The war beyond the frontlines

Assessing Ukranian and Russian strategies for long-range attacks

The longer the Russo-Ukraine war goes on the more it turns on questions of sustainability. The fight for territory continues as both sides probe for weak points and try new tactics and technologies. But increasingly substantial resources are directed at strikes against economic and social targets, seeking to weaken resolve and capacity. Each side is causing the other pain, and the pain will only get worse. The question for both governments is whether the pain is sufficient to cause a reappraisal of strategy or a readiness to change their conditions for accepting a ceasefire.

The Russians have air superiority. Their assaults on Ukraine well exceed the number of attacks in the other direction. In July Moscow launched a daily average of 172 strikes on Ukraine, compared to 28 on average launched by Ukraine. The recent Russian attacks have been particularly intense (one on Kyiv on 5 August is pictured above).

In a statement on 9 August President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia had launched 61 missiles – including 56 with ballistic trajectories – more than 1,560 attack drones and 1,540 guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian cities just over the past week. July was the deadliest month for civilian casualties since 2022. At least 1,396 civilians were killed and 7,978 wounded in the first half of this year, up by well over a third on the first half of 2025.

Ukraine will have to absorb more intense and deadly Russian missile attacks over the coming months. At the same time, however, it has found new ways to cause pain for Russians, targeting not just energy infrastructure but other economic bottlenecks.

In the rest of this post I’ll discuss the similar but still distinctive strategies being followed by both sides as they try to make life unbearable for their opponents.