Who will blink first?

There was a famous moment during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when news came through to President Kennedy and his advisors that the Soviet ships they feared were about to challenge the US blockade of Cuba had turned away. Recalling a childhood game when he and his friends would try to outstare each other, Secretary of State Dean Rusk observed: ‘We’re eyeball to eyeball and I think the other fellow just blinked.’

As it happens the blinking had occurred sometime before. Almost as soon as Moscow learned of the blockade it ordered Soviet ships to stay clear. Contrary to the apprehensions of Kennedy and his advisors, by the time Rusk made his comment all Soviet ships were far away from the quarantine line. Nor was that the moment of greatest danger. There was more blinking to be done before the crisis was over. The big test was getting the Soviet missiles out of Cuba. Nonetheless, this moment showed that the crisis was potentially manageable and that the Soviets were wary about escalation.

There is not one but two blockades currently in place in the Strait of Hormuz. The first, imposed by the Iranians in response to the initial US-Israeli strikes, effectively shut the Strait. They did, however, intend to allow their own and favoured ships through, as well as those prepared to pay a toll to Tehran. This led to the second blockade, this time imposed by the Trump administration, intended to deny Iran these benefits. Both blockades are being enforced, with merchant ships fired upon and Iranian vessels seized.

In 1962 the world watched the developing crisis in the Caribbean with anxiety. Everything was dependent upon decisions being made by a few people in Washington and Moscow. If the crisis got out of hand then all would suffer the consequences of what could be a nuclear war. In 2026 the world watches a contest of wills between Tehran and Washington, also with anxiety. Much economic damage has already been done: the longer the standoff the greater the prospective chaos.

For the standoff to end both sides must blink together to end their respective blockades. That might have happened on 17 April when Iran announced that the Strait was open. Trump welcomed the move but still decided to keep his blockade going to demonstrate that the US had the upper hand. Iran immediately reimposed its blockade. Trump appeared to think that it would add to the pressure on Iran if it could not export its oil. It would have to keep more in storage tanks, which would soon fill up, and shut its oil wells. This has not happened.

The formal positions of the two sides in terms of peace negotiations still seem to be far apart. Yet Trump on Tuesday suggested that ‘tremendous progress’ was being made towards a deal. Now we have been here many times before with Trump claiming some imminent breakthrough only for it to turn out that the progress has largely been in his imagination. From the start Trump’s utterances on this war have sown confusion and got in the way of serious peace-making. (The Washington Post has a useful compilation of his many and inconsistent claims on the timeline of the war and the likely prospects for peace).

Yet this latest burst of optimism from Trump has been combined with statements to the effect that the active stage of the war is over. After looking at whether Trump has now started blinking, I’ll consider in this post the incentives for the Iranians to do some blinking of their own, and the possibility that the Strait might be opened soon.