I lived in Donetsk in 2009-2010, as part of my degree. I taught English and my students were very pro-Russia, although also adamant they were Ukrainians and proud to be bilingual. Their parents sometimes had a stronger Russian identity but most were proud to say they were distinctively Ukrainian. In 2014 Russia's actions decisively turned them all into anti-Putin Ukrainians, painful for many due to family links to Russia. Desperately sad for Ukrainians today, a beautiful country (Donetsk - city of Roses!), great people and a potentially bright future. I hope they overcome.
Moral of the story: Nobody likes to be invaded or colonized. It’s a basic truism that a shockingly large portion of humanity somehow doesn’t understand.
That's kind of obvious I think. Don't know why both Russia and the US has failed to understand this in this era. I can understand that older cultures didn't understand it.
However the Orange revolution and the Euromaiden protests I found more interesting in this case. What happened in Ukraine that lead up to those events? And how did it affect pro-russian and pro-western sentiments?
I agree on all except of 6. Ukrainian politicians has been heavily influenced by Russia and the west. Politicians has been trained by both sides. Organisations has been funded by both Kreml and the US senate through NED. Both the orange revolution of 2004 and the Euromaiden protests of 2014 was supported by western powers.
Russia should have worked on more friendly relationships with the ukrainians instead of the political influence and invasions.
I’m from Moscow, and I didn’t want this war ever to happen. With those of you who say “God save the Ukrainians” I agree, but I want to add: God, save the Russians too. What is now happening is a big disaster for all of us.
Great article. I always sided w/ Ukraine, but I admit I am surprised by my own feelings of...patriotism? What's the right word for feeling nationalism on someone else's behalf?...about this conflict. It's simply so outrageous and the initial defense so inspiring it's hard not to want to see a victorious Ukraine and reeling Russia.
Great Article. I'm surprised the 'analysis' in the popular media seems to assume when the fighting stops in the big cities it will all be over. The really difficult bit might just begin and the significance of the fighting for the Ukrainians will be how much it will corrode the Russian public's enthusiasm for a war they weren't consulted with. The ferocity of the Ukrainian resistance strongly suggests that they'll be willing to fight for some time after the cities are taken.
There is definitely something wrong with Putin’s head.
In fact, there has been a lot wrong with Russia’s invasion. They just sent their airborne in several times now in to hostile fire without control of the skies to be chopped up.
The same goes for the unprotected engineer trucks that got blown up close to the river dnieper or all the tanks that lacked infantery support and got blown up by javelins.
But I don't think Putin was the one behind the orders. It's not the proper line of command to let the president make such detailed orders. But someone really fucked up here.
The only theory I've read that makes sense is that Putin actually bought his own propaganda BS and truly thought that the Ukrainian military was weak with low morale/wanted to be part of Russia so would laid down their arms right after the Russkies rolled in to Ukraine. So he set a crazy short timeline of only a few days to take Kiev and decapitate the Ukraine government. So they weren't logistically prepared at all for a long war. So when they encountered far stiffer (and unexpected) Ukrainian resistance, they started falling way behind schedule and the generals had to start taking insane crazy risks (like sending support units or tanks down a road single file unprotected) as well as dropping paratroopers right on top of hostile ground forces without control of the skies.
And now they are sending special forces (elite light infantry) in to take Kharkiv without armor or artillery against (presumably) fortified positions. It's just so bonkers.
Putin's only realistic hope is to force Ukraine to accept a neutrality agreement like the one signed by Austria in 1955 to end the Soviet occupation or the neutrality Finland observed during the Cold War.
This invasion would then just be used to remind Ukraine of the cost of breaking that agreement.
It would be a limited gain from a limited war that would mark the end of NATO eastward expansion but allow Ukrainians to live freely in a Westernized society outside Russia's orbit. A fate citizens of Belarus would envy.
After this invasion, I don't see how Ukraine would agree to anything that, at the very least, allows them to import as many and as much weapons systems as they want.
The war already isn't very limited.
Russia also doesn't have the capacity to go on the offensive for more than a week or so more. They're already suffering a good amount of material losses. Their regular military (outside of artillery, which is still extremely devastating) has shown itself to be little better than some third-world powers with awful coordination and logistics. If nukes didn't exist, NATO would wipe the floor against this outfit. Also, in a nuke-free world (and if China had any imperial ambitions outside of Greater China), China could easily take over huge chunks of the Russian Far East right now.
That's right. So the question is, are Putin as well as the other people who would have to sign off on launching a nuke or nukes (including the peon who has to press the actual button) OK with turning Russia in to a radioactive post-apocalyptic wasteland?
Neutrality doesn't mean disarmament. Finland kept a very strong military during the Cold War, with over 3 squadrons (60+ aircraft) of F18s and 200+ German-made Leopard tanks.
Finland just didn't joint NATO or take part in joint exercises. Ukraine could, realistically, get a similar arrangement.
What is clear is that other options are not viable, like Ukraine joining NATO (so we would now all be at war with Russia), or becoming absorbed by Russia (leaving Putin with a massive insurgency and the risk of Russian soldiers switching sides in sympathy).
The West won't withdraw the economic sanctions even if Putin decided to call off the invasion right this second (and while they haven't yet, they can turn the Russian economy in to a basketcase with hyperinflation). They won't stop arming Ukraine to the teeth. The biggest problem will be inside Russia. Unlike the mass devastation and suffering wrought in Chechnya and Syria (which ordinary Russians care as much about is Trumpists about brown people in the Middle East), this is akin to an American President ordering American boys to die by the thousands to invade a peaceful Canada and turning Toronto in to Aleppo.
This whole mass invasion is so illogical and insane (which is why the vast majority of both Russians and Ukrainians dismissed the possibility), a lot of Russians (including key ones) will fear the stability of the mental state of Putin.
Maybe you're right and if Putin called off offensives right now, he can still manage to subdue Russia and remain in power (he'd have to get Russia close to what it was like under Stalin, though). But a bunch of underlings are already losing faith, and as of now, Russians don't fear Putin as much as Stalin and Kim in NK was/is feared.
I don't see SWIFT explusion as likely to cause hyperinflation in Russia. It would complicate the oil trade for Russia in the short-term but China's RMB-backed CIPs system is a possibly viable alternative. And let's not forget that oil/coal/nat. gas supplies are tight. Truly a "seller's market".
For example - if I take a look at this particular chart - it would seem that China would be happy to buy the Russian coal that presently makes its way to Germany:
Western countries now debating freezing Russia central bank assets. I'm not talking about SWIFT. There's more to go if Ukrainian civilian casualties pile up. It may be racist, but while plenty of westerners are willing to turn a blind eye to 5-7 figures of killed civilian brown people, I find that to be unlikely if we're talking about 5-7 figures of killed civilian white people in Europe.
I think this is right. In fact, given that Putin’s fate is now existentially linked to at the very least Ukrainian neutrality, it’s possibly the only option that doesn’t lead to a wider conflict. EU and NATO have to tread a fine line here. Especially difficult right now with the intense emotion swirling round.
I think my point here is that he has rolled the dice and tied his fate to succeeding at some level in Ukraine. And now he is signalling that he is prepared to go to next level which I don’t think is a bluff given how far he has gone already. Not hard to imagine a warning nuke going off above the North Sea. Where can I read your other comment on bluff?
Great analysis. Very thoughtful. The world community needs to realise tha appeasement of Putin would be a tragic mistake - not just for Ukraine, but for all of us. He is already threatening Finland and Sweden with reprisals should they have the temerity to join NATO. If you were in Georgia or Moldova you must be worried that Putin will thaw those frozen conflicts next.
It's also worth noting that the Russian and Belarus public has been told by the state news agencies that the fighting in Ukraine is being done by Nato troops (the "false flag" scenario). As this conflict draws out that narrative will be harder to defend. Source: conversations with Ukrainians.
Had Mr Putin negotiated for a neutral zone in the two eastern regions where the culture is significantly pro Russian, and as discussed with France, some form of stability would have been possible with the caveat that neither Russian troops nor arms were imported.
Instead he is prepared to sacrifice thousands of young people in both armed forces, and commit war crimes against civilians, to further no actual strategic end game.
43.2m people going about their daily business have been assaulted and provoked to respond. Given the potential of 5 to 10m people prepared to fight for their nation’s existence, this cannot end well for Mr Putin both domestically and internationally.
The end result may well be the repelling of the invaders, NATO then inviting the Ukraine to join and Mr Putin’s worst original scenario coming to pass but entirely self inflicted.
This would still end up with a final negotiation and a likely neutral zone solution but with ultra high tech weapons right on the borders of both sides. That cannot be a good position either.
The best he can do now is to withdraw, apologise to all the grieving families and the UN and retire from office.
His legacy is unlikely to be the one he coverts without the backing of young people in Russia and its neighbours. Young Russia is far more open in its outlook and tech savvy than these older generations understand. Young Russia wants peace, prosperity and the ability to travel and be welcome in a free and peaceful world not 20th century paranoia, bullying and corruption.
As time goes by the old guard, including Mr Putin, will fade out of the picture. Let’s hope this happens sooner rather than later. Withdraw, retire with some semblance of dignity, whether deserved or not and save tens of thousands of lives. Or am I being too rational?
Over 3,000 Russian citizens have already been detained for protesting against the war. Despite cutting various social media channels it may be impossible for the Kremlin to block all access to the Internet so Russian citizens will continue to see images and words from Ukraine. Also mothers of fallen Russian soldiers may very courageously start to publicly protest. Presumably after watching Putin's bizarre performances on national TV in the run up to this invasion there will be many Russians questioning both his judgement and sanity.
Of course so long as his internal security forces remain loyal he will survive but he may be suspicious of their loyalty.
Just like us the Russian people are sufficiently aware of their recent history to know how the Russian military have used artillery to conquer cities that put up resistance. They have at least some knowledge of what happened in Grozney, but probably less so about Aleppo. The potential physical destruction of central Kyiv would be a difficult challenge to present to Russian audiences. I'm no expert but surely there are cultural and spiritual attributes that Kyiv possess that are significant to many Russians?
Ukrainians and Russians are essentially relatives (and most Ukrainians are bilingual and speak Russian). Many Russians have relatives/friends in Ukraine as they were part of the same country not long ago. The revulsion and shock in Russia if they saw Kyiv being reduced to Grozny/Aleppo would be the same as you would see among Americans if we saw an American President order the US military to reduce Toronto to rubble for no good reason.
This is how strong nations-countries are built: with fire and blod! I bet Ukraine will overcome this dificult days and will be a free and a very strong country!
Very insightful article thank you for this Prof Freedman.
things that Putin miscalculated include
a) the social media amplifier effect.
b) thinking China will be friendly or the concept of my enemy's enemy is my friend is one that everyone subscribed to. The enemy of Russia's enemy (USA), China, is NOT Russia's friend. China has always been for itself and itself only. The Chinese are more driven by not having to 'kowtow' to anyone more than anything else. This may manifest itself as the Chinese want to be a superpower replacing America (which they may or may not harbour), for even if the Chinese did harbour such thoughts it would most certainly be a 'symptom rather than the root cause. The single driving force is self-determination. China is NOT for Russia, China is merely indifferent and doing what is in its own long-term best interest.
c) the current Z-generation (born between1997-2012) after the millennial generation is two generations removed from Putin's archaic, outdated, and strongman rule mentality.
d) Putin (communist residual/leftover mentality) that Ukraine if it is not owned and controlled by Russia, it must be owned or controlled by NATO. At no point, does another possibility exist that, Putin can or would contemplate, i.e- Ukraine is and wants to choose its path of self-determination, democracy, and sovereignty.
e) Zelensky is a capable leader, despite being a TV/funnyman. Putin would have been wise to remember that Ronald Regan (one of USA’s most highly regarded President in recent history) a Republican, was a Hollywood actor famous for cowboy movies before he became US President. Regan’s famous speeches include “General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization: Come here to this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” Regan was funny, endearing to everyone known for his sense of humor, and remembered for many of his one-liners and quips. It was Regan whom I learned this Russian proverb.. Doveryay, no proveryay, (Trust, but verify).Like Regan, Zelensky innately understood how to connect with the 'audience'. Channeling his inner Regan with the "I need ammo, not a ride" one-liner. This is something a dictator/autocrat like Putin would never consider or need. Reddit and social media are now exploding with Zelensky's "I need ammunition, not a ride" memes (I just ordered the T-shirt and hoodie, no joke!)
f) Putin thought a 2-year President of Ukraine who is a comedian and TV actor is an easy target... whom now the West and Europe is describing as a 'showing a masterclass in leadership' and making European leaders and EU look weak, Zelensky may be under the influence of the West, but he is surprising Western and EU leaders too (not just Putin and Russians)
When videos surfaced of Putin publicly humiliating his spy chief, he is well and truly in his echo chamber. I cannot help but notice the similarities between him and Hitler at that point. The subliminal visuals from that video spoke louder than the actual words and context (dressing down his spy chief). From Putin’s position at the table, relative distance to the rest of his cabinet/oligarch, the Presidential table, the way he spoke, his mannerisms, looking downward (a sign of superiority/contempt), his micro gestures, were all too eerily similar to Hitler.
Russians are intelligent and well-meaning and straightforward people, but Putin and his followers/leaders in Russia, by and large, embodies an administration/government that lacks depth, judgment, or wisdom which comes out of an accumulation of knowledge that comes out of human beings and human situations over a long period of time. That is lacking. It is not the Russian leader’s fault. The world, in the past century, has had only a few major (historically significant) experiences dealing with Russia/Soviets. They did not intend any harm in each one of them, but the tragedy was Russian/Soviets did real harm, to themselves, and the rest of the world).
First, (it was World War I) this is old stuff now.
Second, it was after World War II which Soviets fought so gallantly against Nazi Germany and suffered unspeakable casualties against an aggressor (Hitler). Yet the aftermath and end of WWII, the Soviets closed themselves off (due to Communism) setting the stage for the birth of NATO which we see the outcome today.
More recently, Crimea and now, the events in Ukraine.
It is for these reasons (though not exhaustive) that those of us who once regard Putin as a shrewd leader, now find that his rhetoric does not match his actions. Unfortunately, some of us now believe we over-estimated Putin’s statesmanship and ability as a world leader and underestimated the scale of his hubris, lack of wisdom, and judgment. As a quote that is often misattributed to Winston Churchill and John Maynard Keynes goes - “When the facts change, I change my mind, ”
“Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” If Putin cannot change his mind, the world certainly hopes Russians can change their mind on Putin as their leader.
Russia may be good at wars, but they are poor at occupation. Afghanistan and Chechnya comes to mind. Thousands of body bags returned to Russia. This will be the same...
I'm afraid the second Chechnyan occupation worked out rather well in the end. It's now ruled by Ramzan Kadyrov - who has described himself as "Putin's Footsolidier" in the past 24 hours and is actively contributing troops to the Ukraine invation.
1. Putin got a native Chechen who was both ruthless and managed to recruit other Chechens over to his side.
2. Chechnya doesn't border hostile countries that can ship/smuggle weapons in.
3. Chechnya is pretty small. Ukraine is a country the size of Texas/France with more people than California. I just don't see how Putin would be able to occupy all or even large parts of Ukraine successfully. Something like the various foreign occupations of Afghanistan would be the likelier outcome.
Reminds me of the war of 1812. Roughly 30 years separated, Maddison and others assumed the Canadians would give up and welcome advancing US forces. Instead it reminded Canadians what made them different and helped build a nation.
I lived in Donetsk in 2009-2010, as part of my degree. I taught English and my students were very pro-Russia, although also adamant they were Ukrainians and proud to be bilingual. Their parents sometimes had a stronger Russian identity but most were proud to say they were distinctively Ukrainian. In 2014 Russia's actions decisively turned them all into anti-Putin Ukrainians, painful for many due to family links to Russia. Desperately sad for Ukrainians today, a beautiful country (Donetsk - city of Roses!), great people and a potentially bright future. I hope they overcome.
Moral of the story: Nobody likes to be invaded or colonized. It’s a basic truism that a shockingly large portion of humanity somehow doesn’t understand.
That's kind of obvious I think. Don't know why both Russia and the US has failed to understand this in this era. I can understand that older cultures didn't understand it.
However the Orange revolution and the Euromaiden protests I found more interesting in this case. What happened in Ukraine that lead up to those events? And how did it affect pro-russian and pro-western sentiments?
Top 10 Putin Misunderstandings:
1. People all over the world are very connected to each other unlike any time in history.
2. There is a different global mindset from Putin’s generation.
3. Truth and misinformation are better revealed in the modern day.
4. Cameras show all
5. World Public Opinion Matters
6. Ukraine has been a free nation for 30-years 7. The under 30 year old Ukraine generation does not have a strong connection to Russia.
8. Aggression is not a sign of strength in 2022
9. Russian people do not agree
10. Accountability for the deaths and actions
Aggression never is a sign of stength
Don't forget...
11. You think the Ukrainians have forgotten the Holodomor?
I agree on all except of 6. Ukrainian politicians has been heavily influenced by Russia and the west. Politicians has been trained by both sides. Organisations has been funded by both Kreml and the US senate through NED. Both the orange revolution of 2004 and the Euromaiden protests of 2014 was supported by western powers.
Russia should have worked on more friendly relationships with the ukrainians instead of the political influence and invasions.
But how easy is it to turn the internet off in Kyiv i ask myself?
Or in Moscow.
Well we can’t bomb that. Power stations in ukraine are an easy target
I’m from Moscow, and I didn’t want this war ever to happen. With those of you who say “God save the Ukrainians” I agree, but I want to add: God, save the Russians too. What is now happening is a big disaster for all of us.
Great article. I always sided w/ Ukraine, but I admit I am surprised by my own feelings of...patriotism? What's the right word for feeling nationalism on someone else's behalf?...about this conflict. It's simply so outrageous and the initial defense so inspiring it's hard not to want to see a victorious Ukraine and reeling Russia.
From Morocco 🇲🇦 I thank you for enlightening analysis !
God save Ukrainians people 🙏
Great Article. I'm surprised the 'analysis' in the popular media seems to assume when the fighting stops in the big cities it will all be over. The really difficult bit might just begin and the significance of the fighting for the Ukrainians will be how much it will corrode the Russian public's enthusiasm for a war they weren't consulted with. The ferocity of the Ukrainian resistance strongly suggests that they'll be willing to fight for some time after the cities are taken.
There is definitely something wrong with Putin’s head.
In fact, there has been a lot wrong with Russia’s invasion. They just sent their airborne in several times now in to hostile fire without control of the skies to be chopped up.
The same goes for the unprotected engineer trucks that got blown up close to the river dnieper or all the tanks that lacked infantery support and got blown up by javelins.
But I don't think Putin was the one behind the orders. It's not the proper line of command to let the president make such detailed orders. But someone really fucked up here.
The only theory I've read that makes sense is that Putin actually bought his own propaganda BS and truly thought that the Ukrainian military was weak with low morale/wanted to be part of Russia so would laid down their arms right after the Russkies rolled in to Ukraine. So he set a crazy short timeline of only a few days to take Kiev and decapitate the Ukraine government. So they weren't logistically prepared at all for a long war. So when they encountered far stiffer (and unexpected) Ukrainian resistance, they started falling way behind schedule and the generals had to start taking insane crazy risks (like sending support units or tanks down a road single file unprotected) as well as dropping paratroopers right on top of hostile ground forces without control of the skies.
And now they are sending special forces (elite light infantry) in to take Kharkiv without armor or artillery against (presumably) fortified positions. It's just so bonkers.
Putin's only realistic hope is to force Ukraine to accept a neutrality agreement like the one signed by Austria in 1955 to end the Soviet occupation or the neutrality Finland observed during the Cold War.
This invasion would then just be used to remind Ukraine of the cost of breaking that agreement.
It would be a limited gain from a limited war that would mark the end of NATO eastward expansion but allow Ukrainians to live freely in a Westernized society outside Russia's orbit. A fate citizens of Belarus would envy.
After this invasion, I don't see how Ukraine would agree to anything that, at the very least, allows them to import as many and as much weapons systems as they want.
The war already isn't very limited.
Russia also doesn't have the capacity to go on the offensive for more than a week or so more. They're already suffering a good amount of material losses. Their regular military (outside of artillery, which is still extremely devastating) has shown itself to be little better than some third-world powers with awful coordination and logistics. If nukes didn't exist, NATO would wipe the floor against this outfit. Also, in a nuke-free world (and if China had any imperial ambitions outside of Greater China), China could easily take over huge chunks of the Russian Far East right now.
Except nukes do exist
That's right. So the question is, are Putin as well as the other people who would have to sign off on launching a nuke or nukes (including the peon who has to press the actual button) OK with turning Russia in to a radioactive post-apocalyptic wasteland?
Neutrality doesn't mean disarmament. Finland kept a very strong military during the Cold War, with over 3 squadrons (60+ aircraft) of F18s and 200+ German-made Leopard tanks.
Finland just didn't joint NATO or take part in joint exercises. Ukraine could, realistically, get a similar arrangement.
What is clear is that other options are not viable, like Ukraine joining NATO (so we would now all be at war with Russia), or becoming absorbed by Russia (leaving Putin with a massive insurgency and the risk of Russian soldiers switching sides in sympathy).
I think Putin is close to the point of no return.
The West won't withdraw the economic sanctions even if Putin decided to call off the invasion right this second (and while they haven't yet, they can turn the Russian economy in to a basketcase with hyperinflation). They won't stop arming Ukraine to the teeth. The biggest problem will be inside Russia. Unlike the mass devastation and suffering wrought in Chechnya and Syria (which ordinary Russians care as much about is Trumpists about brown people in the Middle East), this is akin to an American President ordering American boys to die by the thousands to invade a peaceful Canada and turning Toronto in to Aleppo.
This whole mass invasion is so illogical and insane (which is why the vast majority of both Russians and Ukrainians dismissed the possibility), a lot of Russians (including key ones) will fear the stability of the mental state of Putin.
Maybe you're right and if Putin called off offensives right now, he can still manage to subdue Russia and remain in power (he'd have to get Russia close to what it was like under Stalin, though). But a bunch of underlings are already losing faith, and as of now, Russians don't fear Putin as much as Stalin and Kim in NK was/is feared.
I feel that Putin is beyond the point of no return and that is what is becoming very scary...
I don't see SWIFT explusion as likely to cause hyperinflation in Russia. It would complicate the oil trade for Russia in the short-term but China's RMB-backed CIPs system is a possibly viable alternative. And let's not forget that oil/coal/nat. gas supplies are tight. Truly a "seller's market".
For example - if I take a look at this particular chart - it would seem that China would be happy to buy the Russian coal that presently makes its way to Germany:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
The point I am trying to make is that the economic pain would cut both ways.
Swift has 11,000 bank members. China RMB system has 300. Hardly a viable alternative
I won't dispute those numbers. But they can change and not all members are considered equal.
India also eyes Russian crude with great interest:
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/indian-refiners-are-snapping-up-cheap-russian-oil
and while India is no friend of China, they have relatively close ties with Russia.
Western countries now debating freezing Russia central bank assets. I'm not talking about SWIFT. There's more to go if Ukrainian civilian casualties pile up. It may be racist, but while plenty of westerners are willing to turn a blind eye to 5-7 figures of killed civilian brown people, I find that to be unlikely if we're talking about 5-7 figures of killed civilian white people in Europe.
I think this is right. In fact, given that Putin’s fate is now existentially linked to at the very least Ukrainian neutrality, it’s possibly the only option that doesn’t lead to a wider conflict. EU and NATO have to tread a fine line here. Especially difficult right now with the intense emotion swirling round.
In a greater conflict, his conventional forces would get spanked hard. And see my other response for why nuclear is a bluff.
I think my point here is that he has rolled the dice and tied his fate to succeeding at some level in Ukraine. And now he is signalling that he is prepared to go to next level which I don’t think is a bluff given how far he has gone already. Not hard to imagine a warning nuke going off above the North Sea. Where can I read your other comment on bluff?
Great analysis. Very thoughtful. The world community needs to realise tha appeasement of Putin would be a tragic mistake - not just for Ukraine, but for all of us. He is already threatening Finland and Sweden with reprisals should they have the temerity to join NATO. If you were in Georgia or Moldova you must be worried that Putin will thaw those frozen conflicts next.
It's also worth noting that the Russian and Belarus public has been told by the state news agencies that the fighting in Ukraine is being done by Nato troops (the "false flag" scenario). As this conflict draws out that narrative will be harder to defend. Source: conversations with Ukrainians.
Had Mr Putin negotiated for a neutral zone in the two eastern regions where the culture is significantly pro Russian, and as discussed with France, some form of stability would have been possible with the caveat that neither Russian troops nor arms were imported.
Instead he is prepared to sacrifice thousands of young people in both armed forces, and commit war crimes against civilians, to further no actual strategic end game.
43.2m people going about their daily business have been assaulted and provoked to respond. Given the potential of 5 to 10m people prepared to fight for their nation’s existence, this cannot end well for Mr Putin both domestically and internationally.
The end result may well be the repelling of the invaders, NATO then inviting the Ukraine to join and Mr Putin’s worst original scenario coming to pass but entirely self inflicted.
This would still end up with a final negotiation and a likely neutral zone solution but with ultra high tech weapons right on the borders of both sides. That cannot be a good position either.
The best he can do now is to withdraw, apologise to all the grieving families and the UN and retire from office.
His legacy is unlikely to be the one he coverts without the backing of young people in Russia and its neighbours. Young Russia is far more open in its outlook and tech savvy than these older generations understand. Young Russia wants peace, prosperity and the ability to travel and be welcome in a free and peaceful world not 20th century paranoia, bullying and corruption.
As time goes by the old guard, including Mr Putin, will fade out of the picture. Let’s hope this happens sooner rather than later. Withdraw, retire with some semblance of dignity, whether deserved or not and save tens of thousands of lives. Or am I being too rational?
Over 3,000 Russian citizens have already been detained for protesting against the war. Despite cutting various social media channels it may be impossible for the Kremlin to block all access to the Internet so Russian citizens will continue to see images and words from Ukraine. Also mothers of fallen Russian soldiers may very courageously start to publicly protest. Presumably after watching Putin's bizarre performances on national TV in the run up to this invasion there will be many Russians questioning both his judgement and sanity.
Of course so long as his internal security forces remain loyal he will survive but he may be suspicious of their loyalty.
Just like us the Russian people are sufficiently aware of their recent history to know how the Russian military have used artillery to conquer cities that put up resistance. They have at least some knowledge of what happened in Grozney, but probably less so about Aleppo. The potential physical destruction of central Kyiv would be a difficult challenge to present to Russian audiences. I'm no expert but surely there are cultural and spiritual attributes that Kyiv possess that are significant to many Russians?
Ukrainians and Russians are essentially relatives (and most Ukrainians are bilingual and speak Russian). Many Russians have relatives/friends in Ukraine as they were part of the same country not long ago. The revulsion and shock in Russia if they saw Kyiv being reduced to Grozny/Aleppo would be the same as you would see among Americans if we saw an American President order the US military to reduce Toronto to rubble for no good reason.
This is how strong nations-countries are built: with fire and blod! I bet Ukraine will overcome this dificult days and will be a free and a very strong country!
Very insightful article thank you for this Prof Freedman.
things that Putin miscalculated include
a) the social media amplifier effect.
b) thinking China will be friendly or the concept of my enemy's enemy is my friend is one that everyone subscribed to. The enemy of Russia's enemy (USA), China, is NOT Russia's friend. China has always been for itself and itself only. The Chinese are more driven by not having to 'kowtow' to anyone more than anything else. This may manifest itself as the Chinese want to be a superpower replacing America (which they may or may not harbour), for even if the Chinese did harbour such thoughts it would most certainly be a 'symptom rather than the root cause. The single driving force is self-determination. China is NOT for Russia, China is merely indifferent and doing what is in its own long-term best interest.
c) the current Z-generation (born between1997-2012) after the millennial generation is two generations removed from Putin's archaic, outdated, and strongman rule mentality.
d) Putin (communist residual/leftover mentality) that Ukraine if it is not owned and controlled by Russia, it must be owned or controlled by NATO. At no point, does another possibility exist that, Putin can or would contemplate, i.e- Ukraine is and wants to choose its path of self-determination, democracy, and sovereignty.
e) Zelensky is a capable leader, despite being a TV/funnyman. Putin would have been wise to remember that Ronald Regan (one of USA’s most highly regarded President in recent history) a Republican, was a Hollywood actor famous for cowboy movies before he became US President. Regan’s famous speeches include “General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization: Come here to this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” Regan was funny, endearing to everyone known for his sense of humor, and remembered for many of his one-liners and quips. It was Regan whom I learned this Russian proverb.. Doveryay, no proveryay, (Trust, but verify).Like Regan, Zelensky innately understood how to connect with the 'audience'. Channeling his inner Regan with the "I need ammo, not a ride" one-liner. This is something a dictator/autocrat like Putin would never consider or need. Reddit and social media are now exploding with Zelensky's "I need ammunition, not a ride" memes (I just ordered the T-shirt and hoodie, no joke!)
f) Putin thought a 2-year President of Ukraine who is a comedian and TV actor is an easy target... whom now the West and Europe is describing as a 'showing a masterclass in leadership' and making European leaders and EU look weak, Zelensky may be under the influence of the West, but he is surprising Western and EU leaders too (not just Putin and Russians)
When videos surfaced of Putin publicly humiliating his spy chief, he is well and truly in his echo chamber. I cannot help but notice the similarities between him and Hitler at that point. The subliminal visuals from that video spoke louder than the actual words and context (dressing down his spy chief). From Putin’s position at the table, relative distance to the rest of his cabinet/oligarch, the Presidential table, the way he spoke, his mannerisms, looking downward (a sign of superiority/contempt), his micro gestures, were all too eerily similar to Hitler.
Russians are intelligent and well-meaning and straightforward people, but Putin and his followers/leaders in Russia, by and large, embodies an administration/government that lacks depth, judgment, or wisdom which comes out of an accumulation of knowledge that comes out of human beings and human situations over a long period of time. That is lacking. It is not the Russian leader’s fault. The world, in the past century, has had only a few major (historically significant) experiences dealing with Russia/Soviets. They did not intend any harm in each one of them, but the tragedy was Russian/Soviets did real harm, to themselves, and the rest of the world).
First, (it was World War I) this is old stuff now.
Second, it was after World War II which Soviets fought so gallantly against Nazi Germany and suffered unspeakable casualties against an aggressor (Hitler). Yet the aftermath and end of WWII, the Soviets closed themselves off (due to Communism) setting the stage for the birth of NATO which we see the outcome today.
More recently, Crimea and now, the events in Ukraine.
It is for these reasons (though not exhaustive) that those of us who once regard Putin as a shrewd leader, now find that his rhetoric does not match his actions. Unfortunately, some of us now believe we over-estimated Putin’s statesmanship and ability as a world leader and underestimated the scale of his hubris, lack of wisdom, and judgment. As a quote that is often misattributed to Winston Churchill and John Maynard Keynes goes - “When the facts change, I change my mind, ”
“Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” If Putin cannot change his mind, the world certainly hopes Russians can change their mind on Putin as their leader.
Russia may be good at wars, but they are poor at occupation. Afghanistan and Chechnya comes to mind. Thousands of body bags returned to Russia. This will be the same...
I'm afraid the second Chechnyan occupation worked out rather well in the end. It's now ruled by Ramzan Kadyrov - who has described himself as "Putin's Footsolidier" in the past 24 hours and is actively contributing troops to the Ukraine invation.
It worked only because
1. Putin got a native Chechen who was both ruthless and managed to recruit other Chechens over to his side.
2. Chechnya doesn't border hostile countries that can ship/smuggle weapons in.
3. Chechnya is pretty small. Ukraine is a country the size of Texas/France with more people than California. I just don't see how Putin would be able to occupy all or even large parts of Ukraine successfully. Something like the various foreign occupations of Afghanistan would be the likelier outcome.
I'll concede some good points there.
But I would seriously question the willingness of Poland and Romania to allow weapons smuggling into the Ukraine after this war.
Egypt and Isreal can't even stop weapons to Gaza.
The key consideration here is that Egypt scarecely tries.
And you think Poland/etc. would try?
They're sending weapons to Ukraine right now.
Reminds me of the war of 1812. Roughly 30 years separated, Maddison and others assumed the Canadians would give up and welcome advancing US forces. Instead it reminded Canadians what made them different and helped build a nation.