Have you got an answer to the puzzle of how Starmer is so effective in some ways (wins a massive majority, controls the Labour Party, has some good policies which are making a difference) and how useless he is an an advocate for the work of the government, and how timid he is?
Here's my question, having read many posts now by each of you.
If you were to both write on the same topic, would someone be able to tell which of you wrote which piece? And not just regarding style, but your analytical approaches.
You're both extremely well informed and well read on so many topics, but there are only 24 hours in each day. So what does the Freedman media diet look like?
I’ve read a number of commentators talk of Mark Carney completely rewriting the global balance of power and keeping Trump in check by being super clever in his actions and decisions. What is your take on this?
Sam, it seems clear that a radical anti-democratic MAGA core of around 25% (or more) of the US electorate will be a fixture on the American right for the foreseeable future. How large would you say the equivalent constituency on the British right is? What are the differences between the two as you see them?
I might be alone in thinking Starmer is doing ok as PM in the circs. If you look at the underlining principles of the government’s work it is on the right lines (except health, I should add, where the rhetoric is wildly out of line with the reality, and is leading to crisis). However he needs to show some leadership and allow some attack dogs loose to talk on Farage. Who should they be and what would work?
It is hard to be an attack dog for the government when there isn’t an overriding story. In the FT politics weekly podcast, Steven Bush has consistently said that this is reason why the government struggles to attack reform.
Many commentators have said that our First Past The post voting system is not fit for purpose given the current state of party politics. Is there any practical path which results in a change to the voting system for the next general election? Or failing that, which makes such a change highly probable for the GE after that?
Some of the analysis on the war in Ukraine appears to suggest Putin has gone ‘all in’ in Ukraine and therefore it isn’t possible to deter him from continued aggression. The relative success of the Black Sea grain initiative combined with wider restraint in Russian activity in the Black Sea indicate if there are sufficient costs to Putin he can be deterred (at least in certain domains).
What is your assessment on the extent to which Putin can be deterred from continuing the war in Ukraine if sufficiently high costs can be imposed on Russia/him? What would those costs be?
At the start of the Ukraine war, one of the arguments of those claiming that Russia would have not used nuclear weapons is that they would have suffered a massive retaliation (non-nuclear) from NATO. That was before Trump. Today, that argument seems having lost substance. The question therefore is what is currently deterring Russia from using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and how is that deterrence likely to evolve moving forward?
Lawrence, I heard through the grapevine that Putin has stationed his best troops near the borders of the Baltic countries and Poland. Only the second grade and below are sent to Ukraine. Is there any truth in this and do you think that Putin could perhaps threaten to invade these other countries as leverage to gain more territory in Ukraine?
I keep hearing broadcasters that I respect saying that the strength of feeling regarding illegal immigration is 'understandable,' but is it really? Surely, these are irrational fears stoked by the far right and reinforced by mainstream politicians?
Do either of you share my (perhaps naive) faith in the notion that as Nigel Farage gets closer and closer to government, he'll blow Reform up (as he's blown up so much before) because he does not really want power?
In my view, much depends on how Reform acts at the local level, and, if it screws up (as it's certainly doing in various councils at the moment), whether this is properly reported by the media, both local and national. So a supplementary question would be: how can we ensure that such reporting takes place? (I take it as axiomatic that the right-wing press is simply a no-go zone in this case).
I think there's a certain amount of optimism bias in how people are watching Reform's performance in local government. They've had some candidate embarrassments and some squabbles, but frankly all parties get that, particularly if they win bigger than they expect. So far, they are so constrained by all the things that constrain all local authorities that I doubt voters have noticed much difference yet - and they can blame Westminster with impunity for their failure to deliver (just as all oppositions do).
Maybe, but in my experience, the closer you get, the worse it looks. I live in Kent, and the main problem with KCC is paralysis (I've spoken to various non-Reform councillors) and disinformation. As an example of the latter, they've claimed credit for new spending on our dreadful roads (obviously a popular move) when in fact all the money was allotted by central government and the previous Tory-run council. I fear that this too is a sign of things to come: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/28/ban-on-news-outlet-by-nottinghamshire-county-council-reform-leader-a-massive-attack-on-local-democracy
One for Lawrence perhaps, what is the future for the Russian created territory of Transnistria? With Moldova now increasingly on a European course and breaking free of its dependency on Russian gas routed through the territory, and Ukraine making no secret of its desire to clear out a hotspot in its rear, it appears to be isolated and vulnerable to Moldova tightening the noose or even forcing reintegration.
There's something about the post of Home Secretary that seems to turn whoever holds it (from whichever party) into a hawkish radical authoritarian.
What is it that does it - the pressure from the media, confidential briefings of threats that the rest of us don't see, or something else entirely?
Have you got an answer to the puzzle of how Starmer is so effective in some ways (wins a massive majority, controls the Labour Party, has some good policies which are making a difference) and how useless he is an an advocate for the work of the government, and how timid he is?
And seemingly highly effective on the world stage for a small country.
Here's my question, having read many posts now by each of you.
If you were to both write on the same topic, would someone be able to tell which of you wrote which piece? And not just regarding style, but your analytical approaches.
You're both extremely well informed and well read on so many topics, but there are only 24 hours in each day. So what does the Freedman media diet look like?
I’ve read a number of commentators talk of Mark Carney completely rewriting the global balance of power and keeping Trump in check by being super clever in his actions and decisions. What is your take on this?
Sam, it seems clear that a radical anti-democratic MAGA core of around 25% (or more) of the US electorate will be a fixture on the American right for the foreseeable future. How large would you say the equivalent constituency on the British right is? What are the differences between the two as you see them?
How vulnerable is the UK constitution if an illiberal, authoritarian leader were elected in the future.
Got a longer post coming up on this soon so will save for then!
I might be alone in thinking Starmer is doing ok as PM in the circs. If you look at the underlining principles of the government’s work it is on the right lines (except health, I should add, where the rhetoric is wildly out of line with the reality, and is leading to crisis). However he needs to show some leadership and allow some attack dogs loose to talk on Farage. Who should they be and what would work?
It is hard to be an attack dog for the government when there isn’t an overriding story. In the FT politics weekly podcast, Steven Bush has consistently said that this is reason why the government struggles to attack reform.
Many commentators have said that our First Past The post voting system is not fit for purpose given the current state of party politics. Is there any practical path which results in a change to the voting system for the next general election? Or failing that, which makes such a change highly probable for the GE after that?
For Lawrence:
Some of the analysis on the war in Ukraine appears to suggest Putin has gone ‘all in’ in Ukraine and therefore it isn’t possible to deter him from continued aggression. The relative success of the Black Sea grain initiative combined with wider restraint in Russian activity in the Black Sea indicate if there are sufficient costs to Putin he can be deterred (at least in certain domains).
What is your assessment on the extent to which Putin can be deterred from continuing the war in Ukraine if sufficiently high costs can be imposed on Russia/him? What would those costs be?
At the start of the Ukraine war, one of the arguments of those claiming that Russia would have not used nuclear weapons is that they would have suffered a massive retaliation (non-nuclear) from NATO. That was before Trump. Today, that argument seems having lost substance. The question therefore is what is currently deterring Russia from using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and how is that deterrence likely to evolve moving forward?
Lawrence, I heard through the grapevine that Putin has stationed his best troops near the borders of the Baltic countries and Poland. Only the second grade and below are sent to Ukraine. Is there any truth in this and do you think that Putin could perhaps threaten to invade these other countries as leverage to gain more territory in Ukraine?
I keep hearing broadcasters that I respect saying that the strength of feeling regarding illegal immigration is 'understandable,' but is it really? Surely, these are irrational fears stoked by the far right and reinforced by mainstream politicians?
A very simple, but also very complex question: how do you restore public trust in British politics/democracy?
also this!
Do either of you share my (perhaps naive) faith in the notion that as Nigel Farage gets closer and closer to government, he'll blow Reform up (as he's blown up so much before) because he does not really want power?
In my view, much depends on how Reform acts at the local level, and, if it screws up (as it's certainly doing in various councils at the moment), whether this is properly reported by the media, both local and national. So a supplementary question would be: how can we ensure that such reporting takes place? (I take it as axiomatic that the right-wing press is simply a no-go zone in this case).
I think there's a certain amount of optimism bias in how people are watching Reform's performance in local government. They've had some candidate embarrassments and some squabbles, but frankly all parties get that, particularly if they win bigger than they expect. So far, they are so constrained by all the things that constrain all local authorities that I doubt voters have noticed much difference yet - and they can blame Westminster with impunity for their failure to deliver (just as all oppositions do).
Maybe, but in my experience, the closer you get, the worse it looks. I live in Kent, and the main problem with KCC is paralysis (I've spoken to various non-Reform councillors) and disinformation. As an example of the latter, they've claimed credit for new spending on our dreadful roads (obviously a popular move) when in fact all the money was allotted by central government and the previous Tory-run council. I fear that this too is a sign of things to come: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/28/ban-on-news-outlet-by-nottinghamshire-county-council-reform-leader-a-massive-attack-on-local-democracy
One for Lawrence perhaps, what is the future for the Russian created territory of Transnistria? With Moldova now increasingly on a European course and breaking free of its dependency on Russian gas routed through the territory, and Ukraine making no secret of its desire to clear out a hotspot in its rear, it appears to be isolated and vulnerable to Moldova tightening the noose or even forcing reintegration.