Later this week I’ll be starting on the previews for every constituency. Most of these in England are Labour vs. Conservative, or Lib Dem vs. Conservative fights. There are a couple of Labour vs Green battles (Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central) and a few Labour vs Lib Dem ones (like Sheffield Hallam).
In Scotland most are SNP vs a unionist party (usually Labour). In Wales there are a few seats Plaid have a chance of winning. But these are all known and modellable factors. You can apply national polling to them with adjustments for regional, demographic, or tactical variables.
But then there are the seats that no model or MRP can deal with properly because there is an unusual circumstance – typically a high profile independent. While sideshows to the main event, these seats are likely to produce some of the more colourful moments during the campaign. So let’s take a look at which constituencies will be the odd ones out this time.
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