The Epic Olympics Preview

Every sport. Every Team GB medal chance.

Don’t worry, you haven’t accidentally subscribed to a sports substack. We’ll be straight back to politics and international relations next time.

But what’s the point in having a newsletter if you can’t use it for the occasional self-indulgent post? I’ve been an Olympics obsessive since, aged eleven, I was entranced by the opening credits for the Barcelona games in 1992. For the Rio and Tokyo games I provided extensive twitter commentary and preview threads (I’ll be doing it again this time). So I thought I’d offer a longer 8.5k word preview on here too.

Why do I love the Olympics so much? Partly just because I love sport and there’s no other event which offers 15 hours a day of coverage every day for 16 days. The sheer volume of content – across so many sports – is engrossing.

It’s also because it provides a rhythm to life. I remember lying in my teenage bedroom, in the middle of the night, watching the flashbulbs explode as Michael Johnson tore to a new 200m world record; jumping manically around our tiny first rental flat as Kelly Holmes finally won a global 800m title in Athens; and bouncing my baby daughter on my knee as I stayed up late to watch Adam Peaty smash the world record in the Rio pool.

But most of all it’s because there is nothing else in sport – and few things in life – that offer moments of such pure emotional intensity and release. For most athletes at the Olympics is it one of just a handful of moments when they can achieve success in the public eye, possibly the only moment. If a top footballer plays badly in a game, even the biggest ones, there’s always another opportunity. That’s not true for an athlete like Holmes whose two minute performance made the difference between a life of accolades and being an obscure pub quiz question.

Look at the expression on her face when she realises she’s won that 800m. Or Chris Hoy when he wins the track cycling sprint in Beijing. Or Max Whitlock when he clocks that he’s won the floor title in Rio. There is nothing else like it. I know about the corruption issues within the IOC. I know about all the challenges with doping. But nothing can cancel out the drama in those faces.

The great sportswriter Simon Barnes once summed it up perfectly: “everywhere you look at the Olympics someone is having the best day of their life”. How could you not want to watch that?

Sport-by-sport preview

What follows in the rest of the post are previews for each of the 32 sports featuring in this Olympics. The bulk of each preview is focused on assessing every Team GB medal opportunity, giving dates for each key final. I’ve also highlighted some of the big international names to look out for. At the end of each section there is a range for the potential GB medals and golds in that sport.

At the end of the post I’ve added up my medal ranges for each event and given a final prediction for the number of medals, and golds, I think GB will win. And who the top six on the medal table will be.

A quick note on TV coverage: the BBC will have a main channel that will hop around trying to cover the main events, and a secondary stream featuring one other event. But the main Olympic rights are now held by Discovery Plus, which means if you want to pick and choose what to watch you have to pay for their monthly streaming plan. If you’re a casual viewer this probably isn’t necessary, but if you’re interested in specific events or want to keep proper track of what’s going on I’d recommend. It’s just £3.99 a month and can be cancelled afterwards.

Aquatics

This is really four sports under one category that all just happen to involve a swimming pool. So we’ll run through each in turn.

Artistic swimming

5^th-10^th August

Two medal events

Also known as synchronised swimming, this is not an event GB has any medal success in to date. But this year we have a pair in the duet – Kate Shortman and Izzy Thorpe – who have a real chance of a podium place. They won silver at the world championships and gold at the Paris test event.

It’s a great story, their Mums competed as a team in the 1990s and almost made the Atlanta Olympics. Izzy’s is now their coach. They only came 14^th in Tokyo but recent rule changes that emphasise technical skill over subjective assessment of artistic flair have helped them enormously. Their final is on the evening of the 10^th August. China are the traditionally dominant nation in the sport and will likely win the team event.

Diving

27^th July – 10^th August

Eight medal events

The four synchro events (with two divers trying to do the same dive at the same speed) are in week one, with the individual events in week two. GB has qualified entrants for every category and there are good medal chances. At the recent world championships the team got a top eight finish in all Olympic categories and four medals.

On the men’s side the two synchro events are the best bets. Tom Daley – competing in his fifth Olympics aged just 30 – is going in the 10m with Noah Williams (29^th July). He won gold last time with the now retired Matty Lee. Jack Laugher and Anthony Harding go in the 3m (2^nd August).

On the women’s side there are, again, medal chances in both synchro events. Andrea Spendolini-Sirieix (daughter of TV’s Fred Sirieix) and Lois Tolson go in in the 10m (31^st July). Scarlett Mew Jensen and Yasmin Harper go in the 3m and could be GB’s first medal of the games (27^th July). Both teams won bronze at the worlds. Spendolini-Sirieix also won individual bronze and is probably the best chance of an individual medal, though others are also capable. China swept all the golds in Olympic events at the worlds and will, as usual, dominate.  

Swimming

27^th July – 4^th August (pool)

8^th/9^th August (marathon)

37 medal events

Swimming has the most medal events apart from athletics and is the focus for evening TV in week one, before track and field gets going. In terms of overall quality and depth this is probably going to be the best swimming tournament of all time. Expect a lot of world records and some intensely competitive rivalries. In Tokyo GB got eight medals, four of them gold – their best ever swimming performance. That’s unlikely to be repeated given how tough the competition is. But it’s still an impressive team, especially on the men’s side.

Our men’s freestylers are the strongest element of the squad. Ben Proud has the second fastest 50m time in the world this year and has a real shot at gold, though Australia’s Cam McEvoy is favourite (2^nd August). Our 200m freestyle team is ridiculously strong – Tokyo Olympic champion Tom Dean didn’t even make the top two at the British trials and so is only competing in the relay. The two that did, Matt Richards and Duncan Scott, could both make the podium, though Romanian’s David Popovici is in brilliant form and the likely gold winner (29^th July). Scott could also get a medal in the 200 individual medley, which is his “fun” event but in which he is still one of the best in the world (2^nd August).

In the 200m relay GB are favourites, and will attempt a new world record in the final (30^th July). The other big story on the men’s side is Adam Peaty attempting to win the 100m breaststroke for the third time in a row, something no Brit has done in the pool before. He is not the favourite, China’s Qin Haiyang is the world champion, but Peaty does have the fastest time of 2024, set at the British trials. The event is one of the earliest in the schedule with the final on the first Sunday evening (28^th July).

Outside medal chances for the men include Matt Richards in the 100m free (but the event is stacked – 31^st July); Max Litchfield in the 400 individual medley (he’s come fourth the last two times and is currently ranked…fourth – 28^th July); and the two other men’s relays – 4 x 100m (on the first evening – 27^th July) and the medley (4^th August). Also look out for youngster Ollie Morgan in the 100m backstroke, he’s a bit off medal pace but he broke the British record at trials and is improving fast (29^th July).

The women’s side is, again, weaker (all our medals in Tokyo bar the mixed medley relay were from the men’s side), in part because Australia and the US are just so dominant. The only even outside individual medal chances (unless someone improves dramatically since the British trials) will be Freya Colbert in the 400 individual medley, she’s the world champion but the best swimmers in the event didn’t compete in that event (Canada’s 17 year old Summer McIntosh is about ten seconds quicker than anyone else – 29^th July); and the rapidly improving Angharad Evans who smashed the 100m breaststroke British record at the trials and put herself in real contention (29^th July).

The women’s 4x200 relay team could also get a bronze (the US and Australia will win gold and silver, in some order, in all the women’s relays – 1^st August) and the mixed medley team is something of an unknown quantity (3^rd August). It depends a lot on how fast Peaty is going on the breaststroke leg.

Outside of Team GB expect McIntosh to be the breakout star. And American distance freestyler Katie Ledecky will get a lot of attention, as she is likely to add more gold to the seven she already has from three previous Olympics, despite being only 27. On the men’s side home favourite Leon Marchand is going for four individual golds and could break his own 400 individual medley world record.

In the second week of the games we have the marathon swimming, in open water, over 10km down the (now clean) Seine. Hector Pardoe, going for GB in the men’s event, won world championship bronze earlier this year (9^th August).

Water Polo

27^th July – 11^th August

Two medal events

As with most team sports the competition runs across the games and there are medal events for men and women. It’s not a sport GB have any history in, and we’re not competing in it this time either. The last two men’s golds have been won by Serbia and the US are dominant on the women’s side. Not, it has to be said, the most watchable of Olympic sports.

Aquatics GB medal range: 8-15

Gold range: 1-3

Archery

25^th July – 4^th August

Five medal events

Traditionally one of the first sports to start, with a ranking round before the opening ceremony (as is happening again this year). It’s not one where GB has a great record, we’ve only won four medals since it was reintroduced to the games in 1972, and the last one was in 2004.

But this time we do have potential – on the women’s side. 19 year old Penny Healey had an extraordinary season last year, winning several world cup golds and becoming number one in the world. She’s not been quite as good so far this year but is still performing at a high level. The more experienced Bryony Pitman, who competed at Tokyo, also achieved a number one rank last year (though has now dropped out of the top ten). So look out for the women’s team (28^th July) and women’s individual (3^rd August) finals.

South Korea will, again, be the dominant nation. They won four out of the five golds last time. But archery is prone to upsets, especially in the individual where it has a tournament format, so one bad performance can knock you out.

GB medal range: 0-2

Gold range: 0-1

Athletics

1^st August – 11^th August

48 medal events

The biggest event of the Olympics both in terms of medals (15% of all of them) and coverage – being the main focus for evenings in the second week. It also has the deepest talent pool and the most countries competing, so it’s hard to win medals. GB got five in Tokyo but no golds, something that hadn’t happened since the disastrous Atlanta games.

The squad is stronger this time, with more chances, and fairly evenly balanced between men and women.

Starting with the women, we have a solid sprint team with Daryll Neita and Dina Asher-Smith going in the 100m and 200m (3^rd August and 6^th August). Neither would be favourites for a medal, with strong US and Jamaican teams, plus St Lucia’s Julien Alfred going very well. But they’d hope to make finals and give it a shot. The 4x100 relay squad is strong enough to get on the podium, and would be disappointed at missing out (9^th August).

The middle distances are our real strength (for both sexes). In the 400m Amber Anning, who races in the States, has a PB time from this season that should get her to the final if she can repeat it (9^th August). But it’s the 800m that is the most exciting event for GB. Keely Hodgkinson is the favourite, having won silver in Tokyo as a teenager. She has the fastest time in the world this year and America’s Athing Mu, who beat her last time, fell in the US trials and hasn’t qualified.

Hodgkinson’s main competition might come from Kenya’s Mary Moraa, who beat her at the Commonwealth games last year, but Hodgkinson has better form. The real wildcard is another Brit, the astonishing Phoebe Gill, who at 17 smashed the European under-18 record early in the season, and then beat Jemma Reekie (ranked 5^th in the world) at the trials. It’s not impossible that three Brits could be in the final, and who knows what Gill is capable of (5^th August).

In the 1500m we have Laura Muir, who got a silver last time and just broke her own British record. Unfortunately for her it’s a stacked event in Paris. Kenya’s Faith Kipyegon is close to nailed on for the gold, having just broken the world record. Ethiopia’s Gudaf Tsegay and Australia’s Jessica Hull are also both going faster than Muir has ever gone. The best chance for Muir (and fellow GB team member Georgia Bell) is if the start of the race is slower and more tactical, but it doesn’t seem likely (10^th August).

In the field Molly Caudery has had a breakthrough pole vault season and has the highest height in the world this year. Though she hasn’t quite been at that level more recently. She’d hope for a medal at least (7^th August). And double heptathlon world champion Katerina Johnson-Thompson will be trying to break her Olympic duck, having had to withdraw last time. She hasn’t had great preparation and Belgium’s Nafi Thiam is strong favourite (9^th August).

Moving over to men’s track (we have no men’s field hopefuls which is a sad reflection of decline in these events over many years) it’s another solid squad. America’s Noah Lyles will probably dominate the sprints (and is aiming for four golds, which would make him the standout star of the games, as he’s also an extreme extrovert). But Louis Hinchliffe and Zharnel Hughes would hope to make the 100m final (4^th August), and for Hughes the 200m too (8^th August), though he is coming back from injury. The relay squad should, like the women’s, be capable of a medal if they can hold on to the baton.

The 400m could be one of the races of the games, there are 16 men under 44.50 this year, an unprecedented depth of talent. GB have two of the 16. Matt Hudson-Smith, who, last weekend got the fastest time of the year – a new European record – and Charlie Dobson (aka the Ginger Ninja). Both would hope to get to the final and Hudson-Smith is now one of the favourites for gold, alongside America’s Quincy Hall (7^th August).

In the 800m, Ben Pattison, who got a surprise bronze at the world championships last year, has gone second fastest on the all time GB list, behind Seb Coe, this year. But it’s another stacked event, he probably needs it to be slow to have a medal chance. Algeria’s Djamel Sedjati is looking very good for the gold (10^th August).

Along with Hudon-Smith, the best chance for GB gold on the men’s side is the 1500m where Josh Kerr has a thrilling rivalry with tempermental Norwegian star Jakob Ingebrigtsen. Kerr beat him at the worlds last year but Ingebrigtsen looks strong again. It should be a great race (6^th August).

GB should be able to get medals in all the relays – though women’s 400m is a stretch (10^th August). We could be very competitive in the mixed relay, which is on the first Saturday, if our best athletes compete (Hudson-Smith, Dobson, Anning…) but we have an annoying tendency to not take that race seriously and let weaker runners compete while giving the stars a rest (3^rd August).

Looking beyond Team GB there are intriguing match-ups everywhere. Netherlands’ Femke Bol vs America’s Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (who broke the world record again earlier in the season) in the 400m hurdles (8^th August). Norway’s Karsten Warholm vs Brazil’s Alison Dos Santos in the men’s version (9^th August). Sweden’s Mondo Duplantis vs the world record in the pole vault (5^th August). And Ukraine’s brilliant young high jumper Yaroslava Mahuchikh trying to beat the record she set a few weeks ago (4^th August).

GB medal range: 5-10

Gold range: 1-4

Badminton

 27^th July – 5^th August

Five medal events

GB have only won one Badminton medal since 2004 (a bronze in Rio). That’s unlikely the change this year. Kirsty Gilmour is in the women’s singles and Sean Vendy/Ben Lane in the men’s doubles, but neither are top ten ranked. Denmark have, rather surprisingly, become the top men’s nation in the sport and South Korea on the women’s side.

Basketball

27^th July – 11^th August

Four medal events

There are now two different versions of basketball at the Olympics. The normal kinds and the faster 3x3 played on a half court. The US are the dominant nation and their main men’s team include a roster of NBA stars including LeBron James and Steph Curry. But other nations have their stars too. Victor Wembanyama is playing for hosts France, who got silver last time, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is Greece’s flagbearer. There is no GB involvement.

Boxing

27^th July – 10^th August

13 medal events

Olympic boxing is in the doghouse following serious problems with the governing body. It’s currently suspended from the 2028 games and could be cut from the games. The nature of amateur boxing and the qualification systems makes it very hard to assess medal chances. Team GB have qualified six boxers, three men and three women. Whether they proceed to medal bouts will depend a lot on the draw (and judging). Probably the best chance of a gold is the excellently named Delicious Orie in the men’s super-heavyweight, where GB has a strong track record (10^th August). Bantamweight Charley Davison (8^th August) and Welterweight Rosie Eccles (9^th August) are worth keeping an eye on too.

GB medal range: 0-2

Gold range: 0-1

Breaking

9^th August – 10^th August

Two medal events

Breaking, or breakdancing, is the novelty event of these games. It’s appearing for the first and probably only time (it’s not on the schedule for 2028). It is exactly what it sounds like, “b-boys” and “b-girls” undertake a lot of complex, athletic, dance moves and get judged and ranked. It should be fun at least. There’s no GB involvement and the best performing nations are typically France (which is why they wanted it in the games) and the US.

Canoe

27^th July – 10^th August

Six slalom medal events and ten sprint events

Olympic canoeing is split into two types. In the first week we have the slalom, essentially racing around obstacles on a whitewater track. And in week two there are the sprint events: straight racing on flat water.

This time around Team GB have a superb slalom team – with three of the four members being current world champions, and no sprint team at all.

In slalom there are four time trial events – kayak and canoe for both men and women. In these our best chances are Joe Clarke in the kayak (1^st August) – he’s current world champion and Rio gold medallist – and Mallory Franklin in the women’s canoe – also world champion and Tokyo silver medallist (31^st July).

Then we have one of very few new events in existing sports: kayak cross. This is a proper race of four boats (there are rounds to qualify for the final) down the whitewater course. It is very entertaining with some pretty aggressive manoeuvres. Clarke is very good at it, he’s world champion in that too. And Kimberley Woods is the women’s champion (both finals 5^th August). It would be disappointing if that squad won no golds.

The sprints are usually strong for Germany, Poland and other Eastern European countries. China have identified it as a fairly weak sport in terms of competition and have a large squad, despite not having much history in the event.  

GB medal range: 2-4

Gold range: 1-3

Cycling

27^th July – 11^th August

22 medal events

The third biggest medal sport at the games and the one that has been the most productive for GB since Beijing. At Tokyo the team won six golds and twelve medals. It’s split across four different bike types which we’ll take in turn.

Road

There are time trials for men and women on the first full day of the games and then road races the following weekend. The road races can produce real surprises given the small national teams make it harder to provide support for a key rider than on the tours. But the Belgians and Dutch look strong in the men and women’s races. In the men’s race Tadej Pogačar, was due to race, following his Tour de France triumph but has withdrawn with exhaustion (3^rd August). GB have teams in both with capable riders. Lizzie Deignan, who won silver back in London 2012, might be the best medal chance, but is not one of the favourites (4^th August).

In the time trials we do have one of the favourites, 20 year old Josh Tarling, who got a world championship bronze last year and is improving fast. The betting markets have him winning gold ahead of the experienced Italian Filippo Ganna. That would propel him even quicker to stardom (27^th July). Anna Henderson goes in the women’s time trial on the same day.

Mountain Bike

We have the favourite for the men’s mountain bike race: Tokyo champion Tom Pidcock, who is also competing in the road race. He had to pull out of the Tour de France with covid but as long as he’s fit he’s comfortably the technical strongest mountain biker (29^th July). Evie Richards will be looking to challenge for a medal in the women’s race but France’s Pauline Ferrand-Prevot is odds on favourite (28^th July).

BMX

Rather surprisingly GB won two of the four BMX golds in Tokyo and won medals in the other two events as well. In the freestyle (think skate park tricks) Charlotte Worthington is defending champion but is not in the same form at the moment. On the men’s side, though, Kieran Reilly is the current world champion and one of the favourites (Both finals 31^st July).

BMX racing round a winding, undulating, track, is a great, fairly recent, addition to the games. In Tokyo Beth Shriever won gold and Kye Whyte silver, but neither have been in that kind of form recently and both are coming back from injuries (there are *a lot* of crashes)  (Both finals 2^nd August).

Track

The track has been where GB has had its greatest success ever since Beijing. Indeed the three golds won in Tokyo (out of twelve available) was something of a comedown after six in Rio and seven in London. The team is strong again, though has been weakened by a freak injury to women’s endurance star Katie Archibald, who fell over a step in her garden and is out of the games.

GB are nevertheless still favourite for one of three women’s endurance events: the team pursuit (7^th August). And probably in the highly unpredictable madison too (the one where two cyclists from each nation swap in and out of the main race with hand slings). GB’s Neah Evans and Elinor Barker are world champions (9^th August). Evans will probably also go in the omnium (11^th August). Archibald would have been competing in that if fit (and would have been favourite).

On the men’s endurance side the team pursuiters should be in the mix, it’s hard to judge their form as they crashed out of the world championships in qualifying (7^th August). Likewise they should be competitive in the madison (10^th August). Former double world champion Ethan Hayter will likely be GB’s competitor in the omnium (four different races in one day adding up to an overall points total – 8^th August).

Moving to the sprints, the women’s team is led by 21 year old Emma Finucane – the sprint and Keirin world champion and big favourite for both (August 8^th and 11^th). She leads the team sprint team too who will be battling with Germany for top spot (5^th August), and so could win three golds. On the men’s side the Netherlands’ Harrie Lavreysen is dominant. GB’s Jack Carlin should be in the mix for sprint (9^th August) and keirin (11^th August) medals and the team will also be looking for a medal place (6^th August).

Overall a very strong squad but it’s such a shame about Archibald.

GB cycling medal range: 8-16

Gold range: 4-8

Equestrian

27^th July – 6^th August

Six medal events

Another one of the “sitting down” (and expensive) sports that had traditionally been strong for GB. At Tokyo there were two golds and five medals. It should be similar this time. There are three different equestrian events with individual and team competitions in all of them: dressage, eventing and show jumping.

Dressage (horse dancing) is quite relaxing to watch but has an impenetrable scoring system. Charlotte Dujardin, who has three golds from London and Rio, was due to return but has withdrawn at the last minute after a video emerged of her mistreating a horse. Even without her the team is solid and could win a medal, probably behind Germany and Denmark (3^rd August). Dujardin’s team mate Charlotte Fry was always the better bet for an individual medal anyway (4^th August).

GB’s strongest event of the three is eventing – which involves competing in dressage, a cross-country time trial and jumping over three days. Three members of the team – Rosalind Canter, Tom Mcewen, and Yasmin Ingham – are in the top five world rankings (and one of the other five is British too but not competing). As such they are favourites to win both golds and could win more than one individual medal (Final day 29^th July).

As for showjumping we have the returning individual champion from Tokyo – Ben Maher – who has a chance to repeat that (6^th August). The team is not as strong and not one of the favourites (2^nd August).

GB medal range: 3-6

Gold range: 1-3

Fencing

27^th July – 4^th August

Twelve medal events

Team GB hasn’t won a fencing medal since 1964, but this will be the first year since 1904 that we’ve had no entrants at all, which is a little sad, as it’s fun to watch. It’s not a sport with a single dominant nation – especially now Russia aren’t competing. So expect medals to be spread between east Asian countries – South Korea, China and Japan have all qualified big teams – and France, Poland, and the US are all strong too.

The events cover individual and team competitions for three different blade types – épée, foil and sabre. The foil is a shorter sword that scores from touches on the opponent with the tip. Épée is similar but the sword is longer. Sabre points can be scored with the side of the blade as well as the tip.

Football

24^th July – 10^th August

Two medal events

As with tennis and golf I’m ambivalent about football being at the Olympics. I always feel like if it’s not the biggest event for your sport it doesn’t quite fit. For the men it’s made even weirder by the rule that most players have to be under-23 for no obvious reason. There’s no GB team for men or women. We would have qualified for the men’s tournament by virtue of England winning the under-21 Euros last year but there is no agreement between the UK federations so they can’t use the spot. England women can represent GB, as they did last time, but failed to qualify. Annoying.

The men’s favourite are France (with Thierry Henry as coach); Spain and Argentina. For the women it’s France, Spain and the US.

Golf

1^st August – 10^th August

Two medal events

Another sport where the Olympics isn’t the biggest event but most of the top ten for men and women are playing. Beyond that the fields get a bit weaker than a major just because so many of the top players are American and they are only allowed four slots. Rory McIlroy is playing for Ireland. GB is represented by Tommy Fleetwood (the 9^th ranked golfer in the field) and Matt Fitzpatrick on the men’s side; and Charley Hull (ranked 10^th) and Georgia Hall on the women’s. Justin Rose won the gold medal in 2016 so we do have some history.

GB medal range: 0-1

Gold range: 0

Gymnastics

27^th July  - 10^th August

18 medal events

Most of the gymnastics medals are in the artistic competition, but there are two each for trampolining and rhythmic gymnastics as well.

It’s a sport where Team GB have massively improved. They won no medals at all from 1928 to 2008, when Louis Smith broke the duck with a pommel bronze. Since then the team won four in London, eight in Rio, and three in Tokyo. The Rio number will be a stretch this time but three is achievable again.

The men’s team is stronger, and has a chance in the team event but will probably finish fourth or fifth (29^th July). Likewise Jake Jarman, our best all-around man, will probably miss the medals in that event (31^st July). But, assuming they qualify (which is always a big question mark, given one error effectively knocks you out), there are three strong individual event chances: Jarman in the vault, where is he world and European champion (4^th August); Max Whitlock in the pommel horse (for the third time in a row if he does it – 3^rd August); and Luke Whitehouse on the floor, where he is European champion (3^rd August).

The women’s team that won bronze last time, has been sadly weakened by the absence of both Gadirova twins through injury. That makes a team medal this time unlikely (30^th July). Probably the best individual chance is Becky Downie, who’s returned to the team at 32, on the uneven bars – she has numerous international medals on the apparatus, and even has a move named after her (4^th August). It will be very difficult though. China have a strong team, and, in one of the stories of the games, the brilliant Simone Biles is back for the US after her difficulties in Tokyo.

GB has no competitors in rhythmic gymnastics (where they dance with the ribbon and ball). But in trampolining Bryony Page will be looking for her third consecutive medal. Since Tokyo, where she won bronze, she’s won two world championship golds, so she has a good shot at top spot (2^nd August).

GB medal range: 2-5

Gold range: 1-2

Handball

24^th July – 8^th August

Two medal events

I’ve never understood why Handball hasn’t caught on at all in the UK, given that it is popular in much of Western Europe. It’s fun to watch too but barely gets any coverage on the BBC because (apart from 2012) we never compete in it. Anyway France will be looking to do the men and women’s double like they did in Tokyo. Other strong contenders include Spain and the Scandinavian countries.

Hockey

27^th July – 9^th August

Two medal events

One of the few team sports events that GB does always participate in, and in which we’ve had some memorable victories – like the 1988 men’s win (“where were the Germans, and frankly who cares”) and the women’s surprise success in Rio. Both GB teams would hope to get out of the group stages, and both, especially the men, have a medal chance. But neither are favourites, with the low countries dominating internationally at the moment (Belgium for the men and Netherlands for the women).

GB medal range: 0-1

Gold range: 0

Judo

27^th July – 3^rd August

15 medal events

There are seven weight classes for men and women and then a mixed team event. GB have won 20 medals since it was introduced to the games in 1964 but never a gold. Five GB judokas have qualified this time – all women.

As with all events that follow a tournament structure, medal chances are often about luck of the draw and the occasional upset. But our best shot at a medal is probably Chelsie Giles in the -52kg category (28^th July). She won our only medal – a bronze – in Tokyo, and since then has been world number one for a period and become European champion. She’s currently fifth ranked but has been on good form recently. Lucy Renshall will also hope to make the podium in the -63kg in her second Olympics. She has also made it to world number one in the past but has dropped down the rankings a bit since (30^th July).  

Globally the sport is, unsurprisingly, dominated by Japan – who won nine of the 15 golds in Tokyo. But France are strong too, they won the mixed team event in Tokyo, and their superstar heavyweight Teddy Riner will be looking to win a third gold medal (2^nd August).

GB medal range: 0-2

Gold range: 0-1

Pentathlon

8^th August – 11^th August

Two medal events

The only sport that was specifically invented for the (modern) Olympics – involving swimming, fencing, showjumping and a run in which competitors have to stop to shoot targets. It’s based on the skills a Victorian era soldier would have needed.

It’s fair to say it’s never really caught on outside the Olympics and organisers keep trying to drop it but it keeps hanging in there. This will the last competition in this format as for 2028 – in a bit of purposeless vandalism – they’ve replaced the showjumping (on an unknown horse so excellent comedy value) with an obstacle course, like it’s a school sports day.

Anyway GB has a good track record in it, winning both golds in Tokyo. And both those winners – Joe Choong and Kate French – are back for another go. Our other entry on the women’s side, Kerenza Bryson, is also won of the world’s best. The men’s final race is on the 10^th August, and the women’s on the 11^th August.

GB medal range: 1-3

Gold range: 1-2

Rowing

27^th July – 3^rd August

14 medal events

A mainstay of morning coverage during the first week and traditionally, like all the expensive sitting down sports, a good one for GB. But Tokyo was a bit of a disaster – only two medals and no golds for the first time since 1980. There has been a complete overhaul and rebuild since then and the team is coming into Paris in much better shape. Six of the ten boats they qualified go in as favourite in their event. The includes the men’s pair of Ollie Wynne-Griffith and Tom George (2^nd August), plus the men’s four in which we have such a strong history (1^st August), and men’s eight (3^rd August).

On the women’s side, Emily Graig and Imogen Grant in the lightweight double sculls might be the strongest gold chance in the entire GB squad – they haven’t lost a single race since the last Olympics (2^nd August). The women’s quad sculls (31^st July) and four (1^st August) are also favourites. (If you’re wondering – rowers have one oar each and scullers two).

Of our remaining four boats, two would hope for medals as well – the men’s quad sculls (31^st July) and the women’s eights (3^rd August). It should be the biggest improving sport from Tokyo and boost the chances of a higher medal count overall.

 GB medal range: 5-8

Gold range: 3-6

Rugby Sevens

24^th July – 30^th July

Two medal events

A really great addition to recent Olympics (it doesn’t violate the rule football breaks because in the sevens format it is the biggest prize in the sport). Sadly the GB men – who won silver in Rio – failed to qualify. But the final rounds will be a great watch, with France, New Zealand and Australia the favourites. The brilliant Antoine Dupont decided to focus on sevens this year, for a home Olympics, which makes France favourites. (Finals on the 27^th July).

On the women’s side GB did qualify and will hope to get out of their group but Portia Woodman’s New Zealand are the very strong favourites.

GB medal range: 0-1

Gold range: 0

Sailing

28^th July – 8^th August

Ten medal events

Another strong event for GB – the team have come top of the sailing medal table in five of the last six Olympics. Our sailors don’t really get the acclaim they deserve because it is not a TV friendly sport, though recent improvements in graphics have made it easier to follow.

This squad is perhaps not quite as strong as last time, but we’ve still qualified boats in all ten classes. Five look like potential medallists. John Gimson and Anna Burnet are ranked first in the world in the Nacra 17 class, and won silver last time (medal race – 7^th August). Michael Beckett in the ILCA 7 class (6^th August), and Ellie Aldridge in the Formula Kite class (8^th August), are also both ranked in the top three in the world. Freya Black and Saskia Tidey in the 49erFX class (1^st August), and Emma Wilson in the iQFOIL (windsurfing – 2^nd August) are top six ranked.

Beyond GB there are no dominant nations in sailing – basically rich countries with a lot of coastline tend to be competitive.

GB medal range: 2-5

Gold range: 1-3

Shooting

27^th July – 5^th August

15 medal events

Shooting is usually a big medal event for China and the US. GB win the odd medal but it’s not a big sport in terms of lottery funding. Nevertheless we have a decent squad this time with a couple of medal chances. In the men’s trap we have Matthew Coward-Holley who won a bronze in Tokyo and is third ranked in the world, and Nathan Hales, who won a world championship silver and currently holds the world record for the event (30^th July).

On the women’s side we have Seonaid McIntosh – daughter of two champion shooters – in the 10m (29^th July) and 50m three position (2^nd August) rifle events. She is world number one in the latter and has numerous international medals.

Then there is Amber Rutter, who has been shooting for GB since aged 12. She competed at Rio aged 18, and was a favourite for the skeet event going into Tokyo but heartbreakingly caught covid just before the games and couldn’t go. She’s just had her first child but has decided to compete in Paris. If she could win a medal it would be a great story (4^th August).

GB medal range: 1-4

Gold range: 0-2

Skateboarding

27^th July – 7^th August

Four medal events

Olympic skateboarding comes in two forms – street and park. In the former competitors do tricks down a street course (e.g. steps and railings) and in the latter around a skatepark. The GB team spans an extraordinary age range. For women’s park we have Sky Brown, who competed as a 13 year old in Tokyo and won a bronze, so is now 16, and Lola Tambling who is 15. Brown is a favourite again, she also tried to qualify for the surfing but just missed out.

In men’s park we have Andy McDonald who is 50. He’s been doing it so long that there is a Game Boy game named after him. As someone a few years younger I’m just impressed his knees are still up to it.  

GB medal range: 0-1

Gold range: 0-1

Sport Climbing

5^th August – 10^th August

Four medal events

Climbing made its debut at Tokyo and was a success. But the format has been overhauled. Last time there was a single combined event that incorporated speed, boulder and lead climbing. But speed climbing is essentially a different sport so it didn’t make much sense. This time they’ve been separated out into two events.

GB have two men and two women competing in the boulder/lead event (which is about how far you can get rather than how quickly you can get there). Our best medal hope is teenage prodigy Toby Roberts who has become one of the top ranked climbers a few years into his career (9^th August). On the women’s side Erin McNeice, only 20, also has an outside medal chance and is improving fast (10^th August).

GB medal range: 0-2

Gold range: 0-1

Surfing

27^th July – 31^st July

Two medal events

Another of the new sports from Tokyo that’s stayed into the programme. As Paris isn’t an ideal location for surfing, the competition is taking place in Tahiti (the longest distance of an event from the host city since the equestrian events for Melbourne 1956 took place in Stockholm). There are no GB competitors (as Sky Brown, based in California, missed out). Unsurprisingly, Australia, US and Brazil have a lot of the strongest competitors.

Table Tennis

27^th July – 10^th August

Five medal events

GB have never won a table tennis medal and that’s not going to change this year. We do have two competitors. Anna Hursey, who was competing for Wales at the age of 10, and Liam Pitchford, back for his fourth games. The medals will, as ever, be dominated by China where table tennis is, essentially, the national sport.

Taekwondo

7^th August – 10^th August

Eight medal events

One of my favourite events to watch as (unlike Judo) it has regular point scoring and fights often have super tense conclusions as the right last second combo can rack up huge points. There are four weight classes each for men and women. Team GB has four entrants, each of who is capable of winning a medal, at least. The best known is “headhunter” Jade Jones – who famously won in London and then defended her title in Rio. She missed out in Tokyo, due to a very unlucky draw, but is looking for a third gold in the -57kg category (8^th August).

Rebecca McGowan got the selection for the +67kg category ahead of Bianca Cook (nee Walkden) who won bronzes in Rio and Tokyo. McGowan has won world championship silver (10^th August).

On the men’s side we have Bradley Sinden in the -68kg, he won silver in Tokyo and was the first British male world champion in 2019 (8^th August). And Caden Cunningham in the +80kg, who has been European champion (10^th August). All would at least hope to reach semi-finals.

GB medal range: 2-4

Gold range: 0-2

Tennis

27th July – 4^th August

Five medal events

The tennis tournament, at Roland Garros of course, will feature nearly all the world’s best minus some of the Russia and Belorussian stars (some will play under a neutral flag). Andy Murray’s final appearance in the singles will be his last professional game.

As for medal chances GB’s best hope is probably the men’s doubles where Neal Skupski will partner Joe Salisbury – both have number one in the world for doubles and both have won slams (though not together). The final is on the 3^rd August.

Jack Draper, Dan Evans and Cam Norrie are competing alongside Murray in the men’s singles and Katie Boulter has qualified for the women’s singles. She’ll also play with Heather Watson in the women’s doubles.

GB medal range: 0-1

Gold range: 0-1

Triathlon

30^th July – 5^th August

Three medal events

At Rio and Tokyo Team GB won medals in every triathlon event and that remarkably strong record could well continue at Paris. There are individual races for men and women and, since Tokyo, a mixed relay where each member of the team does a “sprint” version of the event. We won a memorable gold in that last time.

In the men’s we have Alex Yee who got a silver last time, but is now widely regarded as the world’s best. His main competitor is probably New Zealand’s Hayden Wilde, who came third last time. There are some strong French competitors too, who will have the advantage of a supportive crowd (30^th July).

In the women’s event we are blessed with three of the world’s best. World Champion Beth Potter, who goes in favourite; Georgia Taylor-Brown, who got silver in Tokyo; and Kate Waugh who is ranked 7^th in the world. Again the French are our strongest competitors, particularly Cassandre Beaugrand (31^st July).

Given the strength of the individual teams Team GB is also one of the relay favourites again, though Germany have a strong team who suit the shorter distances and will be hard to beat (5^th August).

GB medal range: 2-4

Gold range: 1-3

Volleyball

24^th July – 8^th August

Four medal events

The Olympics features both classic indoor volleyball and beach volleyball which, in Paris, will be taking place right in front of the Eiffel Tower. There is, as usual, no GB representation. The hosts will be hoping to retain the indoor men’s gold medal they won in Tokyo. Brazil and the US will be strong as usual. It rarely gets shown on the main BBC feed but if you have a Discovery plus subscription it’s worth watching, particularly the indoor version, where you get incredibly skilful and tense matches.

Weightlifting

7^th August – 11^th August

Ten medal events

One of the final events to get started, weightlifting can be thrilling to watch but the sport has struggled badly with doping and governance issues. It was dropped for 2028 before getting a lifeline and being reinstated. The gold medals will be dominated, again, by China. GB have one competitor – the wonderful Emily Campbell in the +81kg category, who won silver in Tokyo, our first weightlifting medal since 1984. She’s in with a good chance of another medal. Her event is on the final morning: 11^th August.

GB medal range: 0-1

Gold range: 0

Wrestling

1^st August – 7^th August

16 medal events

There are 12 freestyle wrestling categories (six each for men and women) and six Greco-Roman, which only men compete in. Team GB has no tradition in the sport and are sending no competitors to Paris. It’s dominated by former republics of the USSR, with Cuba and the US also strong. Japan are the strongest nation on the women’s side.

Overall predictions

Adding up all the lower and higher ranges for every sport gives the following numbers:

Overall GB medal range: 41-98

Gold range: 15-47

At the last two Olympics the midpoint on medals has been close to the final result so we’ll go with that again as a prediction:

69 medals

And adding a third of the difference to the lower end of the gold range has worked for that (naturally it’s harder to win golds). That gives us:

25 golds

Which is notably higher than betting projections, but in between our Rio and Tokyo numbers. So we’ll go with those.

Overall the US will win the most medals but they’ll be in a fight with China for most golds. China have a bunch of dominant sports - diving, table tennis, weightlifting etc - where they are almost guaranteed to win the bulk of the golds. Whereas the US are dependent on success in the pool and on the track, which tends to be more competitive.

If GB do win 25 golds they’ll probably come third again but France will be much stronger this time, as host nation, and will, I suspect, be in the 20s too. It could be quite close. Australia and Japan should make up the rest of the top six.

I hope you enjoyed the preview. Follow me on twitter (@samfr) for daily update threads and evening previews of the key things to watch the following day.