The Wrong Sort of Power

Iran, Syria, and the Vulnerability of Autocracies

Syrian rebel fighters by the burning grave of former President Hafez al-Assad, father of Bashar al-Assad (Photo by AAREF WATAD/AFP via Getty Images)

‘Ye have ploughed wickedness, ye have reaped iniquity; ye have eaten the fruit of lies: because thou didst trust in thy way, in the multitude of thy mighty men.’

- Hosea, 10:13

There is a clear line from the 1979 Iranian Revolution to the 2024 Syrian Revolution, which leaves open the question of whether there is a potential line to yet another Iranian revolution, this one overthrowing the victors of 45 years ago.

The sudden collapse of the Assad regime is one of those ‘in retrospect it was inevitable but no one saw it coming’ moments. Exactly where it leaves Syria is still unclear, so it is also one of those ‘the future is uncertain, but one thing is for sure, things will never be the same again’ moments.

As Russia and Iran were Bashar al-Assad’s most vital backers, we can be reasonably confident that for now both are the big losers. After a decade of substantial investment in Syria, Russia has nothing to show for it other than Assad himself, now taking up residence in Moscow. It is abandoning its air base in Syria, probably its naval base, and in practice its aspirations to be a major player in Middle Eastern affairs, with only its position in Libya to cling on to.

Iran’s investment goes back even further, and its setback is even greater. This comes at the end of a disastrous year for the defining feature of its foreign policy – its ‘axis of resistance’ drawing on radical Shi’ite groups throughout the region, including in Iraq and Yemen, but with Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Assad in Syria as the key components.

This post opens by looking back at the Iranian Revolution of 1979, and then at how the ‘Axis of Resistance’ developed and fell apart. It concludes by looking at what the future holds for Syria and whether revolution could prove contagious given the vulnerabilities of the current Iranian regime.