The lifeline election (part one)

Can the Democrats take control of Congress?

Those of us who write about elections often try and generate interest by claiming they’re exceptionally important, but with the US midterms later this year hype feels justified.

If the Democrats win both House and Senate they can slow the increasingly out-of-control President down considerably. They could block appointments, subpoena administration members, stop budgets passing, and set off any number of investigations into White House malfeasance.

This wouldn’t stop Trump doing any further damage. He would still control the military (though not its budget) and have significant leeway over domestic policy. The Department of Justice could continue to intimidate opponents on his behalf. While a Democrat House could impeach him (for a third time), he would not be removed from office as that requires a two thirds majority in a subsequent Senate trial. Even in areas where Congress does have authority he could refuse to comply, sparking constitutional crises.

It would, though, make life much harder for the President, and put him in a position he’s never had to deal with. In 2018 he lost the House, which gummed up the final two years of his first administration, but Republicans extended their advantage in the Senate. He’s also behaved with even greater disregard for basic norms this time around, which means there’s a lot more for his opponents to investigate.

The Democrats have been odds on to take the House for some time (betting markets now have an 85% liklihood). The Republicans only hold it by four seats (218-214) and have fallen well behind in the polls. They’ve gerrymandered the Texas map to add a few more seats, but the Democrats are doing the same in California and Virginia, cancelling out any advantage. There would have to be a substantial swing back towards the Republicans for them to hold, which seems unlikely given nothing Trump is doing at the moment is going to make him more popular. Americans tend not to reward high petrol prices.

Until recently the Senate had been considered a much tougher ask, with the Democrats needing four seats to take control, and only two obvious swing state opportunities in Maine and North Carolina, as well as a couple of tricky holds. But Trump’s falling approval ratings, and candidate choices in key seats, have put a whole bunch of other states into play. Prediction markets are now split 50/50 on who will win overall control.

In the rest of the post I’ll look in detail at the nine key Senate contests that will decide the outcome and assess the Democrats’ chances. Any discussion of the midterms naturally raises the question as to what Trump and his team might do to try and prevent a fair contest. So in part two, which I’ll post later this week, I look at how he might try to do so and how serious a threat it represents.