What would President Harris mean for the world?

After Joe Biden’s disastrous presidential debate, the failed assassination attempt, and a choreographed Republican National Convention, a second term for Donald Trump appeared close to inevitable. Governments of friendly, hostile, and neutral countries, barely recovered from the disorder of his first term, began to dust down their coping mechanisms.

In addition to Trump’s personal traits, there were more substantive issues to worry about, not least his attitudes towards free trade and alliances. European governments worried about whether there would be a strong turn away from NATO, and an unjust deal imposed on Ukraine. This fear grew once J D Vance became the Vice-Presidential nominee given his known hostility to providing more support.

As it is still quite possible that Trump will achieve his second term it would be premature to abandon precautionary planning and assessments of what might Trump do once back in the White House. (Here is my own contribution). But over the past couple of weeks the election campaign has been transformed by Biden’s decision to step aside and the speed with which Kamala Harris was able to step in and secure the Democratic Party’s nomination. With some help from her opponents she has reversed the polls and has moved November’s contest from a clear Trump win to a toss-up.

With her party’s convention to come the momentum is on her side. As we have seen already during this extraordinary year in American politics, much can happen over the coming months. There are some jitters around the economy.  Harris has yet to be fully tested in interviews and debates. Nonetheless, having spent so much time wondering about the meaning of a returning President Trump it is not unreasonable to start thinking about the implications of a President Harris.

The New Dynamics

This is not just about anticipating what could happen in 2025. The changing dynamics of the race have immediate consequences. Here are three.