What if Trump Wins?

According to the Secretary of Defence, Grant Shapps, we are in a ‘pre-war’ period. The growing sense of alarm reflects the challenging situation in Ukraine, the intense militarization of Russia, as well as tensions with Iran and China. Over the past four years the UK government has made two big boosts to defence spending – in 2020 and last year – in addition to aid to Ukraine, but because of the perilous nature of the international environment, it is now under pressure to commit more. It has promised to move from the current 2.2% of GDP to an eventual 2.5%. According to Shapps the next parliament will need to set a target of 3%. Yet Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said in his budget speech that more money will only be found when ‘economic conditions allow.’

To state the obvious, economic conditions maybe out of synch with international conditions. If the situation is so urgent then we really should not wait. Two government ministers –Anne-Marie Trevelyan of the FCDO and Security Minister Tom Tugendhat- have publicly urged that more resources be found as soon as possible.

‘We cannot turn on the complex platforms and weapons which ensure military advantage overnight. We must start that growth now, invest at pace to support our allies and stay ahead of our adversaries.’

The challenge in Europe, however, is not just one of ensuring sufficient military strength to keep Russia in check but also one of holding the alliance together. Both challenges are likely to require increased defence spending - to help keep the Russians out and the Americans in.

Europe’s anxious security debates have been prompted by the possibility that Donald Trump will return to power after next November’s presidential elections. The outcome is hard to predict. The reliability of the polls, the impact of legal cases, and the health of both candidates are all relevant. Events can unfold in surprising ways. All one can say is that Trump’s return is sufficiently possible for it to deserve serious thought. In an earlier post I discussed what this might mean for nuclear deterrence, and in particular the UK’s nuclear capability. In this post I consider European options for coping with a second Trump administration, and what role the UK can play.