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Andrew Sabisky's avatar

It really makes no sense to cite Net Zero as an example of successful mission-driven government. In fact it is a perfect warning of the risks of taking giant risks in the pursuit of adopting huge goals without really thinking it through. The single-minded focus on decarbonizing the power sector has come at a painful economic cost, with cripplingly high electricity prices for household and industry largely due to the subsidies paid for generation plus a huge increase in transmission costs over the last decade. The results are gradual deindustrialization and offshored emissions. Now the government is scrambling to save what's left of power-intensive industry by offering those consumers large discounts on electricity prices, with households making up the difference.

But just as importantly, the high electricity prices actually undermine decarbonization itself. The only way you get to a somewhat decarbonized society is mass electrification. High electricity prices turn electricity into a boutique product that no one wants to use. We already see this dynamic playing out with heat pumps. Heat pumps are a fine technology that the government is forced to pay households £7500 each to install mostly because electricity prices are so high that households are generally better off sticking with gas. From 2025 to 2028 the state is in theory going to spend well over a billion on heat pump subsidies alone.

NB it could very have been different. Chinese policymakers I think realized that mass electrification if anything makes more sense as a first priority, because decarbonizing the grid is very very difficult and will take a long time, particularly in an industrialized society where you have a very large block of inelastic demand that has to be met 24/7.

The whole thing is such a disaster that it makes old-school British mission failures like Concorde and the AGR nuclear reactor series look like huge successes. Concorde at least produced a plane that flew. BA even made some modest operating profits, once all the capital costs of building the planes had been written off. The AGR reactors were built, produced electricity, eventually worked tolerably well, and indeed some are still operating today. Net Zero has just straightforwardly made Britain worse off without making even a dent in global emissions, which are the thing that actually matters for the climate. Nor is Britain even showcasing what economically viable deep decarbonization looks like: decarbonization here is both shallow and expensive.

On a separate note, I think the assumptions here about healthcare are somewhat lazy. It is not obviously true that the UK needs to spend more prevention or that today's biggest healthcare challenges relate to diet or chronic conditions. A&E waiting times are quite plausibly the single biggest cause of avoidable mortality out there (https://policyskeptic.blogspot.com/2025/05/a-waits-might-be-biggest-cause-of.html), and we have known for many many years that A&E performance is largely uncorrelated with A&E demand, although NHSE management has for years stuck its collective head in the sand and tried endless failed schemes aimed at reducing A&E demand rather than actually trying to improve performance.

tl;dr you can't do mission government without a real analytic function in government that actually picks apart the problems you're trying to solve. Instead governments very often act as though ends and means have already been decided and so all the subsequent analysis they do get is completely warped by this. I've been to a few Electricity System Operator stakeholder events and they are fairly upfront about the consequences of the state's chosen policy pathway, but just regard it as something unavoidable that they have to deal with.

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Stuart Attewell (Paris, Fr)'s avatar

Fine words and the best of intentions but..........! In France, despite all his generalized failings, Macron has had one mission success.....he rebuilt Notre Dame in 5 years. How did he do it when it took 200 years to build it in the first place? He put an excellent General in charge, protected him from political pressure, freed him from regulations and bureaucratic obstacles, let him hire whom he needed, used private funding.......and let him get on with it.

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