The Defence Review and Operation Spiderweb

Two disparate but related events dominated the news cycle on Monday. The first was the publication of the long-awaited defence review, warning of a dangerous and immediate Russian threat. It contained some far-reaching proposals designed to address the threat, so raising inevitable questions of affordability, but also sought to be transformative in the way in which the Ministry of Defence goes about its business, especially but not solely when it comes to relations with industry.

The second event was the remarkable Ukrainian attack on Russian long-range bomber bases using short-range drones, brought close to their targets in an audacious special operation. The defence review is quite explicit about the extent to which it has drawn from Ukraine’s experiences in its war with Russia, and so this latest attack provides a compelling illustration of some of the themes that inform the review.

The Context

It is the natural response of then commentariat to every review to explain how its aspirations will be defeated by the Treasury. This one is no exception. A year ago, when the review was launched the issue was if and when the percentage share of GDP would move from 2.3% to 2.5%. Now it is if and when it will move to 3%, which is progress of sorts. But as this will be in the next parliament, and as we face a turbulent few years in the global economy, it is hard to be confident that when the moment comes the money will be found.

The review, and statements by the Prime Minister and Defence Secretary, also assume a rocky few years in global politics, so as always there is a tension between the urgency of the security challenges and the state of the economy. In the review the government seeks to square the circle by presenting defence spending as an important driver of growth. But the case for defence cannot depend on how it helps with an industrial strategy. It depends on making the country more secure.

It is possible that the international situation will turn out to be more benign than currently anticipated. That would soon lead to queries from the Treasury about whether spending could be reined in. As likely the situation will get worse before it gets better. Even during the review process the context changed with the arrival of the Trump administration, and the strong push for a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine War. It has now changed again as this push has fizzled out.