The Blessing and The Curse

Can Israel find an end game?

Hizbollah projectiles being intercepted by Israel near the northern city of Baqa al-Gharbiya on October 1, 2024. (Photo by AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP)

In addition to its unresolved conflicts on its northern and southern borders, and in the occupied territories of West Bank, Israel is now seeking to work out how to make Iran pay for its missile attacks of 1 October. It is also engaging with other members of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ – in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Add these up and it is potentially fighting on seven fronts, and perhaps an eighth if recent terror attacks conducted by individuals in Israel cities are included.

These fronts are not all equally active. The strategy of the Israeli Defence Forces has been to concentrate on each of the most dangerous ones in turn, which is why they started with Hamas before moving on to Hizbollah. There are now suggestions they will complete whatever they intends to do with Hizbollah before moving onto Iran, which potentially could be the most fateful campaign of all. Meanwhile the human cost of these wars grows daily. Even in areas where the fighting has subsided, relief and recovery reaches beleaguered communities only slowly.

This post is in two parts. In the first I republish, with their kind agreement, a piece I wrote for Saturday’s Financial Times. This helps explain the shift in Israel’s focus from Gaza to the rest of the ‘axis of resistance’ and which concludes with the question of whether if at all Israel can turn its military advantage into a political advantage. Can it bring some stability to its borders, including for those living on the other side? The answer is not so much that this is impossible but it is unlikely. The second part of the post follows on from this.

Part One: The retaliatory cycle has Iran and Israel firmly in its grip

There is a famous joke about a frog on the banks of the River Jordan. A scorpion asks for a ride across. “Why would I do that?” says the frog. “If you get on my back you will sting me.” The scorpion explains that he, too, would drown. Reassured the frog carries him, until halfway, the scorpion stings the frog. “Why?” cries the frog, “Now we are both doomed.” Because, comes back the reply, “this is the Middle East.”