offensive in WW1 and how Ludendorff kept pushing forward into unexpected gaps and opportunities rather than sticking to the original plan and this then backfired and caused the rapid defeat that followed once the Allies started their counter-offensive
Is there any danger that something similar is happening with the Ukranians or are they maintaining their discipline and sticking to the plan?
Keep calm, Mr Bear. For what it's worth I think the Russians didn't plan for a war that lasted several days rather than being very poor planners. War is complex. But I don't see how that makes the Ukrainians inferior the Ukrainians. The first 200 days of this war suggests that the Ukrainians are at the very least as smart as the Russians. For starters they seem to know how to plan an effective offensive.
Ukraine's current successes invite comparison with the massive achievements of British forces under Haig in the months before 11 November 1918. However by that date the British Army had only reached the place where the Expeditionary Force had first engaged the Germans in 1914 - near Mons, well into Belgium. The Allies had expected to have to fight on from there but German morale collapsed -, as seems to be the case with Russian morale.
It may be that the Russian general staff will decide that the war is lost and that - as with the German General Staff in 1918 - the only way to save the Army is to agree to a ceasefire and armistice under cover of which the army can withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
That would raise a question about how much territory was to be evacuated - in 1918, the allies had made substantial advances into Alsace Lorraine so these territories were already lost. Today Ukraine is not in control of any of Crimea and other land seized in 2014.
It also raises a question about Putin. Although there are signs of dissent in Russia these do not threaten the regime. It is hard to see how peace can be made while he remains Russian dictator.
It is possible that he will be compelled by his generals to step down. In 1918, after the Kaiser had declined to lead a heroic assault in which he would certainly fall, he abdicated and fled to Holland - his first request on arriving at his new home was for "a nice strong cup of English tea". The Dutch government refused to hand him over so the British were unable to put him on trial for his part in the atrocities committed by German troops in Belgium and France, atrocities similar to those committed in Ukraine. A question arises as to whether somehow a signal should be sent that a comfortable retirement in exile would be acceptable.
If Putin seeks to cling to power, and the generals are not willing to remove (or kill) him, then it is hard to see how peace can be achieved. Even if every Russian soldier is driven out of Ukraine there will be a constant threat from over the border. Ukraine is not going to occupy Russia as the allies occupied Germany in 1945.
Perhaps the appropriate response to Mr Putin's message of good wishes to King Charles III would be to remind him that when Napoleon surrendered to a Royal Navy captain after Waterloo, he was not executed but provided with a retirement home on St Helena and offer to make similar arrangements for him?
Thanks for another heartening and enlightening account. I’m left wondering how Russian military intelligence failed in its most crucial duty- to foresee and forewarn of such an attack.
Let's not get too triumphant and begin predicting Putin's demise. He has shown time and again that he doesn't operate under the normal proclivities of being a humane leader. He's willing to unleash absolute genocide in service to his vision of himself at the head of a reclaimed Russian empire.
So what's his latest move as his troops get routed from Kharkiv? He visits with Xi to ask for more arms, intelligence and support. Of course, Xi is just as happy to bog the West down as we are to bog down Putin in Ukraine, so you can expect some additional covert support from the CCP.
If that doesn't help enough to change the facts on the ground, then what is Putin's next move? He'll either bomb the Zaporhizia nuclear power plant and create a disaster of unending misery for Ukraine (followed by a lame blame game on the victims), or he'll go whole hog and drop a low-yield nuclear weapon on the bulk of the Ukraine armed forces near Kharkiv.
If that happened, what would the West do? It's not going to invade or begin dropping nukes of its own. All it can do is keep doing what it's doing now. So who will claim victory then?
This is probably premature and based on anecdotal evidence, but I sense the beginnings of a "Lost Cause" narrative from some of these Russians. Like reports of Ukraine showing up suddenly in force with "NATO vehicles" (which looks even more odd to me as they adjectivize NATO in Russian - "NATOvskoe," etc.)
Like there's a narrative forming "Of course we lost, we never had a chance against the perfidious Western forces that surround Russia!"
Personal Comment: My beloved footy team is being soundly beaten in a final and I just don't care given the news from Ukraine!
Very much agree with your warning against extrapolating too far ahead. However brilliant Ukraine’s military achievements, this conflict will ultimately have to end with a political decision in Moscow. Whether that decision is taken by Putin or someone else is an interesting question, which might be affected by events on the battlefield. But at the moment he and his close circle seem to be firmly in control.
Great post. Things in Russia could get very messy domestically if Russia is forced to cut and run. Buckle up.
Very nice summary. People who have been paying attention to good sources are not surprised at Ukrainian success and Russian disarray - Putin only planned for a three day operation to seize half of Ukraine and install a puppet government (reminds me of Gilligan's Island - "a three hour tour.") But your essay also made me think of the moral decline in the west - we're going downhill "first gradually, then suddenly." In the 1970's, the left was all about "tolerance, tolerance, tolerance," and now it's totalitarian. I think that the reluctance of some on the right to want to help Ukraine is based on seeing all the bad actors during the pandemic (Macron, Trudeau, etc) rushing to help Ukraine must mean that we should be on the other side. Very sad.
“Just remember that when one man shows his fear of dying, it spreads to ten others, then to a hundred, and to a thousand others. Wait until you witness a “flood” of fleeing and frightened warriors. It is as unstoppable as lava from an erupting volcano.”
- Hlib Babych on Day 12 of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, March 8, 2022
It is true they are consolidating their resources in preparation for further attacks. It is also true that their forces have recovered from the first shock of battle, and they now fully understand where they are and what awaits them. They have begun to feel at home at war. Consequently, they proceed with their preparations and organization, fully intent on executing their attacks as planned. Their equipment is dug in and their artillery support is in place. However…
The people in their army are still the same. They are weak and demoralized, and under no illusion as to the real nature of the mission they’ve undertaken, or against whom they are fighting: there are no mythical “nazis” here; their fight is against the legitimate nation of Ukraine. They are further weakened by the cold weather and shortages of all manner of supplies. They are in the clutches of that sinking feeling of impending death. They fear the enemy, and that enemy is us.
They are now intimately familiar with the sight of fellow soldiers incinerated in their tanks, and have repeatedly seen the collection of the dead assembled on the pavement of the roads. They comprehend the fact that the country that sent them to Ukraine does not acknowledge their loss or intend on repatriating their bodies. The people in this army are the ones who are abandoning their military equipment and are running away, finding ways to surrender to us and crying for their mothers’ help when given a chance to phone home.
We face the same soldiers who faced us from the start. Their officers are compelling them to attack us against their better judgment. And when they get forced into battle, they are still as cowardly as ever. They are occupiers, yes, but they are demoralized and incapacitated by a visceral fear of death.
What’s more, the majority of the losses they have suffered to date have been their better trained troops, with adequate armaments. Neither training nor arms can be quickly replenished.
Let them make their battle preparations; a battle plan changes neither the character of the soldiers nor their resources. And remember, it is Russian military tradition that any and every battle plan goes south. The failure of their initial “blitzkrieg” is a prime example.
Their strength is their numbers. Just remember that when one man shows his fear of dying, it spreads to ten others, then to a hundred, and to a thousand others. Wait until you witness a “flood” of fleeing and frightened warriors. It is as unstoppable as lava from an erupting volcano.
Consequently, our objective is to restrain their advance; cause them as much trouble as possible. Hit them everywhere and simultaneously.
We have already experienced such success. They have no principles for which they are willing to die, but we have every reason to destroy them.
Remember that defence is always conducted under more favourable conditions than attack. Further, our resistance is being fought to save our very homes. Their attack is being executed in an unfamiliar land, full of uncertainties and painful surprises. We have been capitalizing on our advantages in battle for the past twelve days.
One more colossal counteract and we will send them reeling. They lack both essential materiel and interior motivation.
Let us hold together, make our preparations, and guard against moments of weakness. And do not be afraid. We’ve proven already that we can do all these things.
I am categorically convinced that our incredible general staff and command within the Armed Forces of Ukraine already have detailed plans for further action that they haven’t revealed. As of yet I have not seen particular elements of our capabilities in action, as they are awaiting their time and place.
Assume an attitude towards each new “storm” that properly accounts for the extent of the threat. Look at their successive attacks as one more opportunity to destroy the enemy.
We are waiting for those moments. We are preparing for them.
To paraphrase a familiar anecdote: they prepare to attack, we prepare to attack. In our present circumstances there is one new variable: any and each attack on their part will be used to our advantage.
All will unfold as it should. Glory to Ukraine Slava Ukraini.-
Hlib Babych, Ukrainian military author and veteran, a member of the Ukrainian territorial defence, who was Killed In Action July 28, 2022.
Translated from Ukrainian by Jeffrey D. Stephaniuk
I agree that it's too early to call for an end of the war. But I don't see the long term trends helpful for Russia at all. It started with not enough infantry and have had many tens of thousands of casualties. They are out numbered by the Ukrainians (who have fully mobilized) while the Russians depend on contract soldiers. I can't see them signing up for more fun in Ukraine, especially in winter. Russia doesn't want to fully mobilize and if it did it would take a lot of time to train them (and by whom and with what?). Russian morale is clearly inferior to the Ukrainians and the gulf will get bigger when news of this debacle seeps out. Inadequate and damaged logistics is a gift to the Ukrainians that will keep on giving (as will sanctions). Russia has a lot of men and equipment trapped in Kherson being slowly ground down. I can't see the populace in the Donesk and Lukansk republic fighting enthusiastically for Mother Russia-especially after so many of it's men have been forcibly conscripted and used as cannon fodder. I struggle to see how Russia can reverse these long term trends.
I keep thinking of the Michael Offensive in WW1 and how Ludendorff kept pushing forward into unexpected gaps and opportunities rather than sticking to the original plan and this then backfired and caused the rapid defeat that followed once the Allies started their counter-offensive
Is there any danger that something similar is happening with the Ukranians or are they maintaining their discipline and sticking to the plan?
Keep calm, Mr Bear. For what it's worth I think the Russians didn't plan for a war that lasted several days rather than being very poor planners. War is complex. But I don't see how that makes the Ukrainians inferior the Ukrainians. The first 200 days of this war suggests that the Ukrainians are at the very least as smart as the Russians. For starters they seem to know how to plan an effective offensive.
First rate commentary.
Good point.
Ukraine's current successes invite comparison with the massive achievements of British forces under Haig in the months before 11 November 1918. However by that date the British Army had only reached the place where the Expeditionary Force had first engaged the Germans in 1914 - near Mons, well into Belgium. The Allies had expected to have to fight on from there but German morale collapsed -, as seems to be the case with Russian morale.
It may be that the Russian general staff will decide that the war is lost and that - as with the German General Staff in 1918 - the only way to save the Army is to agree to a ceasefire and armistice under cover of which the army can withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
That would raise a question about how much territory was to be evacuated - in 1918, the allies had made substantial advances into Alsace Lorraine so these territories were already lost. Today Ukraine is not in control of any of Crimea and other land seized in 2014.
It also raises a question about Putin. Although there are signs of dissent in Russia these do not threaten the regime. It is hard to see how peace can be made while he remains Russian dictator.
It is possible that he will be compelled by his generals to step down. In 1918, after the Kaiser had declined to lead a heroic assault in which he would certainly fall, he abdicated and fled to Holland - his first request on arriving at his new home was for "a nice strong cup of English tea". The Dutch government refused to hand him over so the British were unable to put him on trial for his part in the atrocities committed by German troops in Belgium and France, atrocities similar to those committed in Ukraine. A question arises as to whether somehow a signal should be sent that a comfortable retirement in exile would be acceptable.
If Putin seeks to cling to power, and the generals are not willing to remove (or kill) him, then it is hard to see how peace can be achieved. Even if every Russian soldier is driven out of Ukraine there will be a constant threat from over the border. Ukraine is not going to occupy Russia as the allies occupied Germany in 1945.
Perhaps the appropriate response to Mr Putin's message of good wishes to King Charles III would be to remind him that when Napoleon surrendered to a Royal Navy captain after Waterloo, he was not executed but provided with a retirement home on St Helena and offer to make similar arrangements for him?
Thanks for another heartening and enlightening account. I’m left wondering how Russian military intelligence failed in its most crucial duty- to foresee and forewarn of such an attack.
Off topic question: Why are so many vehicles abandoned without (apparently) being properly disabled?
Calm in the Kremlin, SMO plan for now. ATO remains on the table
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVdE1CENV7A
StephenKMackSD
Let's not get too triumphant and begin predicting Putin's demise. He has shown time and again that he doesn't operate under the normal proclivities of being a humane leader. He's willing to unleash absolute genocide in service to his vision of himself at the head of a reclaimed Russian empire.
So what's his latest move as his troops get routed from Kharkiv? He visits with Xi to ask for more arms, intelligence and support. Of course, Xi is just as happy to bog the West down as we are to bog down Putin in Ukraine, so you can expect some additional covert support from the CCP.
If that doesn't help enough to change the facts on the ground, then what is Putin's next move? He'll either bomb the Zaporhizia nuclear power plant and create a disaster of unending misery for Ukraine (followed by a lame blame game on the victims), or he'll go whole hog and drop a low-yield nuclear weapon on the bulk of the Ukraine armed forces near Kharkiv.
If that happened, what would the West do? It's not going to invade or begin dropping nukes of its own. All it can do is keep doing what it's doing now. So who will claim victory then?