I couldn’t update the subscriptions in the Substack app. It gave me the message, “You cannot manage your subscription in the app.” It was fine accessing the “manage subscriptions” page through a browser.
The MRP in 2017 was crucial in removing the Faragist Putinista Julian "Haw-Haw" BraZier from Canterbury . After the MRP showed him only just ahead of Labour, and despite a very good LibDem candidate, the LibDems swung en masse behind Rosie Duffield - "this is our chance to get rid of HIM".
I am concerned that at least some MRP projections are badly wrong - e.g. Hereford where Labour is shown as the challenger despite there being only 1 Labour ward in 2023 and a larger number of LibDem than Cons wards. I joined the Conservatives when Ted Heath was leader. I was at the 1972 Party Conference when Robert Carr (for whom I was later to work) saw off a Powell attack on welcoming the Ugandan Asians. My first job was with the Macmillan family. The party I once belonged to has ceased to exist. It is essential for our country that MRPs encourage accurate tactical voting to obliterate the Gangsters who have seized control of the former Tory party.
So I very much hope your research will lead to accurate information on constituencies being disseminated.
A hot take - obviously none of us who read this Substack will like hearing about it, but I think it's good for democracy that an election features clear dividing lines between the parties, and Rwanda is a big one even if its importance is probably overstated. It's nice that there's a flagship issue where Labour feels emboldened to say, "yes, obviously they're a useless government that long since passed its sell-by date, but beyond that they're deeply shitty people doing gratuitously cruel things, because they also think that the voters are also cruel, but we know you're better than that."
Got your first daily email today. The polling figures table of the various pollsters excludes the SNP, the third largest party, but includes Lib Dems, Greens, and Reform. Not impressed - hoping for better in future emails/posts.
We're going to have separate posts on Scotland. It will have a huge impact on the overall result but it's just very different to what's going on in England and Wales. (The SNP consistently get 2-4% in all UK polls but that tells us nothing about their strength in Scotland.)
Glad you are going to cover Scotland obviously, but still don't understand why you would exclude the SNP from the table. It doesn't give the full picture.
Thanks for the explanation. I half understand why SubStack keep the ability to manage subscriptions outside of the app but still hope that one day this will become more intuitive and purely app based. Not in your gift I know. Anyhow, looking forward hugely to you and the “teams” analysis.
A small request for Josh, Dylan and you. Would be great to understand based off of resignations and your predictions how many new MPs there are likely to be in the coming parliament? Looking set to be a historic infusion of new blood with all the opportunities and challenges therein.
Echo how great it is to have Josh & Dylan on board - three of the very best analysts in one place. It’s so easy to miss things on Twitter especially given how much will be going on daily, so really appreciate the regular updates here.
I couldn’t update the subscriptions in the Substack app. It gave me the message, “You cannot manage your subscription in the app.” It was fine accessing the “manage subscriptions” page through a browser.
Answered my question, too. Thanks Tony.
The MRP in 2017 was crucial in removing the Faragist Putinista Julian "Haw-Haw" BraZier from Canterbury . After the MRP showed him only just ahead of Labour, and despite a very good LibDem candidate, the LibDems swung en masse behind Rosie Duffield - "this is our chance to get rid of HIM".
I am concerned that at least some MRP projections are badly wrong - e.g. Hereford where Labour is shown as the challenger despite there being only 1 Labour ward in 2023 and a larger number of LibDem than Cons wards. I joined the Conservatives when Ted Heath was leader. I was at the 1972 Party Conference when Robert Carr (for whom I was later to work) saw off a Powell attack on welcoming the Ugandan Asians. My first job was with the Macmillan family. The party I once belonged to has ceased to exist. It is essential for our country that MRPs encourage accurate tactical voting to obliterate the Gangsters who have seized control of the former Tory party.
So I very much hope your research will lead to accurate information on constituencies being disseminated.
Rwanda may be mentioned once or twice.
Enjoy as last election when humans brainier than AI
A hot take - obviously none of us who read this Substack will like hearing about it, but I think it's good for democracy that an election features clear dividing lines between the parties, and Rwanda is a big one even if its importance is probably overstated. It's nice that there's a flagship issue where Labour feels emboldened to say, "yes, obviously they're a useless government that long since passed its sell-by date, but beyond that they're deeply shitty people doing gratuitously cruel things, because they also think that the voters are also cruel, but we know you're better than that."
Looking forward to it.
Very much looking forward to it. Unbelievable to think we are now on the final run up to the big day. Felt like it’d never come.
I'll be reading it on the site but not signing up to avoid inbox clutter.
A great team. Really like Josh’s analysis.
Looking forward to the analysis and predictions
Got your first daily email today. The polling figures table of the various pollsters excludes the SNP, the third largest party, but includes Lib Dems, Greens, and Reform. Not impressed - hoping for better in future emails/posts.
We're going to have separate posts on Scotland. It will have a huge impact on the overall result but it's just very different to what's going on in England and Wales. (The SNP consistently get 2-4% in all UK polls but that tells us nothing about their strength in Scotland.)
Glad you are going to cover Scotland obviously, but still don't understand why you would exclude the SNP from the table. It doesn't give the full picture.
Thanks for the explanation. I half understand why SubStack keep the ability to manage subscriptions outside of the app but still hope that one day this will become more intuitive and purely app based. Not in your gift I know. Anyhow, looking forward hugely to you and the “teams” analysis.
Looking forward enormously to your election commentaries
Slight typo w Josh’s Twitter handle there
Coverage sounds terrific - look forward to reading it all!
So pleased Josh and Dylan will be involved. Especially Josh who kept me sane during the London Mayor election!
A small request for Josh, Dylan and you. Would be great to understand based off of resignations and your predictions how many new MPs there are likely to be in the coming parliament? Looking set to be a historic infusion of new blood with all the opportunities and challenges therein.
Echo how great it is to have Josh & Dylan on board - three of the very best analysts in one place. It’s so easy to miss things on Twitter especially given how much will be going on daily, so really appreciate the regular updates here.