The Election in Scotland

Today’s post focuses on Scotland, which is engaged in a very different election to the one going on in England and Wales, but will be significant in deciding the size of Labour’s majority, and the country’s future.

It’s written by Mark McGeoghegan, an author, columnist, and pollster writing on Scottish politics and secessionism. He is also doctoral researcher at the University of Glasgow, completing a thesis on the political tactics of self-determination groups.

It’s a superb overview of Scottish politics since 2019 and the key battlegrounds this time, including some lovely maps.

There’s so much to come this week. We have a piece by Dylan tomorrow on all the records that could be broken on 4th July, plus loads of London seat previews over the next two days. And some really exciting pieces later in the week too.

---

The Election in Scotland

Winning a substantial number of seats in Scotland makes it easier for Labour to win general elections, albeit it’s only made the difference between victory and defeat twice: in 1966 and February 1974.

That might not mean much in an election in which Labour can expect a record-breaking win, but re-establishing themselves as the pre-eminent party of Scotland at Westminster could prove crucial in future, much closer elections.

Over and above the importance of Scotland as a battleground for this election, it is important in its own right – not least for all to the people who live here and the parties who seek to govern here – and as an ongoing battleground for the future of the Union itself. The constitutional question may be on the back burner for now, but it has not disappeared.

If Scots feel a tangible improvement in their material living conditions by the end of the next Parliament, the many pro-independence Scots currently intending to vote for Labour may well conclude that that vote was well-placed – and that the Union may be worth preserving, after all. If not, constitutional politics may be back on the menu rather quickly.

So, what is happening in Scotland in this election, what might we expect to happen, and why? I’ll set up the election campaign by laying out what happened in 2019 and the voting intention trends and key events since then. I’ll then set out the new Scottish political landscape and the standings of the parties, and lastly, I’ll get into the nitty-gritty of Scotland’s electoral geography and battlegrounds.