The Coming Storm - Part Two

(Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)

In the first half of this two-parter I looked at the immediate challenges Liz Truss will face when she takes over as Prime Minister in a week’s time. It took us up to her first conference speech in early October. But beyond that lie many more difficult months.

In a preview of Truss’s likely top team last week the well-connected FT journalist Sebastian Payne wrote:

“Truss plans to govern in two broad phases. The initial focus will be surviving her first 100 days in office up to Christmas as the cost of living crisis mounts. ‘The only story in town is going to be supporting people through the difficult times, basic things like heating, eating, employment and transport,’ one figure close to Truss said. Another campaign insider said: ‘We have to end this idea that Britain is broken, and tangibly improve people’s lives. If we can show people that the government is on their side, everyone will be in a better place come the new year.’

The second phase would begin in early 2023, with the new prime minister switching to delivering on her longer term agenda of reform. Preparations for those shifts would begin in the autumn, and her inner circle hopes that a year of implementing her policies would improve the Tory party’s standing ahead of the next general election.”

This is somewhat alarming as an analysis as it shows no indication they understand how bad things are about to get. The idea that the Government will be in a position to move on from the cost of living crisis in January seems implausible. Even with a substantial package of economic support the crisis isn’t going anywhere and the NHS’s problems are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

In this post we’ll look at the prospects for the winter and next year and the options available to Truss. But also at whether the sheer magnitude of what’s coming presents an opportunity for a more fundamental re-think of our current political settlement.