Two steps backward

‘I mean, that’s what I do. I do deals. My whole life is deals. That’s all I know is deals.’

- Donald Trump in meeting with President Macron, 25 February 2025

‘Those who want respect, give respect.’

- Tony Soprano in The Sopranos, Season 2, Episode 12

‘This is going to make great television.’ Trump’s assessment of the bad-tempered encounter with Ukraine’s President Zelensky in the Oval Office, was a telling remark after what appeared to be a setback for his efforts to mastermind a peace deal to end the Russo-Ukraine War. In front of the cameras Zelensky offered Trump insufficient respect and gratitude and for that he was shown the White House door, with a prepared deal on raw materials left unsigned and a scheduled press conference abandoned.

What happens next depends on whether it suits Trump to restore relations with Zelensky, or whether he has been cast out never to return. If Trump really craves a deal and an end to the bloodshed then Zelensky will be back. Much depends on the degree of dramatic tension that best suits his purposes.

The Trump administration is a soap opera. The president is the producer and the star, responsible for the plot lines, the script, and the cast (all of whom are chosen to look the part). If a plot line works, such as a drive for a Nobel-Prize winning peace deal, then it will be developed and might run for many episodes. Otherwise it will be quietly dropped, or may just peter out. The purpose of every episode is to demonstrate the star’s brilliance. The reason why this story has yet to run its course is the main theme of the Trump soap opera: that the star is especially brilliant when it comes to making deals.

A soap opera around deal-making faces problems when it is played out in the real world. Actual negotiations, about vital interests, tangible commitments and uncertain risks, are often complex and time consuming. They involve pesky details that end up being discussed at length and do not fit well into the soap opera format. Most importantly deals happen with other individuals and organisations who have their own agency and prefer to write their own lines and may also fancy themselves as deal-makers. They provide Trump’s scripts with its drama, for they must be flattered into concessions, as with Putin, or bullied into submission, as with Zelensky. If it turns out the details are too difficult, and the time horizons too long, or the designated villains and suckers too resilient, then Trump must decide whether to persevere, amend the script, or move on to another deal.

Four Meetings and an Expulsion

On four occasions over the past week Ukraine was discussed in front of the cameras with the President dominating the discussion each time. There was an adulatory meeting with his Cabinet, relatively cordial conversations with European leaders Macron and Starmer, and then the concluding, stormy meeting with Zelensky.

We should keep in mind that the narrative a week ago was not dissimilar to the one today. In the build-up to the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the statements and actions of Trump Administration conveyed the impression that it was prepared to betray a country that has been the victim of a cruel aggression and lose an effective alliance that has lasted for 75 years. A particular low point was reached in the vote in the UN General Assembly when the US refused to back the routine resolution condemning Russia’s aggression.