How can the security of Ukraine and, indeed, any country, be achieved and sustained if it is dependent on the 4-year US presidential cycle, and possibly, even worse, the wishes of a person who is not in government in the US but controls Congress on key defence issues?
Very much looking forward to the book despite knowing that it will depress and enrage me.
One of the things that makes me optimistic about a possible Starmer/Reeves government is that both seem like strong institutionalists, the former having run and reformed a large public service and the latter's time at the Bank of England. This makes me hope that they, more than any other recent PM/Chancellor pairing *get* structures and institutions and how important it is that they properly function.
Am I deluded in thinking they are like that? And even if so, do you think the cross-pressures of British politics and the headwinds they would face would just be too overwhelming?
I'd be interested on LF's take on what the shape of a hypothetical US-China war might be (sorry if I've asked this before ...), as a corrective to people who glibly talk about such a war without considering what that might actually involve for the two countries and the rest of the world.
The discussion I've seen tends to focus on how war might start: an assault by China on Taiwan and a US response. I've seen less which recognises the obvious point that these are superpowers with enormous resources, with an ocean between them, so neither can expect to easily defeat the other. A war between them might be very long, or there might be a series of wars with periods of uneasy truce, until domestic strain eventually forces one or both to stop fighting. I realise this is a very long piece of string but I'd be interested in your thoughts.
Hi both. Lawrence - Phillips O'Brien’s main thesis is that there are no decisive battles in a war, it’s all about logistics and manufacturing weapons. Therefore in order for Ukraine to win they will need a huge boost in supplies from us (Europe and US). If we assume the worst case - ie that the US is soon to be out of the picture, do you think that Europe will be able to step up?
Sam - is a significant upturn in the UK economy impossible without greater realignment with the EU?
A question for you - how do you think that political parties (and government more widely) could or should manage talent attraction and development? It feels like the quality of ministers has been in decline for some time, and that their ability to develop policy, lead/mobilise its delivery, and to present coherently has dipped - with obvious consequences for our society. Thank you!
Dear Sam & Lawrence, thanks for your fabulous substack. I would like to know @Sam your thoughts about universal basic income, the consequences of the Thatcher privatisation revolution, particularly with reference to asset stripping and failed investment in infrastructure (Thames Water, the NHS, the national rail network, etc.), and @ Lawrence your ideas on reparations for slavery and other imperial/colonial responsibilities (Africa, Caribbean, Palestine, etc.) in the light of climate change and semi-Global Britain! All best wishes,
Are the upcoming elections make or break for populism in the UK and US? If rejected by both does it retreat to the fringes or does it create a vacuum for more extreme leaders to enter the mainstream. If it is rejected, would Putin reassess his strategy of waiting it out until the West stops supporting Ukraine or is he too far down the road now to consider an off ramp?
Might the Tories introduce Proportional Representation to avoid a total wipeout?
If the Conservative polling average dropped another 3-5% between now and the election few of the cabinet would survive and they’d likely be the third party behind the Lib Dems with under 50 seats.
Being guaranteed 100 seats so long as they poll over 16% via PR (which Labour might introduce anyway) could seem a lot more attractive.
Or are they pretty sure to assume that having the boost of Hester’s £15m will take them well above pre-campaign polls?
A question for both. As I need (maybe we all need) a bit of optimism: by Christmas 2025, what's your view of a reasonable best-case?
Biden with a democrat congress decides summer 2025 is the time to really sort Ukraine? Starmer is unexpectedly bold, and drives growth through planning and EU reconciliation? A larger than expected boost from competent government, or a (genuinely) better projection on spending? NHS has a best-case winter?
I'm not sure what's possible, but what in your mind should we all be hoping for (within the realms of possibility)?
Hi Sam I guess it’s a précis of your book and future quick wins but what can Labour do?
I see a lot of ill informed commentary on social media talking about “austerity” whereas the Tories have spent money like a drunken sailor. Taxes are at an all time high and targeting things like CGT and capital allowances will crush what little growth there is. Difficult inheritance to say the least….
Sam, will you be doing events with the book? Be great if we could get you up to Ilkley for the literature festival in October. You'd get a very good turnout given the state of the River Wharfe and Yorkshire Water, the financial issues with Bradford Council, the rebuild of Airedale Hospital etc
As per a previous post comment, I would like you to post an analytic review of post 1980 educational policy delineating what has worked and what hasn't and the associated policy implications for a new Starmer government.
Problem in nutshell appears to me that community-geographical defined catchment areas reflect their socio-economic characteristics, while attempting to alter that involves some form of social engineering with attendant issues.
That there is little evidence that providing social housing leads to improved socio-economic outcomes for tenants could be related to poor neighbourhood schools and low expectations in some areas of contracted council housing.
A question for Lawrence:
How can the security of Ukraine and, indeed, any country, be achieved and sustained if it is dependent on the 4-year US presidential cycle, and possibly, even worse, the wishes of a person who is not in government in the US but controls Congress on key defence issues?
Question for Sam:
Very much looking forward to the book despite knowing that it will depress and enrage me.
One of the things that makes me optimistic about a possible Starmer/Reeves government is that both seem like strong institutionalists, the former having run and reformed a large public service and the latter's time at the Bank of England. This makes me hope that they, more than any other recent PM/Chancellor pairing *get* structures and institutions and how important it is that they properly function.
Am I deluded in thinking they are like that? And even if so, do you think the cross-pressures of British politics and the headwinds they would face would just be too overwhelming?
I'd be interested on LF's take on what the shape of a hypothetical US-China war might be (sorry if I've asked this before ...), as a corrective to people who glibly talk about such a war without considering what that might actually involve for the two countries and the rest of the world.
The discussion I've seen tends to focus on how war might start: an assault by China on Taiwan and a US response. I've seen less which recognises the obvious point that these are superpowers with enormous resources, with an ocean between them, so neither can expect to easily defeat the other. A war between them might be very long, or there might be a series of wars with periods of uneasy truce, until domestic strain eventually forces one or both to stop fighting. I realise this is a very long piece of string but I'd be interested in your thoughts.
Hi both. Lawrence - Phillips O'Brien’s main thesis is that there are no decisive battles in a war, it’s all about logistics and manufacturing weapons. Therefore in order for Ukraine to win they will need a huge boost in supplies from us (Europe and US). If we assume the worst case - ie that the US is soon to be out of the picture, do you think that Europe will be able to step up?
Sam - is a significant upturn in the UK economy impossible without greater realignment with the EU?
Do we need an immediate and massive rearmament programme as we live in an increasingly unstable world? Derek
Hi Sam,
A question for you - how do you think that political parties (and government more widely) could or should manage talent attraction and development? It feels like the quality of ministers has been in decline for some time, and that their ability to develop policy, lead/mobilise its delivery, and to present coherently has dipped - with obvious consequences for our society. Thank you!
Sam - looking forward to the book. For those who don't want to give Jeff Bezos any more money than can be helped, you can pre-order here and support independent bookshops : https://uk.bookshop.org/p/books/failed-state-why-nothing-works-and-how-we-fix-it-sam-freedman/7648860?ean=9781035026593
Dear Sam & Lawrence, thanks for your fabulous substack. I would like to know @Sam your thoughts about universal basic income, the consequences of the Thatcher privatisation revolution, particularly with reference to asset stripping and failed investment in infrastructure (Thames Water, the NHS, the national rail network, etc.), and @ Lawrence your ideas on reparations for slavery and other imperial/colonial responsibilities (Africa, Caribbean, Palestine, etc.) in the light of climate change and semi-Global Britain! All best wishes,
For Sam: I’d love to hear your thoughts on citizens’ assemblies / deliberative research as a way of informing policy.
Sam
How can we reduce inequality in the UK?And yet keeping in mind the need to take action on the climate.
Audible book preordered.
Anita
Are the upcoming elections make or break for populism in the UK and US? If rejected by both does it retreat to the fringes or does it create a vacuum for more extreme leaders to enter the mainstream. If it is rejected, would Putin reassess his strategy of waiting it out until the West stops supporting Ukraine or is he too far down the road now to consider an off ramp?
For Sam:
Might the Tories introduce Proportional Representation to avoid a total wipeout?
If the Conservative polling average dropped another 3-5% between now and the election few of the cabinet would survive and they’d likely be the third party behind the Lib Dems with under 50 seats.
Being guaranteed 100 seats so long as they poll over 16% via PR (which Labour might introduce anyway) could seem a lot more attractive.
Or are they pretty sure to assume that having the boost of Hester’s £15m will take them well above pre-campaign polls?
A question for both. As I need (maybe we all need) a bit of optimism: by Christmas 2025, what's your view of a reasonable best-case?
Biden with a democrat congress decides summer 2025 is the time to really sort Ukraine? Starmer is unexpectedly bold, and drives growth through planning and EU reconciliation? A larger than expected boost from competent government, or a (genuinely) better projection on spending? NHS has a best-case winter?
I'm not sure what's possible, but what in your mind should we all be hoping for (within the realms of possibility)?
Hi Sam I guess it’s a précis of your book and future quick wins but what can Labour do?
I see a lot of ill informed commentary on social media talking about “austerity” whereas the Tories have spent money like a drunken sailor. Taxes are at an all time high and targeting things like CGT and capital allowances will crush what little growth there is. Difficult inheritance to say the least….
Sam, will you be doing events with the book? Be great if we could get you up to Ilkley for the literature festival in October. You'd get a very good turnout given the state of the River Wharfe and Yorkshire Water, the financial issues with Bradford Council, the rebuild of Airedale Hospital etc
Sam,
As per a previous post comment, I would like you to post an analytic review of post 1980 educational policy delineating what has worked and what hasn't and the associated policy implications for a new Starmer government.
Problem in nutshell appears to me that community-geographical defined catchment areas reflect their socio-economic characteristics, while attempting to alter that involves some form of social engineering with attendant issues.
That there is little evidence that providing social housing leads to improved socio-economic outcomes for tenants could be related to poor neighbourhood schools and low expectations in some areas of contracted council housing.
Not really a question, but you will get the gist.