The US no longer leads

The changing context for UK defence policy

One of the most important tasks of political leaders at times of crisis is to explain to the public the seriousness of the situation and possible courses of action. Perhaps the government assumes that the nature of the current crisis is self-evident, that it is understood that so long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the conditions of life not only in the UK but around the world will worsen.

The future of US-Iranian negotiations remains clouded in uncertainty but even if an agreement on the Strait is reached soon, it will take months before the backlogs are cleared and supply lines get back to normal. The crisis however goes much deeper, because the current situation is the result of a catastrophic set of errors by the Trump administration. We have been witnessing the astonishing picture of one of the greatest powers the world has ever known wilfully weaken and undermine itself so that it no longer is either willing or able to play its accustomed role in the international system.

This is not an easy aspect of the current crisis to address for governments closely allied with the United States. They do not want to give up on the multitude of defence and security arrangements, including NATO, that have bound them together and have led them to look to Washington for leadership. It is even more awkward to acknowledge that one reason for this is that the President is unhinged, uninhibited in launching insults at foreign leaders, including the Pope, and with no coherent agenda other than servicing his own ego.

His ‘MAGA’ coalition is already fracturing, as its hero has blundered into exactly the sort of Middle Eastern war he was pledged to avoid. Perhaps the current dramas will become too much even for his own party and cabinet to bear, although there are no signs of that happening yet. Eventually he will leave office but by the time he does so the world will be a different place.

However difficult it might be to talk about this aspect of the current crisis candidly it is essential that ways are found to do so, because only then can the full implications for the UK and its European partners be appreciated.