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Joe Egerton's avatar

As Lawrence Freedman observes, there is now an economic war between NATO and Russia. This must be subject to just war tests. I discussed these and their application to proposals to sanction Zimbabwe in mid 2008 when Mugabe's conduct became intolerable: https://www.thinkingfaith.org/sites/default/files/20080701_1.pdf. The article sets out the principles to be applied succinctly. I did not think that the case was made then in the particular circumstances of Zimbabwe. The facts over Russia and Putin are different and the just war tests appear to be met.

Back in the 1980s, when Germany and the UUSR first planned a pipeline, it was was arguable that to be weighed against Germany becoming exposed to the risk of the USSR cutting off supplies the USSR would be at risk of losing hard currency from Germany. I can recall this being carefully analysed at Oxford.

The mischief is not that some import of gas from Russia was regarded then as beneficial but subsequently allowing such a large risk to build up through successive investments in importing gas from Russia and reducing investment in other sources (e.g. nuclear). In the longer term, if Putin or his successors withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine then the ending of economic war should be on the basis of careful and ongoing monitoring of risks and probably some NATO and/or EU institutional arrangements to coordinate national policies to ensure that commercial and security considerations are properly weighed.

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Mark Segal's avatar

This is not the last throw of the dice. We have just heard this morning that Putin will be importing millions of dollars worth of rockets and shells from North Korea. And we have yet to see how European solidarity will hold-up over the long, cold winter to come.

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