For over 75 years, Gaza’s Arabs had the option to accept Israelis' right to live in peace. The brutal 7 October pogrom/einsatzgruppen attack confirmed that they reject any peaceful coexistence, even murdering left-wing kibbutzim who once supported peace. Israel's enemies desire no settlement short of Israel’s destruction. Their expulsion would be an act of legitimate self-defence.
Sri Lanka's 2009 defeat of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) shows how to deal with persistent threats. Known for suicide bombings, assassinations, and guerrilla tactics, the LTTE was crushed when Sri Lanka’s government launched an all-out offensive in 2006, using media blackouts and denying international oversight. By 2009, they had captured LTTE territory, killed its leaders, and ended a 26-year conflict. Civilian casualties were high, but it delivered long-term security.
Israel should do similarly: relocate Arabs to the Sinai, imposing a 50km+ buffer zone. With US support, Egypt could be compelled to accept the plan, yielding security gains, a cessation of attacks, and freedom to pursue economic stability.
Here is an outline concept of operations:
- Prepare. Israel and the US coordinate military and diplomatic steps.
- Mobilise. IDF reserves are readied; US assets move to the region.
- Blackout. Enforce a Gaza communications blackout to limit resistance.
- Pressure Egypt. US threatens aid cuts or sanctions if Egypt resists.
- Neutralise. If needed, target Egyptian defences in Sinai.
Where you say "immediate issues of relief, reconstruction, governance, and security. ....", I have difficulty separating those from the context in which these things would need to happen. It will all require massive assistance/resources. It's hard to see where all that would come from absent some apparently stable framework of statehood staffed with people who could be trusted to respect all the various agreements and undertakings with external public and private parties that will be necessary to accomplish anything, and with Israel claiming a right to a long-term security presence within the Gaza strip, it is also hard to foresee real progress being made on any of it.
I think it very likely Trump will encourage Israel to have a go at Iran both its nuclear programme and its energy infrastructure such as it is in return for continued US support over Gaza, Hizbollah and Syria and I think the crusty religious and political elite in Iran will crack and go the way of Assad's regime. Late 2025 early 2026.
For over 75 years, Gaza’s Arabs had the option to accept Israelis' right to live in peace. The brutal 7 October pogrom/einsatzgruppen attack confirmed that they reject any peaceful coexistence, even murdering left-wing kibbutzim who once supported peace. Israel's enemies desire no settlement short of Israel’s destruction. Their expulsion would be an act of legitimate self-defence.
Sri Lanka's 2009 defeat of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) shows how to deal with persistent threats. Known for suicide bombings, assassinations, and guerrilla tactics, the LTTE was crushed when Sri Lanka’s government launched an all-out offensive in 2006, using media blackouts and denying international oversight. By 2009, they had captured LTTE territory, killed its leaders, and ended a 26-year conflict. Civilian casualties were high, but it delivered long-term security.
Israel should do similarly: relocate Arabs to the Sinai, imposing a 50km+ buffer zone. With US support, Egypt could be compelled to accept the plan, yielding security gains, a cessation of attacks, and freedom to pursue economic stability.
Here is an outline concept of operations:
- Prepare. Israel and the US coordinate military and diplomatic steps.
- Mobilise. IDF reserves are readied; US assets move to the region.
- Blackout. Enforce a Gaza communications blackout to limit resistance.
- Pressure Egypt. US threatens aid cuts or sanctions if Egypt resists.
- Neutralise. If needed, target Egyptian defences in Sinai.
- Gaza expulsion. IDF advances south, dismantling resistance.
- Transport. Move Gazans with military protection.
- Quarantine. Create a secure 50km buffer with surveillance.
- Refugee camps. ‘Temporary’ camps in Sinai, with aid incentives to Egypt.
- Enforce buffer. Fortify with drones, radar, and defence systems.
- Secure Sinai. Conduct counter-terror operations in buffer zone.
- PR management. Launch a US-Israel campaign to justify the operation.
PS Also destroy Iranian nuclear facilities.
Good , thoughtful piece of review and analysis.
Where you say "immediate issues of relief, reconstruction, governance, and security. ....", I have difficulty separating those from the context in which these things would need to happen. It will all require massive assistance/resources. It's hard to see where all that would come from absent some apparently stable framework of statehood staffed with people who could be trusted to respect all the various agreements and undertakings with external public and private parties that will be necessary to accomplish anything, and with Israel claiming a right to a long-term security presence within the Gaza strip, it is also hard to foresee real progress being made on any of it.
I think it very likely Trump will encourage Israel to have a go at Iran both its nuclear programme and its energy infrastructure such as it is in return for continued US support over Gaza, Hizbollah and Syria and I think the crusty religious and political elite in Iran will crack and go the way of Assad's regime. Late 2025 early 2026.
and will their ever be a grand bargain (the holy grail) in the middle east ?
The 23-state solution: 22 Arab states, and Israel purged of terrorists, with both Gaza and Judea and Samaria evacuated of their Arab populations.
That's the only sustainable long-term end state.
Sadly that reads like another war