The Overshoot

What happens to politics, and the country, as net migration collapses?

Politics has a tendency to lag reality. MPs and commentators spend a lot of time responding to trends that are already over or reversing. Immigration is the latest example. It’s been the dominant issue of recent years, partly because of increased media focus, but mostly because there had been a big jump in both irregular and legal migration.

But net migration is now falling fast, and is already back down to pre-Brexit levels. Voters haven’t noticed yet – public opinion also lags. They will, though, feel the impact, especially if, as looks very likely, numbers keep falling following further restrictions introduced by this government. It’s even possible we’ll see net emigration at some point in the next few years. The economy could take a substantial hit, necessitating further tax rises, and we could see labour shortages in critical sectors.

The reversal of the immigration trend will also change the broader narrative around politics as we head towards the next election. Reform’s rise has been very dependent on public concern about rising numbers. It has become the critical issue for the entire right-wing politico/media complex. As such papers like the Daily Mail daren’t declare victory, despite rapidly falling numbers, for fear of losing their core source of grievance. But sustaining the level of rage we’ve seen in recent years is going to get more difficult. Which doesn’t mean they won’t try.

In the rest of this post I’ll look at why we’re seeing numbers fall so fast, extrapolate forward a few years, look at the economic and social impacts and consider what it could mean for politics in the second half of the decade.