‘Salami slicing’ is a very helpful metaphor for describing the US approach to Russian red lines. What I’m not clear on is the extent to which it is a deliberate strategy versus a somewhat bungled by-product of the various disagreements within the administration and external pressure from allies.
Timely analysis of the bluff that are Putin’s red lines. Simple game theory will solve these problems and provide insight. The actions/strategies must be well defined, and the reaction functions must be well defined. The payoffs/punishments must also be well defined. Putin was hoping, and it has worked until recently, that making this a game of asymmetric information would make the US and NATO scared to act at all because they were not sure about where the redlines where and thus filled in the blanks themselves. But the problem with this is that eventually the information will be revealed through actions and then it shows that the redlines are not so set in stone, nor are the punishments for crossing them. So now, the west can take more risks and Putin has now shown to be bluffing all along as he had nothing. So now the bluff is called, he can only resort to non-nuclear threats that cannot be fulfilled so easily. So tell me when Germany will release Taurus’s missiles??
Brilliant piece, as always professor. Best analysis of red line theory I‘ve read. I hope that those in a position to take decisions will read it.
‘Salami slicing’ is a very helpful metaphor for describing the US approach to Russian red lines. What I’m not clear on is the extent to which it is a deliberate strategy versus a somewhat bungled by-product of the various disagreements within the administration and external pressure from allies.
Timely analysis of the bluff that are Putin’s red lines. Simple game theory will solve these problems and provide insight. The actions/strategies must be well defined, and the reaction functions must be well defined. The payoffs/punishments must also be well defined. Putin was hoping, and it has worked until recently, that making this a game of asymmetric information would make the US and NATO scared to act at all because they were not sure about where the redlines where and thus filled in the blanks themselves. But the problem with this is that eventually the information will be revealed through actions and then it shows that the redlines are not so set in stone, nor are the punishments for crossing them. So now, the west can take more risks and Putin has now shown to be bluffing all along as he had nothing. So now the bluff is called, he can only resort to non-nuclear threats that cannot be fulfilled so easily. So tell me when Germany will release Taurus’s missiles??
On way to avoid the problems of how to respond when the line is passed is to make it very difficult to cross it even if that is the intention.
First word should be "One" I think