Thanks. Issues of corruption are real although I suspect that they will be addressed more effectively in future as extrenal donors will insist - and Ukraine will be very dependent upon them. If Putin had made a big play with a reasonable peace offer then I could see how some Europena governments might be tempted. But the Russian position has got harsher over time so even if people desperate to get this war over at moment no obvious way to get this done.
We'll never know who killed the deeply unloveable Dugina but one thing we can know for sure is the Russians are lying. Dugina and her pa are simply not worth the trouble of taking out from the Ukrainian viewpoint. I'm sure the Ukrainian spies and secret agents are busy doing more profitable things.
as noted here https://polit.reactor.cc/post/5176183#comment25439384 both words in the signature start with capital letters meaning it's a (nick)name rather than a blunder in execution of an order, or at least the FSB operatives really meant that person when forging the signature
sources prior to the FSB arrest are mentioned in the first article, but even if they're tenuous that still doesn't mean the person doesn't exist or doesn't go by this nickname, even though he may have nothing to do with the assassination plot
One of the things I have been wondering about is Prigozhin and the PMCs.
There seems to be the presumption that he is Putin's man - not unreasonable
But - he also has a private army which is loyal to him, his cash, and the opportunities that he can provide - not Putin or the Russian State.
I've no privilieged information here, but for an autocrat to get into a situation like Puitin has and allow military power to be accumulated outside controlled channels....
He's the wild card in Russia right now, and his men will be the point men of any major political change there....Unlike Lawrence I don't have the reputation to lose by making outrageous predictions...
Thanks for a great article. Really insightful and full of interesting detail. I still think the analysis is weighted too heavily against Russia though. I detest Putin and his regime as much as anybody but, having just arrived back to the Uk from Dnipro today, I feel that Russia is doing better than expected in the economic and information aspects of the war than it is being given credit for.
Johnson has recently linked the energy crisis in the Uk to the war and I think public opinion will lead to Liz Truss and the EU leaders to seek compromises between Ukraine and Russia - the preparing of this ground can already be seen in negative BBC stories about Ukrainian mental health care and state corruption.
It needs to at least to be considered that Putin may be getting exactly what he wants - he benefits from alienating the West because it provides him with domestic control. It must also be added that a significant number of young people, trade unionists and far left groups are starting to associate the support of Ukraine with Boris Johnson (much in the way Trump was associated with less stringent Coronavirus lockdown policies). This does not bode well for the future.
The brilliant scholar of the Great Patriotic War, David Glantz described it as ‘the clash of the titans’. If we look at the economic ‘strength of the rear’ the Russian Ukraine war is a clash of the decrepit pigmies. Ukraine’s economy is devastated and Russia is a high cost petro state with nuclear weapons that has lost its reputation as a reliable supplier. Both countries can count on economic decline in the coming years but at least Ukraine has rich patrons.
The other dimensions of the ‘strength of the rear don’t look good for Russia. The Ukrainians have vastly better morale and I’d back it quality of divisions, armament and army commanders over the Russians. Russia’s advantage seems to be more men (but they’re running out and what use are men who don’t want to fight?) and lots of artillery. I recon the Ukrainians have succeeded in stopping the Russians and largely neutralizing its artillery. Its big problem is can it take its land back. Even scared defenders will fight if they think it’s their best chance of staying alive.
Thanks. Issues of corruption are real although I suspect that they will be addressed more effectively in future as extrenal donors will insist - and Ukraine will be very dependent upon them. If Putin had made a big play with a reasonable peace offer then I could see how some Europena governments might be tempted. But the Russian position has got harsher over time so even if people desperate to get this war over at moment no obvious way to get this done.
We'll never know who killed the deeply unloveable Dugina but one thing we can know for sure is the Russians are lying. Dugina and her pa are simply not worth the trouble of taking out from the Ukrainian viewpoint. I'm sure the Ukrainian spies and secret agents are busy doing more profitable things.
"Signature Illegible" is in fact an authentic pen name of an author of right wing extremist literature
Thanks for that amusing little nugget Bayan.
Really? Can you please direct us to other instances where that non de plume has been used (prior to the FSB incident)?
nom de plume
https://insidernews.info/ob-inducirovannom-brede/
according to this article the person is Vasiliy Fedorovich
http://wikireality.ru/wiki/Василий_Федорович
------------------------------------------------
https://ukraina.ru/20220426/1033861005.html
according to the FSB his name is Andrey Pronskiy
as noted here https://polit.reactor.cc/post/5176183#comment25439384 both words in the signature start with capital letters meaning it's a (nick)name rather than a blunder in execution of an order, or at least the FSB operatives really meant that person when forging the signature
sources prior to the FSB arrest are mentioned in the first article, but even if they're tenuous that still doesn't mean the person doesn't exist or doesn't go by this nickname, even though he may have nothing to do with the assassination plot
Great article. Really enjoyed it
One of the things I have been wondering about is Prigozhin and the PMCs.
There seems to be the presumption that he is Putin's man - not unreasonable
But - he also has a private army which is loyal to him, his cash, and the opportunities that he can provide - not Putin or the Russian State.
I've no privilieged information here, but for an autocrat to get into a situation like Puitin has and allow military power to be accumulated outside controlled channels....
He's the wild card in Russia right now, and his men will be the point men of any major political change there....Unlike Lawrence I don't have the reputation to lose by making outrageous predictions...
Acutely insightful and deep undestanding of corrupt regimes.
Thanks for a great article. Really insightful and full of interesting detail. I still think the analysis is weighted too heavily against Russia though. I detest Putin and his regime as much as anybody but, having just arrived back to the Uk from Dnipro today, I feel that Russia is doing better than expected in the economic and information aspects of the war than it is being given credit for.
Johnson has recently linked the energy crisis in the Uk to the war and I think public opinion will lead to Liz Truss and the EU leaders to seek compromises between Ukraine and Russia - the preparing of this ground can already be seen in negative BBC stories about Ukrainian mental health care and state corruption.
It needs to at least to be considered that Putin may be getting exactly what he wants - he benefits from alienating the West because it provides him with domestic control. It must also be added that a significant number of young people, trade unionists and far left groups are starting to associate the support of Ukraine with Boris Johnson (much in the way Trump was associated with less stringent Coronavirus lockdown policies). This does not bode well for the future.
The brilliant scholar of the Great Patriotic War, David Glantz described it as ‘the clash of the titans’. If we look at the economic ‘strength of the rear’ the Russian Ukraine war is a clash of the decrepit pigmies. Ukraine’s economy is devastated and Russia is a high cost petro state with nuclear weapons that has lost its reputation as a reliable supplier. Both countries can count on economic decline in the coming years but at least Ukraine has rich patrons.
The other dimensions of the ‘strength of the rear don’t look good for Russia. The Ukrainians have vastly better morale and I’d back it quality of divisions, armament and army commanders over the Russians. Russia’s advantage seems to be more men (but they’re running out and what use are men who don’t want to fight?) and lots of artillery. I recon the Ukrainians have succeeded in stopping the Russians and largely neutralizing its artillery. Its big problem is can it take its land back. Even scared defenders will fight if they think it’s their best chance of staying alive.
One has to shake one's head in wonder at the FSB's consistency
Fantastic article. Thanks!
Superb