It has become a cliché to say that this is an unusually dangerous time in world politics. The list of threats to help make the point has become familiar: Russia, persisting with its aggression in Ukraine and menacing all its European neighbours; China, reminding Taiwan that reunification is bound to come, if necessary by force; Iran, close to a nuclear capability and stirring up trouble around the Middle East and elsewhere; North Korea, developing its weapons of mass destruction.
Thoughtful and deep an analysis from which I draw the following conclusions: 1) This is only an Axis premised on distaste for perceived US and EU hegemony. 2) Each state within the so-called axis is acting on it regional self interest and not actively or implicitly coordinating actions. 3) Russia is increasingly becoming a vassal state to China economically and politically. 4) The US needs to reach out to other partners in the Indo-Pacific like India, Indonesia, Vietnam to counter China. 5) the so-called axis can be easily splintered given their own local conditions and situations.
It is the last point that needs to be explored and exploited. Iran is a mess domestically both economically and simmering social political unrest. China has its own economic problems that could lead to popular unrest with a real estate bust and higher unemployment. And currently, Russia and NKorea are wholly dependent on China and increasingly so.
I, for one, do not see the die being cast as there are too many moving parts to draw that conclusion just yet. But ramping up defensive and military capabilities in the US/EU is a prudent move along with onshoring key manufacturing will help prepare for any contingency.
I think you make a good point on how apparently fragile the axis is, but the I think the West is equally internally riven. The policies of western governments over the last 50 years or so have had the effect of so dividing their own electorates that the West is in no position to exploit this fragility. If anything it is the West that is being exploited. I’d be interested in seeing a similar analysis of the position of the West.
As usual a very insightful, multi-dimensional analysis. The one thing that worries more than anything coming from the so-called "axis" countries is the rot that is setting into the West, of which the USA is the prime and most dangerous example. The very possible re-election of Donald Trump could spell the end of democracy as we know it, for numerous reasons both domestic and international. In Europe there is a far-right resurgence taking place, the most obvious evidence of which is the shrieking melon-head in Italy (Hungary I don't even count - it has no democratic tradition, so it was easy for Orban to sell his nationalist agenda). Elections are close at hand in Europe and the polls indicate the far right may do very well, further undermining democracy if the polls prove correct. Our ignorant, under-educated electorates are the biggest problem facing the survival of democracy as we know it.
Perhaps if the highly educated Western Elites actually engaged with their “ignorant, under-educated electorates” and at least met with them halfway in addressing their concerns, the gap which the far right are exploiting would not exist. Hilary Clinton should have won the 2016 election, but when you decide to write off a quarter of your potential electorate by calling them “deplorables” instead of engaging with their not totally unreasonable desire to have a decent future for themselves and their own children, you pretty much drive them into the arms of your opponent. Trump knew how to exploit that position and promptly did so. The whole point about democracy is that it represents the collective will of all the electorate, both the “poorest he” and the “greatest he”. One of the major problems in the West is that the Elites have totally lost connection to the wider electorate. They have accumulated both wealth and power to themselves out of the situation, but essentially as a zero sum game, with the wider electorate paying the costs. Rather than blaming the electorate, perhaps the Elites should take a cold hard look in the mirror at the part they are playing in fragmenting the West at a time of increasing instability.
I agree with you - the constructs and systems those elites largely fashioned and control have played a large part in the under-education of so many people. I think the reasons for it go beyond greed.
I’m not sure this is just a question of education. My starting point is that there is no one true answer when dealing with the politics. Individual people are best placed to decide what is in their interests. The art of politics is to navigate those competing interests to find a stable, workable consensus. Education helps only insofar as it allows us to determine the best “means” towards our own personal “ends”. The problem here is that the “ends” of the elite have become utterly disconnected from, and antithetical to, those of the majority of ordinary people. The failure of our elites is they have eschewed finding that stable consensus, in favour of settling for an unstable one that aligns with their own views.
I agree - not only a question of education, but education is an important part of the whole construct. To sustain the kind of wealth and opportunity gaps that have so many people disgruntled and turned-off one needs a compliant population, which means having a large share of the population that isn't particularly well-equipped to challenge the social control the elites have over how people think and what they are prepared to tolerate; if you had too many smart people challenging all of this it wouldn't work for them. Elitism is a relative concept insofar as it only exists if there are those who are not, so the system needs the latter to sustain the former. Perhaps the most extreme example of this kind of distinction was the social engineering that existed in the education system of Apartheid South Africa. Fortunately that was an extreme case, and interesting to note it failed the test of time, which gives one hope for our situations if we don't allow the current crop of American Republicans and European right-wing extremists to destroy us in the meanwhile.
If I have understood correctly, your argument is that we need a better educated electorate that is enabled to challenge the system that the current elites are exploiting to maintain the wealth and opportunity gaps. Assuming that is correct, I think we do agree, the better able the electorate is engage and shape the outcome to one that is commands greater acceptance by the electorate as a whole, the more stable that system would be. I suspect that would also tend to have a less extreme distribution of resources.
I’d also agree that such an electorate would be more able to see through the disingenuous statements of politicians who try to exploit them.
The key to that type of education is to reach the tools of thought, how to think, not what to think.
I’d be interested in your assessment of China’s future ambitions towards Siberia and other “lost territories”, with the claims of the initial 1919 Karakhan Manifesto as possible justification…
Vladivostok is the only lost, Chinese territory still under foreign control. China recently made an agreement with Russia so that China have access to the port for transport of goods within China.
Thoughtful and deep an analysis from which I draw the following conclusions: 1) This is only an Axis premised on distaste for perceived US and EU hegemony. 2) Each state within the so-called axis is acting on it regional self interest and not actively or implicitly coordinating actions. 3) Russia is increasingly becoming a vassal state to China economically and politically. 4) The US needs to reach out to other partners in the Indo-Pacific like India, Indonesia, Vietnam to counter China. 5) the so-called axis can be easily splintered given their own local conditions and situations.
It is the last point that needs to be explored and exploited. Iran is a mess domestically both economically and simmering social political unrest. China has its own economic problems that could lead to popular unrest with a real estate bust and higher unemployment. And currently, Russia and NKorea are wholly dependent on China and increasingly so.
I, for one, do not see the die being cast as there are too many moving parts to draw that conclusion just yet. But ramping up defensive and military capabilities in the US/EU is a prudent move along with onshoring key manufacturing will help prepare for any contingency.
I think you make a good point on how apparently fragile the axis is, but the I think the West is equally internally riven. The policies of western governments over the last 50 years or so have had the effect of so dividing their own electorates that the West is in no position to exploit this fragility. If anything it is the West that is being exploited. I’d be interested in seeing a similar analysis of the position of the West.
As usual a very insightful, multi-dimensional analysis. The one thing that worries more than anything coming from the so-called "axis" countries is the rot that is setting into the West, of which the USA is the prime and most dangerous example. The very possible re-election of Donald Trump could spell the end of democracy as we know it, for numerous reasons both domestic and international. In Europe there is a far-right resurgence taking place, the most obvious evidence of which is the shrieking melon-head in Italy (Hungary I don't even count - it has no democratic tradition, so it was easy for Orban to sell his nationalist agenda). Elections are close at hand in Europe and the polls indicate the far right may do very well, further undermining democracy if the polls prove correct. Our ignorant, under-educated electorates are the biggest problem facing the survival of democracy as we know it.
Perhaps if the highly educated Western Elites actually engaged with their “ignorant, under-educated electorates” and at least met with them halfway in addressing their concerns, the gap which the far right are exploiting would not exist. Hilary Clinton should have won the 2016 election, but when you decide to write off a quarter of your potential electorate by calling them “deplorables” instead of engaging with their not totally unreasonable desire to have a decent future for themselves and their own children, you pretty much drive them into the arms of your opponent. Trump knew how to exploit that position and promptly did so. The whole point about democracy is that it represents the collective will of all the electorate, both the “poorest he” and the “greatest he”. One of the major problems in the West is that the Elites have totally lost connection to the wider electorate. They have accumulated both wealth and power to themselves out of the situation, but essentially as a zero sum game, with the wider electorate paying the costs. Rather than blaming the electorate, perhaps the Elites should take a cold hard look in the mirror at the part they are playing in fragmenting the West at a time of increasing instability.
I agree with you - the constructs and systems those elites largely fashioned and control have played a large part in the under-education of so many people. I think the reasons for it go beyond greed.
I’m not sure this is just a question of education. My starting point is that there is no one true answer when dealing with the politics. Individual people are best placed to decide what is in their interests. The art of politics is to navigate those competing interests to find a stable, workable consensus. Education helps only insofar as it allows us to determine the best “means” towards our own personal “ends”. The problem here is that the “ends” of the elite have become utterly disconnected from, and antithetical to, those of the majority of ordinary people. The failure of our elites is they have eschewed finding that stable consensus, in favour of settling for an unstable one that aligns with their own views.
I agree - not only a question of education, but education is an important part of the whole construct. To sustain the kind of wealth and opportunity gaps that have so many people disgruntled and turned-off one needs a compliant population, which means having a large share of the population that isn't particularly well-equipped to challenge the social control the elites have over how people think and what they are prepared to tolerate; if you had too many smart people challenging all of this it wouldn't work for them. Elitism is a relative concept insofar as it only exists if there are those who are not, so the system needs the latter to sustain the former. Perhaps the most extreme example of this kind of distinction was the social engineering that existed in the education system of Apartheid South Africa. Fortunately that was an extreme case, and interesting to note it failed the test of time, which gives one hope for our situations if we don't allow the current crop of American Republicans and European right-wing extremists to destroy us in the meanwhile.
If I have understood correctly, your argument is that we need a better educated electorate that is enabled to challenge the system that the current elites are exploiting to maintain the wealth and opportunity gaps. Assuming that is correct, I think we do agree, the better able the electorate is engage and shape the outcome to one that is commands greater acceptance by the electorate as a whole, the more stable that system would be. I suspect that would also tend to have a less extreme distribution of resources.
I’d also agree that such an electorate would be more able to see through the disingenuous statements of politicians who try to exploit them.
The key to that type of education is to reach the tools of thought, how to think, not what to think.
Indeed.
I’d be interested in your assessment of China’s future ambitions towards Siberia and other “lost territories”, with the claims of the initial 1919 Karakhan Manifesto as possible justification…
Thank you for your thoughtful analysis.
Vladivostok is the only lost, Chinese territory still under foreign control. China recently made an agreement with Russia so that China have access to the port for transport of goods within China.
Bush's speech was 2002, not 2022 😀
Oops. I'll correct.
It was already correct?
I read the article in the email initially but now using the substack app
How odd. I'm also seeing "Far far will they go to support each other?"
End of paragraph six
There you are correct! That has now been changed. Thank you.
I'm seeing "The idea of an Axis briefly reappeared in President George W Bush’s ‘Axis of Evil’ speech of January 2022."
Strange. Its correct on my version.
Because I corrected it earlier :-)
Now it says 2002!