Since late 2022, when Biden and Scholz rushed to Russia's aid, when Ukraine had the momentum after its Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, it became obvious that Mr. Weak and Mr. Meek, driven by their Rasputins Sullivan and Plötner, find a piecemeal annihilation of Ukraine acceptable. They remain focused on throwing Ukraine under the bus, not too fast so as not to upset their mollycoddled and entitled citizenries that prioritise consumption and holidaymaking over withstanding the empire of evil. Biden and Scholz, by way of absurd redlinery and incrementalism, are effectively facilitating a Minsk 3 and later a Republic Lviv.
France and the UK are not producing more SCALP and Storm Shadow, Germany refuses to deliver Taurus and stopped production years ago. The entire European defence industry is not on a war footing after well over two years, while Russia has reliable allies with Iran, North Korea and China. Russia's allies deliver. Ukraine's allies dither. And so, valiant as it is, the Kursk incursion won't bother Putin much, because it is Russian periphery, boring, without any meaningful industry, resources or agriculture, whereas the Donbas is all of that, and more. Putin can always take back Kursk later.
Zelenskyi's presser to me sounded as if he knows that over 20% of Ukrainian territory are gone forever, rapidly russified and never to return, as if he knows that no reparations will be paid, no women and children repatriated, no Russian war criminals ever facing the music in The Hague.
Unlike with Hitler (Second World War) or Kim Il-sung (Korean War), the West is no longer able and also not willing to muster a concerted effort. Putin and other leaders of dubious nations around the world will be rewarded and encouraged.
It would seem the ongoing targeting of Ukraine's civil energy infrastructure by Russia should be ringing alarm bells in EU (and US). It would be a major problem if UA has so little energy that it forces millions to leave the country (no doubt Putin would be pleased as it adopted the same strategy as in Syria). It's time EU and US closed down Putin's adventure, for the stability of the world. Putin's military has been so depleted by its adventure that I don't think such a move would be an escalation, it would just bring a speedy end to Putin's regime. Oligarchs are already running scared of the oil infrastructure they have in Russia and trying to sell it off as it is becoming worthless, and it will not take much more of a push on their goodies to make them realise they are backing the wrong person now.
"Even a returning President Trump would not be able to go back to pre-invasion relations."
I would recommend caution over this one. We don't know exactly what leverage Putin has over Donald Trump and what concessions Trump will be prepared to make in order to remain in his good graces. But perhaps the more important question is what any return to good relations would imply for the future of the conflict. Most informed commentary suggests it would result in much increased pressure on Ukraine to capitulate. A Trump election victory could be very bad news for Ukraine.
Mick Ryan recently wrote about how the Kursk offensive exemplifies the contrast between Ukraine’s ‘strategic audacity’ and the West’s strategic timidity.
It echoes a point Hal Brands makes in his book ‘The Twilight Struggle’ namely that the West’s ability to engage successfully in great power rivalry, including a willingness to take on risk, has atrophied since the end of the Cold War.
The reluctance to allow Ukraine to use Western long range systems to attack targets in Russia is, I fear, born of this same atrophying and needs to change.
In terms of targeting there's certainly shades of Ukraine following the same principles of the Allied air campaigns against Nazi Germany which involved repeated strategic bombing of oil refineries, plus all the things that moved coal around creating huge energy shortages and rationing, plus degrading the Germans ability to make materiel. All Ukraine needs to do is keep it up for the next year, unlike the Allies who were constantly switching targets rather than concentrating on the knocking out of the German economy.
I also wonder about the Russians and compare them to the Germans in World War 2 who rather than develop and build strategic bombers as Britain and America did, spent increasing amounts of money on rocketry with poor results. They must be firing off billions of dollars worth of ballistic missiles because of their historical love of Soviet wonder-weapons, whilst the Ukrainians are developing strategic drones and doing mass raids with them. Imagine if the Russians spent those resources on the same instead - they could absolutely plaster Ukraine in drones but instead they buy rubbish from Iran and fire $20 million dollar rockets to keep their space programme in jobs.
Take care when you praise the Allied air campaigns of WW2. The Allied targeted densely populated centres of the large towns and set Hamburg and Dresden ablaze, probably because Germany fought and lost WW1 outside Germany.
Since late 2022, when Biden and Scholz rushed to Russia's aid, when Ukraine had the momentum after its Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, it became obvious that Mr. Weak and Mr. Meek, driven by their Rasputins Sullivan and Plötner, find a piecemeal annihilation of Ukraine acceptable. They remain focused on throwing Ukraine under the bus, not too fast so as not to upset their mollycoddled and entitled citizenries that prioritise consumption and holidaymaking over withstanding the empire of evil. Biden and Scholz, by way of absurd redlinery and incrementalism, are effectively facilitating a Minsk 3 and later a Republic Lviv.
France and the UK are not producing more SCALP and Storm Shadow, Germany refuses to deliver Taurus and stopped production years ago. The entire European defence industry is not on a war footing after well over two years, while Russia has reliable allies with Iran, North Korea and China. Russia's allies deliver. Ukraine's allies dither. And so, valiant as it is, the Kursk incursion won't bother Putin much, because it is Russian periphery, boring, without any meaningful industry, resources or agriculture, whereas the Donbas is all of that, and more. Putin can always take back Kursk later.
Zelenskyi's presser to me sounded as if he knows that over 20% of Ukrainian territory are gone forever, rapidly russified and never to return, as if he knows that no reparations will be paid, no women and children repatriated, no Russian war criminals ever facing the music in The Hague.
Unlike with Hitler (Second World War) or Kim Il-sung (Korean War), the West is no longer able and also not willing to muster a concerted effort. Putin and other leaders of dubious nations around the world will be rewarded and encouraged.
Excuse me for being so blunt.
It would seem the ongoing targeting of Ukraine's civil energy infrastructure by Russia should be ringing alarm bells in EU (and US). It would be a major problem if UA has so little energy that it forces millions to leave the country (no doubt Putin would be pleased as it adopted the same strategy as in Syria). It's time EU and US closed down Putin's adventure, for the stability of the world. Putin's military has been so depleted by its adventure that I don't think such a move would be an escalation, it would just bring a speedy end to Putin's regime. Oligarchs are already running scared of the oil infrastructure they have in Russia and trying to sell it off as it is becoming worthless, and it will not take much more of a push on their goodies to make them realise they are backing the wrong person now.
"Even a returning President Trump would not be able to go back to pre-invasion relations."
I would recommend caution over this one. We don't know exactly what leverage Putin has over Donald Trump and what concessions Trump will be prepared to make in order to remain in his good graces. But perhaps the more important question is what any return to good relations would imply for the future of the conflict. Most informed commentary suggests it would result in much increased pressure on Ukraine to capitulate. A Trump election victory could be very bad news for Ukraine.
Thank you for your excellent analysis. A Harris victory is key.
Mick Ryan recently wrote about how the Kursk offensive exemplifies the contrast between Ukraine’s ‘strategic audacity’ and the West’s strategic timidity.
It echoes a point Hal Brands makes in his book ‘The Twilight Struggle’ namely that the West’s ability to engage successfully in great power rivalry, including a willingness to take on risk, has atrophied since the end of the Cold War.
The reluctance to allow Ukraine to use Western long range systems to attack targets in Russia is, I fear, born of this same atrophying and needs to change.
In terms of targeting there's certainly shades of Ukraine following the same principles of the Allied air campaigns against Nazi Germany which involved repeated strategic bombing of oil refineries, plus all the things that moved coal around creating huge energy shortages and rationing, plus degrading the Germans ability to make materiel. All Ukraine needs to do is keep it up for the next year, unlike the Allies who were constantly switching targets rather than concentrating on the knocking out of the German economy.
I also wonder about the Russians and compare them to the Germans in World War 2 who rather than develop and build strategic bombers as Britain and America did, spent increasing amounts of money on rocketry with poor results. They must be firing off billions of dollars worth of ballistic missiles because of their historical love of Soviet wonder-weapons, whilst the Ukrainians are developing strategic drones and doing mass raids with them. Imagine if the Russians spent those resources on the same instead - they could absolutely plaster Ukraine in drones but instead they buy rubbish from Iran and fire $20 million dollar rockets to keep their space programme in jobs.
Take care when you praise the Allied air campaigns of WW2. The Allied targeted densely populated centres of the large towns and set Hamburg and Dresden ablaze, probably because Germany fought and lost WW1 outside Germany.